【环球时报综合报道】日本执政党自由民主党总裁选举逐步明确将围绕5名核心候选人展开。综合日媒 报道，自民党前干事长茂木敏充已于8日正式宣布参选。现任内阁官房长官林芳正、农林水产大臣小泉 进次郎、曾任经济安全保障担当大臣的高市早苗和小林鹰之均已确定参选意向，预计于本周举行记者会 正式宣布参选。日媒认为，在参众两院均为少数执政党的情况下，如何推进与在野党的合作也将成为争 论焦点。 截至目前有意参选的5人都曾参加过去年9月举行的自民党总裁选举，当时高市早苗、石破茂、小泉进次 郎成"三强"。在第二轮"决选投票"中石破茂逆转当选。 日本首相、自民党总裁石破茂7日宣布辞职后，自民党宣布将于9月22日发布党总裁选举公告，于10月4 日进行投计票。 日本TBS电视台称，小泉进次郎从未担任过党内干事长、政调会长等主要职务，其短板在于"经验不 足"；而高市早苗去年参选的20位推荐人名单中，已有近半数落选或隐退，必须重新确保推荐人才能获 得参选资格。据报道，高市早苗和小泉进次郎的对决或将成最大看点。 当被问及下一任担任自民党总裁的合适人选时，共同社最新舆论调查显示，高市早苗以28%的支持率位 居榜首，小泉进次郎和林芳正分别以22.5 ...

Group 1 - S&P Global indicates that recent tariff measures in the U.S. may exacerbate inflation pressures, but the overall consumer price increase in Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that U.S. companies have borne most of the costs of tariffs, with 64% of the burden falling on them, while consumers and foreign exporters bear 22% and 14%, respectively [2] - If recent tariffs follow the previous cost-shifting pattern, consumer burden could rise to 67%, while corporate burden may drop below 10% [2] Group 2 - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts that emerging Asian currencies may benefit from a weaker dollar in the second half of the year, particularly those with high domestic market-driven economies [1][2] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could positively impact the euro, especially against the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc [4] - UBS highlights increased political uncertainty in Japan due to the ruling party's election losses, which may affect the timing of monetary policy changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen strengthened following the results of the Senate elections, but the outlook remains uncertain due to tariffs and political instability [1] Group 1: Election Results and Market Reaction - The ruling coalition in Japan lost its majority in the Senate elections, leading to a rise in the yen to 148.46 against the dollar, although it remains close to a three-and-a-half-month low [1] - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, failed to secure a majority in both the recent Senate elections and the previous House of Representatives elections, resulting in a minority government [1] - Market reactions to the election results were muted, as investors may have anticipated a worse outcome for the ruling coalition [1] Group 2: Political Implications and Trade Negotiations - The election results come at a critical time as Japan seeks to finalize a tariff agreement with the U.S. by the August 1 deadline [1] - Analysts suggest that if Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns, it could trigger political turmoil, leading to potential sell-offs of Japanese stocks and the yen by foreign investors [1] - There is skepticism regarding the yen's ability to maintain its strength, given the long-term political uncertainty affecting Japanese assets [1]