Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength due to the weakening US economy and rising market risk - aversion demand [1]. - Copper is also seen as having short - term strength as the domestic market atmosphere warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: On Friday night, New York gold rose and then fell, with the main contract price dropping from around $3500 to around $3450. The price difference between New York gold and London gold once widened to $100 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US has added 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars to the tariff - imposed category, causing the New York gold market to differ from London and Shanghai. Short - term New York gold is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper - edge pressure of the range [3]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement on Friday night [4]. - **Core Logic**: The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar index are positive for copper prices, but the risk of overseas recession trading needs to be watched. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices. In the off - season of the industry, high upstream production, weak downstream demand, and copper inventory accumulation are negative for copper prices. Overall, macro factors are positive and industrial factors are negative, and copper prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美国经济走弱，市场避险需求上 升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 国内氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价维持强势，伦敦金逼近 3400 美元，沪金 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 非农爆冷，市场避险需求上升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 国内氛围回暖，铜价企稳回升 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent inflow of over 49 billion yuan into Hong Kong stock ETFs indicates strong investor interest, particularly in sectors like brokerage, internet, and technology, despite a slight pullback in market sentiment [1][3]. Fund Inflows - As of August 5, over 49 billion yuan has been invested in Hong Kong-themed ETFs in the past month, with significant contributions from major funds [1][3]. - The E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF saw its shares increase from 53.12 billion to 105.66 billion, attracting 11.375 billion yuan [2][3]. - The Fortune CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF's shares rose from 563.54 billion to 676.35 billion, with an inflow of 10.327 billion yuan [2][3]. - Other ETFs like the GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF and the ICBC Credit Suisse National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF also experienced inflows of 7.19 billion yuan and 2.58 billion yuan, respectively [2][3]. Sector Preferences - Investors are favoring sectors such as brokerage, internet, and technology, with two ETFs receiving over 10 billion yuan each [1][3]. - However, there is a divergence in sentiment towards the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, with mixed inflows observed [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the current low risk premium in the stock market and favorable valuation of Hong Kong stocks could attract more global capital [5]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker US dollar are seen as positive factors for the Hong Kong market [5]. - Future investment strategies should focus on balancing growth and high dividend sectors, with particular attention to internet, AI, and innovative industries [5].

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - **基本逻辑**: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **产业逻辑**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - **策略推荐**: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - **策略推荐**: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to be strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and unresolved LME warehouse receipt issues, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is concluded, the tight copper supply pattern in non - US regions is difficult to reverse. The reference price range for the main contract is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is in a state of slight surplus due to high - capacity operation. The reference price range for the main contract is 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels in the short term. Although macro factors and low inventory support the price, consumption in the off - season restricts its upward space. The reference price range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show weak oscillations. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight in the short term, and the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season. The reference price range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices rebounded in the short term driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not fundamentally improved. In the medium - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. The reference price range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short term. Although macro policies boost market sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the cost support for refined nickel has weakened. The reference price range for the main contract is 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term under macro support. The fundamentals still face pressure, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The reference price range for the main contract is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to slow supply - side recovery. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The market is in a state of contradiction between sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure is obvious, and the price is restricted from rising. It is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to changes in macro expectations [17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 356.71 yuan/ton to - 1,128 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; in May, electrolytic copper imports were 0.2531 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 19.11% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.69% day - on - day [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.86% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 2.29% day - on - day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0, a month - on - month decrease of 100%; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.0261 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 6.74% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%; in May, refined zinc imports were 0.0267 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36%. - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 3.60% week - on - week, and LME inventory decreased by 1.28% day - on - day [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 194 dollars/ton; the futures import profit and loss improved by 142 yuan/ton to - 2,419 yuan/ton [10]. Supply and Inventory - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.11% day - on - day [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton. - The 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production remained unchanged at 0.36 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.28% week - on - week, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% day - on - day [12]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 138.42% to - 48.99 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. - SHEF inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 2.84% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1.12% to 632 dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.74%. - In May, lithium carbonate imports were 21,146 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.37%; lithium carbonate exports were 287 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.95%. - Lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month in June [17].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日金价反弹明显，亚洲盘收市后，外盘持续反弹，内外金价再度回升至 60 日均线上方。 近期市场降息预期升温，美元指数持续走弱，这很大程度上给予金价支撑。消息面上，美联储主席鲍 威尔在葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲经济论坛上称，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，但强调"不会预先排除 任何会议的可能性"，下一步行动将完全取决于数据表现。Fed ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance in 52 years [1][2] - Factors contributing to the dollar's weakness include rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.2% probability of a rate cut in September [1][2] - The report notes that the US President's pressure on the Federal Reserve may weaken its independence, further impacting the dollar's value [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the weakening dollar is providing support for international commodity prices, with gold and oil prices rising [3] - Copper prices have also shown strength, with LME copper futures rising by 13.61% since April 7, driven by declining global inventories [3] - The report mentions that the US tax and spending bill under Senate review could raise concerns about the sustainability of the dollar's value due to increased debt [2] Group 3 - In the domestic market, the stock market has shown mild recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% [4] - The bond market has seen a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with yields dropping to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [4] - The report discusses the adjustment in the issuance schedule of government bonds, indicating a potential improvement in the bond market's supply and demand dynamics [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].