Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US, 09868) to a buy rating with a 12-month target price of $24/94 HKD, indicating an implied upside potential of 29%/27%. The firm sees the results of various efforts, including organizational and supply chain restructuring, cost reduction through technology, and platformization, enhancing the company's product and cost structure competitiveness, leading to greater visibility for sustainable sales growth and margin improvement [1] Group 1 - Enhanced Model Competitiveness: Xpeng Motors has shown continuous improvement in its new and updated models over the past two quarters, with the Mona M03 and P7+ ranking in the top three in their respective segments. This ongoing improvement boosts confidence in Xpeng's sales, not only for existing models but also for strong new models and updates expected to launch in the remainder of 2025, including G7/P7 (Q3) and its first extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) (Q4) [2] - Accelerated New Model Launches: Xpeng Motors has increased the frequency of new model releases, planning to launch 10 new models and updates annually, compared to just 1-2 models per year from 2019 to 2023. This strategy aims to enhance brand visibility throughout the year and provide opportunities for old model sales, thereby extending the sales growth cycle for all models [3] - Cost Reduction Effects: In early 2023, Xpeng Motors implemented a cost reduction plan aimed at lowering the overall bill of materials (BOM) costs by 25%, including a 50% reduction in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) BOM costs. The P7+ (launching in Q4 2024) will be the first model to realize total cost reductions, followed by the 2025 versions of G6 and G9 (launching in March). For instance, the cost reduction for the G6 is projected to improve gross margin by 7 percentage points and enhance gross profit by 156%. All new models will benefit from BOM cost reductions, laying the foundation for further improvements in gross margin and overall profitability [4]

Summary of NIO (NIO.N/9866.HK) Analyst Briefing Company Overview - NIO designs and sells premium electric vehicles in China, the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and began vehicle shipments in 2018, establishing itself as a pioneer in China's premium electric vehicle market [doc id='21'][doc id='25']. Key Industry Insights - **Vehicle Margin Expectations**: For 1Q25E, vehicle margins are expected to decline to 11-12% due to low car sales season, tepid sales before new model launches, and lower-than-expected sales of Onvo [doc id='1']. - **Sales Volume Guidance**: Management maintains a target to double sales volume in 2025E, driven by nine new model launches and improved sales network efficiency [doc id='3']. Core Points and Arguments - **New Model Pipeline**: NIO plans to launch six new models under its brand, including the ET9 and upgraded versions of existing models, with deliveries starting in 2Q25E [doc id='2']. - **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: Capex is anticipated to increase slightly YoY in 2025E due to new model launches and the establishment of a third factory, with limited impact from battery swap station expansions [doc id='4']. - **Cost Reduction Initiatives**: The company has reduced the bill of materials (BOM) cost per car by 10% in 2024 and plans to continue these efforts in 2025E, including standardizing smart hardware and developing in-house ADAS chips [doc id='10']. - **Onvo Sales Performance**: Lower-than-expected sales for Onvo are attributed to low brand awareness and a less mature sales network, with management increasing marketing expenses to improve order intake [doc id='12']. Financial Projections - **Revised Volume Forecasts**: Volume forecasts for 2025/26E have been cut from 413k/500k to 393k/456k, reflecting sales misses for Onvo, with net loss forecasts adjusted to Rmb15.2bn and Rmb7.2bn for 2025/26E respectively [doc id='5']. - **Target Price Adjustments**: The target price for NIO's H shares has been reduced from HK$68.10 to HK$62.50, and for US shares from US$8.90 to US$8.10, based on a 1.1x P/S multiple for 2025E [doc id='1'][doc id='28']. Long-term Outlook - **Breakeven Target**: Management is confident in achieving breakeven by 4Q25E, driven by sales ramp-up and margin improvements [doc id='9']. - **Long-term Sales and Margin Goals**: The long-term target is to achieve annual sales of 2 million units with a gross profit margin of 20% and a net profit margin of 7-8% [doc id='16']. Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: Potential risks include failure to manufacture quality vehicles on schedule, intensified competition, lower-than-expected demand, and issues with customer service profitability [doc id='24'][doc id='29']. Conclusion - NIO is positioned for growth with an extensive new model pipeline and cost control measures, although it faces challenges in sales performance and market competition. The company maintains a "Buy" rating, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential despite short-term hurdles [doc id='22'][doc id='26'].