Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE. The subsequent marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy trends should be monitored. Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE [1][2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,011 (-67) sheets, including 7,762 (-67) registered warehouse receipts and 249 (+0) valid forecasts [3][4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton exports totaled 2.83 million tons, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24, the highest export volume in the same period in history. In July 2025, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a 24% decrease compared to July 2024 [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.8561 million tons, a decrease of 150,600 tons or 7.50% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period. Xinjiang's commercial cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 11.70% from the previous week. The commercial cotton in the inland area was 418,900 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons or 3.69% from the previous week [4]. - As of August 14, based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.536 million tons, an increase of 1.097 million tons year-on-year and 1.041 million tons higher than the average of the past four years [5]. - In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 73.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons or 74.2% year-on-year. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.4% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons or 14% year-on-year [5]. 3. Data Charts - The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][11][13] 4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, after the "Trump - Putin meeting", there was no substantial progress in the cease - fire of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US and Russia may need to conduct multiple consultations. The US economic data was mixed, and the consumer confidence index may have been affected by the lack of substantial progress in various negotiations. Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach a new high, and Brazilian cotton has shown strong development momentum in recent years [14]. - Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [14]

Core Viewpoint - The key element to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a ceasefire, as emphasized by Ukrainian President Zelensky, despite Trump's proposal for a direct peace agreement rather than just a ceasefire [1] Group 1: Statements from Ukrainian Officials - Zelensky stated that he is preparing for a meeting with Trump on the 18th in Washington, coordinating with relevant parties to clarify necessary and feasible steps for dialogue [1] - Zelensky accused Russia of repeatedly rejecting ceasefire calls, complicating the situation further, and highlighted that ending the killings is crucial for a ceasefire [1] - Advisor Sergey Leshchenko reiterated Ukraine's position that a ceasefire must come first before discussing other matters, warning of significant risks if negotiations continue amid ongoing hostilities [1] Group 2: Trump's Proposal - Trump proposed that the best way to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict is to directly reach a peace agreement instead of merely achieving a ceasefire, arguing that ceasefire agreements are often not sustainable [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, marks their first face-to-face encounter since June 2021 [1] - The meeting agenda will include sensitive issues related to US-Russia economic cooperation projects [4][5] - Trump has stated that if Russia does not end the conflict, it will face "serious consequences" [6][7] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine must be involved in any decisions affecting its territory and sovereignty [9][10] - A US official indicated that all options remain on the table for the meeting, including the possibility of Trump leaving early if he perceives a lack of seriousness from Putin [11][12] - The White House maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook regarding the meeting, emphasizing the importance of direct dialogue to assess Putin's intentions on ceasefire [12]

Core Points - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin is highly anticipated, with expectations for potential outcomes [2][3] - Trump has set two possible outcomes for the meeting: either a breakdown in talks or a positive agreement [3] - The meeting is described as exploratory, with Trump emphasizing the need for an end to the ongoing conflict [3] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - Both Trump and Putin are expected to approach the meeting with sincerity, aiming to improve U.S.-Russia relations and potentially end the Ukraine conflict [4] - There is a likelihood of achieving decorative results, such as positive statements about the meeting and establishing communication mechanisms [4] - The meeting may also include specific agreements, such as an invitation for Trump to visit Russia or scheduling future summits [4] Group 2: Potential Substantive Outcomes - A ceasefire agreement is considered the most probable outcome of the meeting, with Russia in a slightly more proactive position [6][9] - Previous attempts at ceasefire, such as the one announced by Russia in May, indicate a willingness to negotiate, although Ukraine has expressed the need for longer ceasefire periods [6] - Ukraine's current military situation suggests a diminishing capacity to sustain the conflict, highlighting its desire for a ceasefire [7] Group 3: Overall Implications - The meeting could establish a direction for a ceasefire and indicate a commitment to further negotiations, which would be seen as a positive development [11]

Core Points - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin is highly anticipated, with uncertain outcomes [2] - Trump has set two potential outcomes for the meeting: either a breakdown in talks or a positive agreement [2] - The meeting is seen as a chance to improve US-Russia relations and potentially end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [3][4] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - Both Trump and Putin are expected to approach the meeting with sincerity, aiming for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict [3] - There is a possibility of achieving decorative outcomes, such as positive statements about the meeting and establishing communication mechanisms [3] - The meeting may also lead to specific agreements, such as an invitation for Trump to visit Russia or scheduling future summits [3] Group 2: Potential Agreements - A likely agreement that could emerge from the meeting is a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia holding a slightly more proactive position [5][8] - The European Council has emphasized that meaningful negotiations can only occur in the context of a ceasefire or reduced hostilities [5] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has expressed concerns about Russia preparing for new offensives, indicating Ukraine's desire for a ceasefire [6][8] Group 3: Military Context - The anticipated summer offensive by Russian forces has not materialized, suggesting a shift in military dynamics [7] - Both sides are facing challenges on the battlefield, with Ukraine's ability to sustain the war diminishing [6][8] - The meeting could establish a direction for a ceasefire, marking a positive step forward in the conflict resolution process [10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin is seen as a potential turning point for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with discussions likely to focus on territorial concessions and peace negotiations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Ukraine may agree to halt fighting and allow Russia to retain control over territories captured during the conflict, including parts of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea [1][3]. - President Zelensky has softened his stance, indicating a willingness to negotiate, but insists that Ukraine will not concede more territory without strong security guarantees and a pathway to NATO membership [6][9]. - Trump emphasizes the need for mutual concessions on land from both Ukraine and Russia to achieve peace, suggesting that he can quickly gauge Putin's willingness to negotiate [1][4]. Group 2: European Concerns - European leaders express concerns that significant concessions to Russia could pose future security risks for the West, as Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory [3][4]. - There is a unified stance among European nations to support Ukraine's territorial integrity, with leaders stating that the current contact line should serve as the starting point for negotiations [7]. - European officials are wary of a potential sidelining of Zelensky in negotiations, fearing that Trump and Putin might reach an agreement without Ukrainian input [4][6]. Group 3: Domestic and International Reactions - Zelensky's administration faces pressure from domestic voters who may be willing to accept territorial concessions for peace, complicating the negotiation landscape [7][9]. - Despite the potential for negotiations, Zelensky has reiterated that Ukraine will not surrender its land to occupiers, highlighting the constitutional barriers to making territorial concessions without a national referendum [9]. - Trump's criticism of Zelensky's need for constitutional approval for land exchanges raises questions about the political dynamics at play in the negotiations [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint As the situation develops, the possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky in the near future has increased. If the leaders of the three parties meet, it could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. However, this negotiation does not include the EU, and although a certain degree of cease - fire cannot be ruled out, the two sides in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have significant differences on the cease - fire, so continuous attention to the development of the situation is needed [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 47 cents to $63.88 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 46 cents to $66.43 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.43% at 497 yuan per barrel [2]. - Putin said that the UAE is one of the suitable locations for a meeting with Trump, and generally, he doesn't mind meeting Zelensky [3]. - The US Treasury Department issued new sanctions against Iran targeting several individuals and entities [3]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had phone calls with leaders of several European countries to discuss the Russia - Ukraine situation. Italian Prime Minister Meloni had phone calls with Trump, Zelensky, and UAE President Mohammed on August 7, focusing on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and calling for a cease - fire agreement. Zelensky also had a phone call with the Prime Minister of Albania and a meeting with the Romanian Foreign Minister [3]. - US President Trump is looking forward to hosting a historic peace summit at the White House with the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia, and a formal peace - signing ceremony will be held, along with the US signing bilateral agreements with these two countries [3]. Investment Logic The increasing possibility of a tri - party meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could be a key milestone in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but due to the exclusion of the EU and the large differences between the two sides on the cease - fire, continuous attention to the situation is required [4]. Strategy Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a historic meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump, which could lead to a significant turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although the necessity of a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky is debated [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Meeting Dynamics - Russia has expressed a high level of optimism regarding the upcoming meeting, suggesting it could be a historic event that clarifies Russia's stance to the U.S. [4][5] - The U.S. has indicated that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is not a prerequisite for the Trump-Putin meeting, although initial statements suggested otherwise [6][5]. - Both sides are actively discussing the meeting's logistics, with Russia proposing the UAE as a potential venue [4][6]. Group 2: Positions on Ceasefire - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that the initiative for ending the conflict lies with Russia, calling for a ceasefire from their side [7][10]. - European leaders, including the President of France and the Prime Minister of Italy, have expressed strong support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [8][9]. - The U.S. Secretary of State highlighted that a ceasefire and territorial issues are critical components for resolving the conflict, requiring compromises from both Ukraine and Russia [6]. Group 3: Challenges to Resolution - Despite the potential meeting, the U.S. retains the option of imposing secondary sanctions on Russia, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [11]. - Key issues such as the status of Ukraine and its military alignment remain contentious, with Ukraine still pursuing NATO membership despite U.S. opposition [11][12]. - The article suggests that a single meeting is unlikely to resolve the deep-seated differences between the parties, particularly regarding ceasefire agreements and territorial disputes [11][12].

Group 1 - Russia is considering concessions to the U.S. President Trump, including a potential "air ceasefire" agreement with Ukraine to avoid secondary sanctions, despite continuing military operations [1] - The WTI crude oil futures dropped from $65.80 to around $65, reflecting a decline of over 1.8% due to the news [1] - U.S. Middle East envoy Welker is set to meet with Russian leaders, recognizing this as one of the last opportunities to reach an agreement with Trump [4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed full support for the U.S. proposal for an "immediate ceasefire" and highlighted Ukraine's previous attempts for an "air silence" initiative [5] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of international pressure on Russia, particularly from the U.S., and the need for stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports [5] - The discussions between Zelensky and Trump focused on the potential for ending the conflict and coordinating positions on defense, sanctions, and bilateral cooperation [5]

Core Points - Russian President Putin expressed willingness to wait for Ukraine to engage in negotiations, indicating that the timing is not currently favorable for Ukraine [1] - Putin positively evaluated the previous negotiations held in Istanbul, highlighting the ongoing interest and expectations surrounding the Russia-Ukraine talks [1] - The first batch of "Zircon" hypersonic missiles has been completed and delivered to the military, showcasing advancements in Russia's military capabilities [1] - The conditions and objectives for resolving the Ukraine issue, proposed by Putin in June 2024, remain valid, emphasizing Russia's stance on the conflict [1] - Putin outlined specific conditions for a ceasefire, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from certain regions and a commitment not to join NATO, which would prompt Russia to announce a ceasefire and commence negotiations [1]