摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价994.30元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.67美元，跌幅 0.69%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1000.71元/克，最高价1003.35元/克，最低价993.37元/克。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价994.30元/克，较前一交易日下跌6.67美元，跌幅 0.69%，日内高位回落。当日开盘价1000.71元/克，最高价1003.35元/克，最低价993.37元/克。 【要闻速递】 自2025年以来，美元指数持续走弱，主要原因是美债规模不断扩大。特朗普未能兑现竞选承诺，《大而 美法案》反而将联邦债务上限提高至41万亿美元。截至2025年9月，美债规模突破37万亿美元，利息支 出超过1万亿，到期债务及借新还旧压力巨大。对美债信用的担忧，使各国央行自2022年起加大黄金储 备，成为推动金价上涨的重要因素。 世界黄金协会数据显示，1964年以来，全球黄金存量因开采技术进步增加约1.5倍。若各国央行按此比 例增持，应持有全球黄金存量的50%，但实际仅持有约17.5%(21万吨中的比例)。中国央行黄金储备到 2025年末约为0.74亿盎司，占全球央行总储备 ...

【业内人士：支撑人民币走强的核心逻辑清晰可见】今早离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，这一走势延续了 2025年底以来的升值态势，市场普遍预期人民币将在2026年正式重返"6字头"时代。业内人士分析认 为，支撑人民币走强的核心逻辑清晰可见：一方面，美国高债务压力下美联储政策易松难紧，美元指数 持续走弱为人民币升值创造了外部条件；另一方面，国内经济基本面持续改善，叠加"十五五规划"政策 红利释放，市场对人民币资产的信心显著增强。更值得关注的是，过去三年积累的约9000亿美元未结汇 贸易顺差，正呈现回流迹象，为人民币汇率提供了强劲支撑。（21财经） ...

12月25日，人民币兑美元汇率重新站回"6时代"，这一幕让许多人感到意外。曾经还在7.3左右摇摆的汇率，如今快速反转，盘中一度触及6.9965，创下十四 个月以来新高。有人欢喜，有人忧愁，留学、出游、买进口商品的人拍手称快，而投资美元资产的人却陷入沉默。 汇率的起伏从来都不是简单的数字游戏，它像一张巨网，牵动着每个家庭的消费、投资甚至未来的规划。那么这场升值背后到底藏着什么动因？对我们的股 市、楼市以及老百姓的钱袋子，又会带来怎样的改变？ 人民币重返强势区间，背后是多股力量同向发力。从4月的7.3498低点开始，人民币经历了长达八个月的震荡上行。12月25日终于跨过7.0这一关口，不只是 汇率的反弹，更像是一场信号释放。 美元指数的持续走弱是重要推手之一。自2025年9月以来，美联储连续降息，利率区间降到4.00%-4.25%，美元指数从年初的109一路滑落至100以下，年内累 计跌幅超8%。这种环境下，配置美元资产的吸引力下降，资金开始寻找新的出口。 出口企业年底集中结汇也起到了加速作用。2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差突破万亿，出口企业手中积累了大量美元。当人民币升值趋势明显，大家纷纷选 择在年底前结汇 ...

以下文章来源于公募排排网 ，作者排排产品研究中心 公募排排网 . 看财经、查排名、买基金，就上公募排排网，申购费低至0.001折。 引言 12月25日，离岸市场人民币汇率持续走强，升破7.0大关，为2024年9月以来首次； 在岸人民币最高升至7.0047，美元指数跌破98，非美货 币整体走强。 图1：美元指数今年以来持续走弱 数据来源：公募排排网；截止日期：2025年12月25日 一、人民币为何在年底明显走强 从驱动因素看，本轮人民币升值并非偶然，而是外部环境与内部因素共振的结果。 外部方面，美元走弱成为直接催化剂。 在美联储政策预期转向宽松的背景下，美元指数自 12 月中旬以来持续回落。叠加美国政治层面对"更宽松 货币政策"的频繁表态，市场对美元中期走势的信心下降，带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍走强。 本文首发于公众号"公募排排网"。（点击↑↑上图查看详情） 对基金投资而言，人民币汇率走强，可继续关注以下几个方向： 1、A股核心资产与高分红板块： 汇率稳定有助于改善风险偏好，外资关注度可能提升。可关注以沪深300、中证500为代表的核心资产指数基 金，以及红利指数、央企红利相关ETF。 内部方面，外汇供需 ...

年初换美元的人，此刻恐怕要后悔了。 12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7关口，重回6时代。12月26日继续在7这一关口上下徘徊。在岸人民币对美元汇率也逼近6时代。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛对三里河分析，这背后主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息预期下，美元指数走弱。二是中国经济展现出较强韧性，国际 机构纷纷上调中国经济增长预期。 可以说，这背后是内外因素的共同作用。 从外部看，美元指数持续走弱。自11月下旬跌破100后，美元指数依然跌跌不休，目前已经跌破98关口。美元走弱，带动非美货币普遍升值。 一般而言，美元指数强弱与人民币等非美货币是反向关系，也就是你强我就弱，你弱我就强。降息预期下，美元吸引力下降。 从内部看，中国经济延续稳中有进的发展态势，尤其是出口在外部压力下展现出超预期的韧性，11月出口增长5.7%，增速由上月下降转为增长。 再加上，临近年底，企业结汇的需求在增长，考虑到人民币升值，为避免汇兑损失，这种需求可能在加速释放。 12月26日，人民币对美元中间价报7.0358元，上调34个基点，续创2024年9月30日以来最高。 人民币汇率整体奔向6时代，近在眼前。 近期，人民币汇率为何走强？ 种种 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the US dollar has broken the "7" mark for the first time since October 2024, reaching a high of 6.9985, marking a 15-month peak, while the onshore RMB also strengthened, nearing the "7" mark at 7.0066, a new high since September 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is driven by four main forces: a weakening US dollar index, a strong Chinese stock market increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets, rising demand for currency settlement from export companies, and the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain stability in the RMB against a basket of currencies [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar index, particularly around the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on December 11, has led to a general appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency settlement demand from enterprises as the year-end approaches, have also contributed to the RMB's strength [4]. Group 2: Implications for Capital Markets and Trade - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is expected to enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets to foreign investors, potentially increasing foreign exchange gains [4]. - For export companies, the recent RMB appreciation may reduce exchange profits, while import companies will benefit from lower costs [4]. - Experts recommend that foreign trade companies avoid betting on a one-sided RMB exchange rate trend and focus on their core business, utilizing foreign exchange derivatives to manage risks [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation trend through 2026, with a potential key level at 6.8 against the US dollar [5][6]. - The central bank's policy is expected to balance stability and flexibility, enhancing the resilience of the RMB exchange rate [5].

Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has led to negative returns on US dollar deposits, impacting individuals' investment decisions and costs for families with students studying abroad [4][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, surpassing the 7 mark for the first time in nearly 15 months, with a maximum rate of 6.9941 [4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.3338, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.63% [4]. Impact on Investments - The significant appreciation of the RMB has resulted in negative returns for US dollar deposits. For instance, an individual who deposited 8,400 USD at a 2.8% interest rate earned 254.8 USD, but the RMB equivalent decreased by 1,071 RMB compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - Another individual holding US Treasury bonds with a 5% yield saw their returns diminish when converted to RMB, yielding only 6,710 RMB, which is slightly above the return from a one-year RMB fixed deposit [5]. Cost Implications for Families - The appreciation of the RMB has reduced the cost of studying abroad for families. For example, a family preparing to pay tuition found that the exchange rate had improved, saving them over 17,000 RMB compared to earlier in the year [6]. Economic Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is attributed to several factors, including an expanding trade surplus, increased demand for RMB due to export companies needing to settle accounts, and a weakening US dollar index, which has declined by 9.74% this year [7]. - The euro, pound, and Australian dollar have all appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a broader trend of dollar depreciation [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the current period is a favorable time for currency exchange for families with immediate needs, although the long-term outlook for the RMB will depend on economic fundamentals and monetary policies from central banks, including the Federal Reserve [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The RMB showed a significant strong performance against the US dollar at the end of 2025, with the offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the key psychological level of 7.00, indicating a re - emergence of strong appreciation momentum [2]. - The appreciation of the RMB at the end of 2025 is driven by the resonance of internal and external factors, including the weakening of the US dollar index, the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, and the concentrated release of seasonal year - end settlement demand [5][6]. - Although there are expectations for the RMB to appreciate and break through 7 and enter the 6 range in 2026, there are also potential risks such as geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign exchange policy adjustments [13]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. RMB's Strong Year - End Performance: Symbolic "Breaking 7" and Its Market Characteristics - **Offshore RMB "Breaking 7": The First Time Since September 2024** - At the end of 2025, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through 7.00 during intraday trading on December 25, the first time since September 2024, attracting high market attention and indicating enhanced market confidence in the RMB [2]. - **Market Volatility Characteristics: Strong but Low - Volatility, Contrasting with the September 2024 Market** - The implied volatility of the RMB is at a historically low level, indicating a more rational and orderly appreciation process and providing a stable foreign - exchange environment for enterprises and investors [2]. - The RMB's strong performance at the end of 2025 is fundamentally different from the 2024 market fluctuations. The latter was driven by the global yen carry - trade unwind, while the former is based on the resonance of internal and external supply - demand factors [2][5]. II. Driving Forces for RMB Appreciation: Resonance of Internal and External Factors - **External Factors: Weakening US Dollar Index and Narrowing Sino - US Interest Rate Spread** - The Fed's interest - rate cuts led to the downward trend of the US dollar index, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread and providing an external environment for the RMB's appreciation [6]. - The seasonal contraction of market liquidity during the Christmas holiday exacerbated the weakness of the US dollar, contributing to the year - end situation of a weak US dollar and a strong RMB [6]. - The market is generally pessimistic about the US dollar's trend in 2026, and the divergence in the Fed's expected interest - rate cuts, the change of the Fed chairman, and the "de - dollarization" trend all add uncertainty to the long - term prospects of the US dollar [7]. - **Internal Factors: Concentrated Release of Seasonal Year - End Settlement Demand** - The concentrated settlement of foreign - trade enterprises at the end of the year is a more direct and strong driving force for the RMB's appreciation, as evidenced by the fact that the RMB's appreciation amplitude is greater than the US dollar index's depreciation amplitude [8]. - China has maintained a trade surplus for seven consecutive months, and there is still a large amount of pending settlement funds being digested, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8]. III. A Cold - Blooded Reflection under the Market's Optimistic Expectations: Appreciation Space and Potential Risks - **Appreciation Space** - Huang Qifan's view that the RMB will appreciate to 6.0 in the next ten years is based on rational deductions of China's economic fundamentals, trade - structure optimization, and RMB internationalization [9]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate shows significant appreciation potential, as the gap between the nominal and real effective exchange rates indicates that the RMB's real purchasing power is undervalued [10]. - The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread, the central bank's monetary - policy stance, and the increasing attractiveness of the A - share market are all factors that support the RMB's appreciation [11][12]. - **Potential Risks** - Geopolitical black - swan events, the domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations, and central bank foreign - exchange policy adjustments are potential risks for the RMB's appreciation [13].

2025.12.24 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国内钯 金期货主力合约涨停。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约价格最 高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别创出新高 675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪铜期货主力合约最 高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期大涨。 顾冯达也称，全球降息周期开启及美元指数整体走弱，全球流动性相对宽松之下，中美在科技、经贸领 域竞争激发资金涌入贵金属及有色金属等战略性资源品布局避险，尤其是在AI、电力、新能源、高端 装备制造等带来的新兴需求崛起，以及全球经贸遭遇美国贸易战的逆流冲击之下，国内也启动"反内 卷"政策规范行业竞争，战略资源品出口管制强化资源战略价值。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘政 治、产业周期 ...

在全球宏观经济格局不断调整的背景下，美元指数的走势始终是影响各类资产配置的关键变量。近期美元指数走弱趋势愈发明确且力度显著，具体来看，11 月下旬以来便开启震荡下行模式，连续跌破100、99两大整数关口，截至12月17日收盘，期间累计下行幅度达到1.72%，最新收盘报98.71，再次逼近98整数 关口。拉长时间维度观察，今年以来美元指数整体下行态势清晰，年内下行幅度已达到9.30%，其中上半年跌幅更是达到10.8%，即便年中出现阶段性反 弹，也未能扭转整体弱势格局。这一明确的走弱变化不仅重塑了全球资产的风险偏好，更让黄金这一传统避险资产的价值再度凸显。对于普通投资者而言， 黄金ETF凭借其便捷性与高效性，成为把握这一轮市场机遇的优质选择。以下将从核心逻辑与配置价值两方面，解析美元走弱背景下黄金ETF的投资机遇。 图：美元指数近期下行 | 05 低98.4115 均98.5815 量0 换0.00% 振0.34% 额0 | F9 不复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q | | 98.7125 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/01/15-2025/12/19(243 ...