光大证券发布研报称，关注车企AI转型、以及上游原材料涨价压力消化。该行判断，当前新势力车企 积极向AI转型(尤其人形机器人)：特斯拉规划将当前Model S/X生产线逐步改造为专门用于人形机器人 的产线、小鹏宣布将于2026年启动人形机器人规模量产、理想新设人形机器人团队。2025年底至今， 铜/铝/碳酸锂等新能源车上游原材料陆续涨价，预计整车毛利率将承压，关注后续产业链消化涨价压力 进度。 光大证券主要观点如下： 特斯拉：国产Model3全系交付周期为2-4周，Model Y长续航版本交付周期为4-6周、后轮驱动版本交付 周期为1-3周，Model YL交付周期为2-4周;Model3全系可享8,000元限时保险补贴+7年超低息金融政策， Model Y全系享7年超低息金融政策，Model YL享5年0息金融政策。 新势力：1)理想：L6交付周期维持1-3周，MEGA交付周期维持1-4周，i8/L7交付周期维持2-4周，L9交 付周期缩短至1-3周(vs.1月为1-5周)，L8交付周期缩短至1-3周(vs.1月为1-4周)，i6宁德时代（300750）电 池版本交付周期维持19-22周、欣旺达（300207 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is gearing up for a significant product year in 2026, launching multiple new models and enhancing its technology to compete in both domestic and global markets [2][7][38]. Group 1: Product Launch and Technology - Xiaopeng Motors introduced four new models on January 8, 2026, focusing on range extension and advanced technology [2][3]. - The new models feature self-developed Turing chips, moving away from Nvidia's Orin X chips, and include enhancements like the second-generation VLA and VLM for improved driving assistance and smart cockpit capabilities [3][4][21]. - The company emphasizes that its range-extended vehicles are fundamentally electric, maintaining low energy consumption and offering a pure electric range of 430 km [11][12]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - In 2025, the sales of range-extended vehicles in China reached 1.235 million units, a 6% increase year-on-year, while pure electric vehicle sales grew by 24.4% [9]. - Xiaopeng Motors ranked among the top ten global new energy brands in sales, with the potential to break into the top five with the addition of range-extended models [9][10]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles in 2026, representing a 30% increase from 2025 [52][53]. Group 3: Global Market Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors is actively targeting international markets, with a goal of achieving a 1:1 sales ratio between overseas and domestic markets [41][50]. - The company has expanded its presence to 60 countries and regions, indicating a strong commitment to global growth [51]. - The focus on global media engagement during product launches reflects Xiaopeng's strategy to enhance its visibility and reputation in international markets [46][50]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The automotive market in 2026 is expected to be increasingly competitive, with strong rivals like Tesla, Xiaomi, BYD, and Leap Motor [58][59]. - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning itself to leverage its technological advancements and product offerings to navigate this competitive environment [60].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is set to launch four new SUV models in 2023, aiming to shift its product sales structure and enhance its market presence in the competitive automotive industry [2][3]. Group 1: Product Strategy - Xiaopeng Motors plans to release over ten new products in 2026, including the recently announced G6, G9, G7, and P7+ models, with a focus on SUVs [2]. - The four new SUVs will include two models from the MONA series and a full-size SUV, with three of them expected to feature the Robotaxi autonomous driving system [2]. - The company aims to establish a strong product cycle with the introduction of new models, which is anticipated to drive sales growth [3]. Group 2: Sales Targets - Xiaopeng Motors has set an ambitious sales target of 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles for 2026, representing a growth of approximately 28% to 40% compared to 2025 [4]. - In 2025, the company delivered around 429,400 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 126%, with the MONA M03 and P7+ accounting for over 65% of total sales [2][4]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The overall automotive market in China is projected to grow modestly, with total vehicle sales expected to reach approximately 35.5 million units in 2026, a 2% increase year-on-year [4]. - Changes in government policies regarding vehicle trade-in subsidies and tax adjustments for electric vehicles may significantly impact consumer behavior and present both challenges and opportunities for Xiaopeng Motors [4]. Group 4: Global Expansion - Xiaopeng Motors plans to expand into more overseas markets in 2026, focusing on local R&D and manufacturing to cater to both left-hand and right-hand drive markets [5]. - The company anticipates that growth in international markets will outpace domestic growth, aiming for a sales ratio of 1:1 or higher between overseas and Chinese markets in the coming years [5].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is preparing for an IPO of its flying car division in Hong Kong, having engaged JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley for the process, with a potential completion as early as this year [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaopeng Motors' stock rose by 2.04% to HKD 80.15, with a trading volume of HKD 1.318 billion [1] Group 2: IPO Plans - The company has secretly submitted its IPO application for the flying car division, with plans to complete the process within the year [1] - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have been selected to assist in the IPO preparations [1] Group 3: Product Launches - On January 8, Xiaopeng Motors unveiled multiple new models and technology updates at its 2026 Spring Product Launch, including the 2026 P7+, G7 Super Extended Range, G6, and G9 [1] - CEO He Xiaopeng announced that these new vehicles will feature the second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) large model, which is the first in the industry to achieve L4-level initial capabilities [1] Group 4: Future Developments - The company plans to implement physical AI and scale production this year, including the operation of Robotaxi services, humanoid robots, and flying cars [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is positioning 2026 as a significant year for product launches, introducing four new models and expanding its business into diverse areas such as Robotaxi operations and humanoid robots [1] Group 1: New Product Launches - Xiaopeng Motors unveiled four new vehicles at the 2026 Global New Product Launch, including the 2026 P7+, G7, G6, and G9, with the first two models available in both pure electric and range-extended versions [1] - The company plans to launch four new SUVs in 2026, emphasizing its commitment to a diverse product lineup [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company is accelerating its "pure electric + range-extended" strategy, having introduced its first range-extended vehicle in November 2025 [1] - Xiaopeng Motors aims to enhance its autonomous driving capabilities by upgrading driver assistance to achieve Level 4 (L4) autonomy [1][3] Group 3: Technology Development - The latest models will feature the second-generation Visual Language Action (VLA) model, which is designed to enable L4 capabilities and improve the understanding of real-world scenarios [1][2] - The second-generation VLA eliminates the "language translation" step, allowing for direct generation of action commands from visual signals, enhancing the vehicle's operational capabilities [2]

Group 1 - Apple plans to launch a 200-megapixel iPhone in 2028, marking a significant upgrade from the 48-megapixel camera introduced in the iPhone 14 series in 2022 [5] - A breakthrough in cancer vaccine research was published by a team from Peking University in the journal Nature, introducing a new strategy for "degradable vaccines" that shows promising results in tumor suppression [6] - Xiaomi's former executive Wang Teng has established a new company focused on sleep health products, named "Today Yixiu" [7] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce of China is reviewing Meta's acquisition of the AI platform Manus, emphasizing compliance with Chinese laws and regulations for foreign investments and technology exports [2] - China National Petroleum Corporation and China Aviation Oil announced a restructuring plan approved by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4] - After declaring a failed restructuring, Huiyuan Group announced it would fully take over Beijing Huiyuan due to the previous investor's failure to fulfill investment agreements [8] Group 3 - JPMorgan Chase has become the new issuer of the Apple Card, replacing Goldman Sachs, with the transition expected to take up to 24 months [8] - IKEA plans to close seven stores, including one in Shanghai, as part of its strategy to adapt to changing retail environments and consumer behaviors [10][11] - Samsung Electronics expects its profits to triple in the last quarter of the previous year due to soaring demand for storage chips driven by artificial intelligence [8]

Group 1 - The Guangzhou Municipal Government has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of an advanced manufacturing city, aiming to double industrial added value by 2035 and focusing on new industrialization [2] - The plan emphasizes the development of 15 strategic industrial clusters and six emerging pillar industries, including smart connected vehicles, ultra-high-definition video, biomedicine, green petrochemicals, software and the internet, and intelligent equipment [2] - Five strategic leading industries are to be cultivated, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing [2] Group 2 - The plan includes a focus on commercial aerospace, aiming to develop reusable rocket technology and establish testing bases for liquid rockets, which will be open to national research institutions and enterprises [3] - The plan supports the construction of satellite constellations and aims to attract talent and capital to build a complete commercial aerospace ecosystem in Guangzhou [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has warned against irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, involving major companies like CATL and BYD, and has called for a meeting to regulate competition [18] - The meeting included 16 companies and emphasized the need for self-regulation within the industry to prevent monopolistic practices [18] Group 4 - Xiaomi Group plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in research and development over the next five years, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [11] - JD.com has established a new business unit to oversee the development and commercialization of AI products, with plans to launch a second batch of self-developed AI toys [9] Group 5 - TSMC is experiencing a shortage in its 3nm process technology, leading to increased prices and a halt on new project initiations due to overwhelming demand [8] - The company is encouraging clients in the early stages of product planning to consider transitioning to 2nm technology for future production [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [10]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a flat-rate model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands will be less affected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to reshape the sales structure of NEVs in 2026, with a decline in demand for low-end models and a relative advantage for mid-to-high-end models [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The new subsidy policy will lead to a 19% reduction for Geely and a 14% reduction for BYD, while companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a smaller impact of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [2]. - The demand for A0 and A00 level low-end models, which previously relied heavily on subsidies, is expected to decrease significantly [2]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - Xiaopeng Motors delivered nearly 430,000 vehicles in 2025, a 126% year-on-year increase. However, the average selling price (ASP) dropped from approximately 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025 due to changes in product mix [3]. - Leap Motor achieved a delivery volume of 597,000 vehicles in 2025, doubling from 290,000 in 2024. The company plans to launch two high-end models in 2026 and aims for a sales target of 1 million vehicles [4]. - Great Wall Motors sold 1.32 million vehicles in 2025, with a 7% year-on-year growth. The company has set a sales target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2026, reflecting a 40% increase [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies with advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Yinchuan, Fuda, and Shuanghuan, which are expected to benefit from the new subsidy policies [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The 2026 new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy policy has shifted from a "one-size-fits-all" model to a tiered proportional subsidy, resulting in a slight decrease in per-vehicle subsidy amounts. Companies with a higher proportion of low-end models, such as Geely and BYD, will experience a more significant subsidy reduction, while high-end brands are largely unaffected [2][3]. - The adjustment in subsidy policy is expected to significantly reshape the sales structure of new energy vehicles in 2026, with demand for low-end models likely to decline, benefiting mid-to-high-end models and companies with higher average selling prices (ASP) [3]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Analysis - The 2026 subsidy policy will lead to a reduction in subsidies for companies with a higher share of low-end models, with Geely facing a 19% reduction and BYD a 14% reduction. In contrast, companies like Xiaopeng, Great Wall, and Leap Motor will see a reduction of around 10% due to their higher proportion of mid-to-high-end models [3][4]. Sales Analysis of Key Companies - **Xiaopeng Motors**: Projected delivery volume for 2025 is approximately 430,000 units, a 126% increase year-on-year. December deliveries were 37,500 units, showing a decline due to subsidy reductions. The ASP is expected to drop from nearly 190,000 yuan in 2024 to 160,000 yuan in the first half of 2025. Xiaopeng plans to launch seven dual-power models in 2026, which are expected to benefit from the policy changes [4][5]. - **Leap Motor**: Expected to deliver 597,000 units in 2025, doubling from 290,000 units in 2024. The growth is driven by new models and overseas market expansion. Despite the introduction of lower-priced models, Leap Motor has maintained its gross margin due to effective cost control. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [5][6]. - **Great Wall Motors**: Anticipated sales for 2025 are 1.32 million units, a 7% increase. The company has optimized its internal structure, with new models compensating for declines in older models. The sales target for 2026 is set at 1.8 million units, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth expectation [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new energy vehicle companies that have advantages in AI and robotics, such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as key Tier 1 suppliers. It also recommends second-hand car companies and component manufacturers with low valuations and growth potential, such as Yinchuan, Fuda, and others [2][6].

Industry Overview - Electric vehicle stocks, including manufacturers, battery suppliers, and charging infrastructure providers, are gaining attention for their potential growth due to increasing EV adoption and technological advancements [2] - These stocks are characterized by high trading volumes and are subject to industry-specific risks such as rapid technological changes, supply chain constraints, and intense competition [2] Company Summaries - **Tesla, Inc.** designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles and energy systems globally, operating in two segments: Automotive and Energy Generation and Storage [3] - **Rivian Automotive, Inc.** focuses on designing, developing, and manufacturing electric vehicles, offering consumer models like the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV [4] - **XPeng Inc.** specializes in smart electric vehicles in China, providing a range of models including SUVs and sedans, along with various services such as auto financing and ride-hailing [4]