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新古典增长理论
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企业家精神是一团淋漓“元气”
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-06 06:11
经济增长是一个令人着迷的巨大谜题。经济学大宗师卢卡斯曾有一句名言:"一旦我们开始思考经济增长问题,就很难再想别的。"以中国为例——改革开 放后,中国经济长期保持着接近8% 的年均增长率。经济学家们花了很大力气,试图解开这个"8%"的密码。其中4%—5% 可以用中国的高投资来解释,但 剩下的3%—4%,却只能归结到一个叫"全要素生产率"的黑箱子里。就连那看起来能解释的"高投资"本身,很可能也是这个黑箱子带来的结果。 要是再看看中国内部不同地区的情况,谜题就更复杂了。东南沿海的浙江,省内多是山区,地理条件并不算好。这些"穷山恶水",在历史上的大部分时间 都是"天高皇帝远"。就是这么一个地方,在改革开放后实现了骄人的经济增长。再比如浙江中部的义乌,三面群山环抱,没有海运港口,从地理上看并不 适合国际贸易,现在却成了全球小商品的流通中心。 张维迎的《重新理解企业家精神》,正是试图解开这个谜团的重要尝试。这本书凝聚了他四十年的思考,核心观点却可以用一句话说清:经济增长的真正 引擎,不是资本,不是"算法",也不是政府规划,而是企业家那种"非科学"的判断、警觉与想象力。 这不是一本温吞水的经济学科普,而是一部带着锋芒的理论 ...
余永定:可考虑推出新“四万亿”计划
和讯· 2025-06-04 10:03
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the concept of "consumption-driven" growth does not exist in the context of China's long-term economic strategy, which has historically been "investment-driven" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment vs. Consumption - The discussion on whether China's growth should be "investment-driven" or "consumption-driven" is fundamentally about long-term economic growth versus short-term macroeconomic adjustments [2][3]. - There is no theoretical basis for claiming that consumption can be a primary driver of economic growth; rather, investment is essential for sustained growth [4][5]. - Empirical studies indicate a negative correlation between consumption expenditure and economic growth, emphasizing the importance of investment in driving GDP [3][4]. Group 2: Relationship Between Consumption and Investment - Consumption and investment are not mutually exclusive; they represent choices between current and future consumption [6][7]. - High savings rates in East Asian countries, including China, have contributed to economic miracles, highlighting the importance of investment for growth [6][7]. - The current economic challenge in China is characterized by significant income inequality, as indicated by a high Gini coefficient, which affects overall consumption levels [6][9]. Group 3: Addressing Consumption Demand - The Gini coefficient in China has shown fluctuations, with a peak of 0.491 in 2008, indicating a high level of income inequality that needs to be addressed to enhance consumption [9][10]. - To achieve the economic growth target of 5% for the year, measures to stimulate consumption are crucial, especially given that consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP [10][11]. - Proposed measures to boost consumption include issuing consumption vouchers, reducing personal income tax, and reforming the social security system [10][12]. Group 4: Infrastructure Investment as a Catalyst - Infrastructure investment is identified as a key driver for increasing income and, consequently, consumption, creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth [14][20]. - The article suggests that the government should focus on infrastructure projects that can stimulate demand and improve potential economic growth [20][21]. - There is a significant potential for public investment in infrastructure, estimated at around 31 trillion yuan over the next five years, which can support various sectors, including telecommunications [20][21].