人民币还能继续升值吗？20251203 摘要 美联储鸽派信号和疲软的美国经济数据大幅提升了市场对 12 月降息的 预期，成为驱动近期外汇市场，尤其是美元兑人民币汇率走势的关键因 素。 日本央行暗示加息条件成熟，叠加美元指数疲软，推动日元走强；英国 财政预算方案缓解市场担忧，加之美元走弱，使得英镑表现突出。 人民币兑美元即期汇率和中间价同步走强，强化了市场对人民币升值的 预期，央行汇率调控取得阶段性成功，巩固了短期内人民币强势格局。 11 月下旬，企业集中结汇以锁定利润和规避风险，季节性因素也增加结 汇需求，放大了市场波动，为人民币强势提供了额外动力。 美联储降息预期升温导致 2 年期美债收益率下降，美元指数走弱，为包 括人民币在内的非美货币创造了有利的外部环境。 美国经济放缓迹象、政治不确定性和美元信用问题削弱了美元指数，推 动国际资本转移到包括人民币在内的其他资产。 短期内，人民币兑美元大概率将呈现相对强势并伴随波动风险，美联储 降息预期、国内经济基本面和季节性结汇需求等因素支撑人民币走强， 但需警惕美国经济好转导致美元反弹的风险。 Q&A 日元和英镑在近期外汇市场中的表现如何？ 近期人民币相对于美元的升值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with significant movements in U.S. Treasury yields impacting gold's opportunity cost [2][5]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has reached 88%, driven by dovish statements from Fed officials and signs of a weakening U.S. economy [2]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a significant rise on December 1, with 10-year, 30-year, and 2-year yields increasing, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold [2]. - Key upcoming events include a speech by Fed Chairman Powell on December 2, which could influence market expectations, and the release of the November ADP employment report and September PCE price index [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a volatile trading pattern, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a strong bullish trend remains intact [3]. - The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, suggesting continued bullish momentum, with key support levels at 4200-4195 and 4140 [3][6]. - In the four-hour chart, gold successfully broke through the key level of 4245, with potential upward paths identified, including resistance at 4264/4265 and 4275/4276 [5][6].