2025年11月26日，英国最新的2025年秋季预算案正式公布！ 在经济增速被OBR意外下调、公共财政承压、政策内容提前泄露的混乱背景下，政府选择通过一系列增税、福利调整与制度改革来重新分配税负与资 源。 这份预算呈现出四大鲜明特点： 税收全面收紧：260亿英镑增税落地，中产与资产收入普遍被波及。 福利显著扩张：取消两孩福利上限，更多资源流向低收入家庭。 持有成本上升：电动车里程税、豪宅税等新规推高资产成本。 资产与中产成主要承压群体：储蓄者、房东、投资者的税务压力同步上升。 那么，本次预算到底改变了什么？谁最受影响？哪些新的成本会出现？哪些群体会受益？又会对英国房产市场带来哪些趋势变化？ 以下，我们将从四个维度详细拆解本次预算案的核心内容。 01 预算核心： 本次预算关键变化 今天的2025年秋季预算案，是瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）上任以来最受关注、也最具争议的一份预算。 受经济增长预测下调（由OBR意外泄漏）影响，财政大臣最终选择推出总额260亿英镑的增税方案，以填补财政缺口，同时推动福利扩张。 本次预算案的核心政策可概括为： 总体来看，本次预算呈现出四大核心特征： 1 全面提升税收贡献度 ...

人民币还能继续升值吗？20251203 摘要 美联储鸽派信号和疲软的美国经济数据大幅提升了市场对 12 月降息的 预期，成为驱动近期外汇市场，尤其是美元兑人民币汇率走势的关键因 素。 日本央行暗示加息条件成熟，叠加美元指数疲软，推动日元走强；英国 财政预算方案缓解市场担忧，加之美元走弱，使得英镑表现突出。 人民币兑美元即期汇率和中间价同步走强，强化了市场对人民币升值的 预期，央行汇率调控取得阶段性成功，巩固了短期内人民币强势格局。 11 月下旬，企业集中结汇以锁定利润和规避风险，季节性因素也增加结 汇需求，放大了市场波动，为人民币强势提供了额外动力。 美联储降息预期升温导致 2 年期美债收益率下降，美元指数走弱，为包 括人民币在内的非美货币创造了有利的外部环境。 美国经济放缓迹象、政治不确定性和美元信用问题削弱了美元指数，推 动国际资本转移到包括人民币在内的其他资产。 短期内，人民币兑美元大概率将呈现相对强势并伴随波动风险，美联储 降息预期、国内经济基本面和季节性结汇需求等因素支撑人民币走强， 但需警惕美国经济好转导致美元反弹的风险。 Q&A 日元和英镑在近期外汇市场中的表现如何？ 近期人民币相对于美元的升值 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the British pound's movement is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data released [1] - The upcoming US inflation report is identified as a potential catalyst for the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - MonexEurope maintains a neutral stance, expecting the British pound to experience range-bound fluctuations while closely monitoring the UK autumn budget as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, which is earlier than the market's general expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative advantage in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with no significant UK data releases impacting its movement [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - MonexEurope reports that the upcoming US inflation report is a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movement [1] - The company maintains a neutral stance, expecting the pound to remain within a range while monitoring the forthcoming UK autumn budget, which is seen as a key domestic catalyst [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - MonexEurope suggests that the Bank of England may consider an interest rate cut in December, earlier than the market's current expectations, which could diminish the pound's relative strength in terms of interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is primarily influenced by the US dollar and market risk sentiment, with upcoming US inflation data being a potential catalyst for GBP/USD movements [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Influence - The pound's performance is affected by the dollar's movements and overall market risk sentiment, especially in the absence of significant UK data releases [1] Upcoming Events - The US inflation report scheduled for Thursday is anticipated to impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [1] - The UK autumn budget is highlighted as a key domestic catalyst for the pound [1] Future Outlook - Monex Europe suggests that the Bank of England may lower interest rates as early as December, which is sooner than market expectations, potentially diminishing the pound's relative interest rate advantage [1]