智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产研究表示，12月新房供应量低位持稳，28城单月供应环比下降12%，同 比下跌49%，全年累计同比下降19%，供给约束依旧显著。一线城市环比持稳，仅北京显著放量。二线 同比降幅超5成，跌多涨少。三四线城市供应降无可降，低基数下环比大增。从供给结构来看，重点城 市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为26%、56%和18%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为辅的供应结构。近8成城 市以主城为供应主力。基于12月供应"提质缩量"，叠加房企年末冲刺释放折扣，预期12月新房成交仍将 迎来一波脉冲性复苏行情，不过基于去年基数较高，同比降幅或有持续扩大可能。 01规模：12月28城供应约束依旧，一线持平上月、二线回调显著 12月房企推盘积极性仍在低位，供给约束依旧显著：据CRIC调研，12月28城预计新增商品住宅供应面 积568万平方米，环比降12%，预期2025年全年累计同比降19%。 一线城市环比持稳，北京集中放量。据CRIC监测数据，4个一线城市12月预计供应147万平方米，环比 微降1%，至此全年累计供应同比下降15%。其中北京单月同环比倍增，年末房企集中推盘冲刺业绩。 上海迎来供应"空窗期"，单月供应量仅 ...

12月供应"提质缩量"，叠加房企年末冲刺推折扣，新房成交或迎脉冲性复苏；但受去年高基数影响，同比降幅可能持续扩大。 从供给结构来看，重点城市刚需、改善、高端占比结构为26%、56%和18%，呈现出以改善为主，刚需为辅的供应结构。 近8成城市以主 城为供应主力。 基于12月供应"提质缩量"，叠加房企年末冲刺释放折扣，预期12月新房成交仍将迎来一波脉冲性复苏行情，不过基于去年基数较高，同比 降幅或有持续扩大可能。 规模：12月28城供应约束依旧，一线持平上月、二线回调显著 01 12月房企推盘积极性仍在低位，供给约束依旧显著： 据CRIC调研，12月28城预计新增商品住宅供应面积568万平方米，环比降12%，预期 2025年全年累计同比降19%。 ◎ 文/ 俞倩倩 12月新房供应量低位持稳， 28城单月供应环比下降12%，同比下跌49%，全年累计同比下降19%，供给约束依旧显著。一线城市环比持 稳，仅北京显著放量。二线同比降幅超5成，跌多涨少。三四线城市供应降无可降，低基数下环比大增。 一线城市环比持稳，北京集中放量。 据CRIC监测数据，4个一线城市12月预计供应147万平方米，环比微降1%，至此全年累计供应同 ...

Core Insights - The overall enthusiasm of real estate companies for launching new projects in October has steadily declined, with a 41% month-on-month decrease and an 18% year-on-year decrease in supply across 28 cities [1][2][3] - First-tier cities experienced a significant drop in supply, with a 50% reduction month-on-month and a 27% year-on-year decrease, particularly in Shanghai, which saw an 84% year-on-year decline [3][6] - Second-tier cities showed a similar trend, with approximately 90% of cities experiencing a month-on-month decline, while a few cities like Ningbo and Chongqing managed to achieve growth [3][4] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a slight recovery, with a 47% month-on-month increase in supply, largely driven by a surge in Quanzhou [4][10] - The supply structure is shifting towards improvement demand, with 57% of the supply categorized as improvement, 29% as basic needs, and 14% as high-end [7][10] Supply Dynamics - In October, the total expected supply of new residential properties across 28 cities is estimated at 5.77 million square meters, reflecting a 41% decrease from the previous month and an 18% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - First-tier cities are expected to supply 1.22 million square meters, with Shanghai's supply dropping to a record low of 9,000 square meters, marking an 85% year-on-year decline [3][6] - Among second-tier cities, 19 cities are expected to supply 4.16 million square meters, with a 40% month-on-month decrease and an 18% year-on-year decrease [3][4] Market Trends - The market is expected to maintain a low-level consolidation trend in new home transactions due to the steady supply and high base from the previous year, which may lead to an expanding year-on-year decline [1][11] - The average absorption rate for projects in 28 key cities is projected to be 34%, down 7 percentage points month-on-month and 4 percentage points year-on-year [11][12] - Cities like Hangzhou are expected to remain hot due to strong purchasing power and high-quality improvement housing, while others like Nanning and Chongqing are struggling with low absorption rates [11][12]