统计局： 中国1-10月新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%（降幅较1-9月扩大1.3个百分点），新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.4%（降幅扩大1.5个百分点）。全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%（降幅扩大0.8个百分点）； 房地产开发企业到位资金78853亿元，同比下降9.7%（降幅扩大1.3个百分点）。房地产开发景气指数为92.43。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 GDP growth target for China is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary and feasible to stabilize investor confidence in Chinese assets and capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, indicated that China's GDP growth is expected to reach around 5% next year due to policy support [1]. - The average GDP growth rate required from 2020 to 2035 to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 is approximately 4.73% [1]. - The average GDP growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is above 5%, meeting the stage requirements [1]. Group 2: Export and External Demand - Huang noted that external demand remains resilient, with China's export performance in 2025 exceeding expectations, contributing over 30% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [2]. - If the trade agreements are effectively executed and non-U.S. economies continue to expand, the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed expectations [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to diminish, with a projected slight narrowing of the decline in real estate development investment and new housing sales in 2026 [3]. - The decline in new housing sales is anticipated to be within 5%, reducing the negative drag on the economy [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Consumer Recovery - There is ample room for policy support, with fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies expected to work in tandem in 2026 [3]. - The implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies is expected to continue, with an increase in support for service consumption and the expansion of trade-in policies for consumer goods [3]. - If fiscal policies align with consumer recovery efforts, consumption is projected to improve from its current low state [3].

Real Estate Market Overview - China's new commercial housing sales area from January to September decreased by 5.5% year-on-year to 658.35 million square meters [1] - The decline in sales area widened by 0.8 percentage points compared to January-August [1] - New commercial housing sales amounted to 6.304 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in sales amount widened by 0.6 percentage points compared to January-August [1] Investment and Funding - National real estate development investment totaled 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in investment widened by 1 percentage point compared to January-August [1] - Real estate development enterprises' funds到位资金 reached 7.2299 trillion yuan, an 8.4% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in funds widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to January-August [1] Market Sentiment - The real estate development climate index stood at 92.78 [1]

Sales Performance - China's new commercial housing sales area from January to June decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 458.51 million square meters [1] - The decline in new commercial housing sales area widened by 0.6 percentage points compared to January-May [1] - New commercial housing sales amounted to 4.4241 trillion yuan, a 5.5% decrease [1] - The decline in new commercial housing sales widened by 1.7 percentage points [1] Investment and Funding - National real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 4.6658 trillion yuan [1] - The decline in real estate development investment widened by 0.5 percentage points [1] - Real estate development enterprises' funds到位 (funds in place) decreased by 6.2% year-on-year to 5.0202 trillion yuan [1] - The decline in funds到位 widened by 0.9 percentage points [1] Market Sentiment - The real estate development climate index stood at 93.6 [1]