Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, marked by a 5.3% drop on October 21, is seen as a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift in the gold market's long-term bullish trend [1][3][13] Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell nearly $300 from a peak of $4,381 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in five years [1] - The probability of a complete reversal in gold's upward trend is assessed at only 25% by professional institutions [3] - The market's volatility has raised caution among traders, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment [3] Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices - A sudden decrease in market risk aversion, driven by optimistic signals regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has contributed to the sell-off [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.34% on October 21, has further pressured gold prices, making it more expensive for non-U.S. currency investors [3] Underlying Support for Gold - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact despite short-term challenges [5][10] - Key signals to monitor for the gold market include: - Real interest rates: A declining real interest rate environment typically supports gold prices [5] - U.S. dollar trends: Gold remains favorable as long as the dollar does not show a significant upward trend [6] - Gold volatility: Current volatility levels, while heightened, have not reached extreme historical levels, suggesting potential for recovery [8] Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, second only to historical peaks [10] - The People's Bank of China has consistently increased its gold reserves, surpassing 74 million ounces [10] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that gold prices often follow a ten-year cycle, with the current bull market lasting 34 months, slightly exceeding historical averages [12] - Structural changes in the global monetary system, including a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, support gold's transition from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "new monetary anchor" [12] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI data and Federal Reserve meetings, will be critical for assessing short-term gold price movements [12]

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Russian officials indicate that Russia's objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged despite discussions about a potential ceasefire proposed by former U.S. President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Russian Position - Peskov reiterated that Russia's stance on the Ukraine conflict has not changed, emphasizing that this position has been consistently communicated during U.S.-Russia interactions [3]. - The Kremlin has previously demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Donbas region as a condition for a ceasefire agreement [3]. Group 2: U.S. Perspective - Trump suggested a ceasefire along the current front lines, stating that maintaining the status quo in the Donbas region, where approximately 78% of the land is under Russian control, would be preferable [3]. - Trump proposed that both sides should agree to a ceasefire, return home, and halt hostilities, leaving future negotiations open [3]. Group 3: Ukrainian Response - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine's position on ceasefire conditions remains unchanged, rejecting Russia's demands for a complete withdrawal from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions [3].

Core Points - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky was tense and frank, with Trump refusing to provide the requested "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [2][3] - Trump emphasized the need for a ceasefire along the current front lines between Russia and Ukraine, citing the reality of the conflict situation [3][5] - Zelensky described the meeting as "productive" but acknowledged the sensitivity and difficulty of discussions regarding territorial issues [4][5] Summary by Sections Meeting Atmosphere - The atmosphere during the meeting was described as tense and sometimes uncomfortable, with several hours of candid discussions [2] - Trump expressed concerns that providing "Tomahawk" missiles could escalate the conflict further [3] US Position on Military Support - Trump stated that the US would not provide the long-range missiles Ukraine sought, as they are also needed for national defense [3] - A US official indicated that Ukraine appears to be seeking to escalate and prolong the conflict [3] Ceasefire and Negotiations - Trump called for both sides to achieve a ceasefire along the current front lines, reflecting a pragmatic approach to the ongoing conflict [3] - Zelensky responded to Trump's call for a ceasefire, emphasizing the importance of stopping at the current positions before proceeding to negotiations [5] European Support for Ukraine - Following the meeting, European leaders reaffirmed their strong support for Ukraine during a video call with Zelensky [5] - Discussions among European leaders regarding support for Ukraine are set to continue in the coming week [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the UN Secretary-General António Guterres reiterated the UN's support for a comprehensive, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine during a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky [1] - Guterres emphasized the importance of maintaining diplomatic momentum and stated that a ceasefire is the first step towards achieving a just, comprehensive, and sustainable peace in Ukraine, in accordance with the UN Charter, international law, and relevant UN resolutions [1] - The UN is committed to continuing to meet Ukraine's humanitarian needs and supports its recovery and reconstruction efforts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE. The subsequent marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy trends should be monitored. Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE [1][2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,011 (-67) sheets, including 7,762 (-67) registered warehouse receipts and 249 (+0) valid forecasts [3][4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton exports totaled 2.83 million tons, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24, the highest export volume in the same period in history. In July 2025, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a 24% decrease compared to July 2024 [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.8561 million tons, a decrease of 150,600 tons or 7.50% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period. Xinjiang's commercial cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 11.70% from the previous week. The commercial cotton in the inland area was 418,900 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons or 3.69% from the previous week [4]. - As of August 14, based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.536 million tons, an increase of 1.097 million tons year-on-year and 1.041 million tons higher than the average of the past four years [5]. - In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 73.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons or 74.2% year-on-year. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.4% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons or 14% year-on-year [5]. 3. Data Charts - The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][11][13] 4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, after the "Trump - Putin meeting", there was no substantial progress in the cease - fire of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US and Russia may need to conduct multiple consultations. The US economic data was mixed, and the consumer confidence index may have been affected by the lack of substantial progress in various negotiations. Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach a new high, and Brazilian cotton has shown strong development momentum in recent years [14]. - Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [14]

Core Viewpoint - The key element to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a ceasefire, as emphasized by Ukrainian President Zelensky, despite Trump's proposal for a direct peace agreement rather than just a ceasefire [1] Group 1: Statements from Ukrainian Officials - Zelensky stated that he is preparing for a meeting with Trump on the 18th in Washington, coordinating with relevant parties to clarify necessary and feasible steps for dialogue [1] - Zelensky accused Russia of repeatedly rejecting ceasefire calls, complicating the situation further, and highlighted that ending the killings is crucial for a ceasefire [1] - Advisor Sergey Leshchenko reiterated Ukraine's position that a ceasefire must come first before discussing other matters, warning of significant risks if negotiations continue amid ongoing hostilities [1] Group 2: Trump's Proposal - Trump proposed that the best way to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict is to directly reach a peace agreement instead of merely achieving a ceasefire, arguing that ceasefire agreements are often not sustainable [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, marks their first face-to-face encounter since June 2021 [1] - The meeting agenda will include sensitive issues related to US-Russia economic cooperation projects [4][5] - Trump has stated that if Russia does not end the conflict, it will face "serious consequences" [6][7] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine must be involved in any decisions affecting its territory and sovereignty [9][10] - A US official indicated that all options remain on the table for the meeting, including the possibility of Trump leaving early if he perceives a lack of seriousness from Putin [11][12] - The White House maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook regarding the meeting, emphasizing the importance of direct dialogue to assess Putin's intentions on ceasefire [12]

Core Points - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin is highly anticipated, with expectations for potential outcomes [2][3] - Trump has set two possible outcomes for the meeting: either a breakdown in talks or a positive agreement [3] - The meeting is described as exploratory, with Trump emphasizing the need for an end to the ongoing conflict [3] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - Both Trump and Putin are expected to approach the meeting with sincerity, aiming to improve U.S.-Russia relations and potentially end the Ukraine conflict [4] - There is a likelihood of achieving decorative results, such as positive statements about the meeting and establishing communication mechanisms [4] - The meeting may also include specific agreements, such as an invitation for Trump to visit Russia or scheduling future summits [4] Group 2: Potential Substantive Outcomes - A ceasefire agreement is considered the most probable outcome of the meeting, with Russia in a slightly more proactive position [6][9] - Previous attempts at ceasefire, such as the one announced by Russia in May, indicate a willingness to negotiate, although Ukraine has expressed the need for longer ceasefire periods [6] - Ukraine's current military situation suggests a diminishing capacity to sustain the conflict, highlighting its desire for a ceasefire [7] Group 3: Overall Implications - The meeting could establish a direction for a ceasefire and indicate a commitment to further negotiations, which would be seen as a positive development [11]

Core Points - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin is highly anticipated, with uncertain outcomes [2] - Trump has set two potential outcomes for the meeting: either a breakdown in talks or a positive agreement [2] - The meeting is seen as a chance to improve US-Russia relations and potentially end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [3][4] Group 1: Meeting Expectations - Both Trump and Putin are expected to approach the meeting with sincerity, aiming for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict [3] - There is a possibility of achieving decorative outcomes, such as positive statements about the meeting and establishing communication mechanisms [3] - The meeting may also lead to specific agreements, such as an invitation for Trump to visit Russia or scheduling future summits [3] Group 2: Potential Agreements - A likely agreement that could emerge from the meeting is a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia holding a slightly more proactive position [5][8] - The European Council has emphasized that meaningful negotiations can only occur in the context of a ceasefire or reduced hostilities [5] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has expressed concerns about Russia preparing for new offensives, indicating Ukraine's desire for a ceasefire [6][8] Group 3: Military Context - The anticipated summer offensive by Russian forces has not materialized, suggesting a shift in military dynamics [7] - Both sides are facing challenges on the battlefield, with Ukraine's ability to sustain the war diminishing [6][8] - The meeting could establish a direction for a ceasefire, marking a positive step forward in the conflict resolution process [10]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin is seen as a potential turning point for the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with discussions likely to focus on territorial concessions and peace negotiations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Ukraine may agree to halt fighting and allow Russia to retain control over territories captured during the conflict, including parts of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea [1][3]. - President Zelensky has softened his stance, indicating a willingness to negotiate, but insists that Ukraine will not concede more territory without strong security guarantees and a pathway to NATO membership [6][9]. - Trump emphasizes the need for mutual concessions on land from both Ukraine and Russia to achieve peace, suggesting that he can quickly gauge Putin's willingness to negotiate [1][4]. Group 2: European Concerns - European leaders express concerns that significant concessions to Russia could pose future security risks for the West, as Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory [3][4]. - There is a unified stance among European nations to support Ukraine's territorial integrity, with leaders stating that the current contact line should serve as the starting point for negotiations [7]. - European officials are wary of a potential sidelining of Zelensky in negotiations, fearing that Trump and Putin might reach an agreement without Ukrainian input [4][6]. Group 3: Domestic and International Reactions - Zelensky's administration faces pressure from domestic voters who may be willing to accept territorial concessions for peace, complicating the negotiation landscape [7][9]. - Despite the potential for negotiations, Zelensky has reiterated that Ukraine will not surrender its land to occupiers, highlighting the constitutional barriers to making territorial concessions without a national referendum [9]. - Trump's criticism of Zelensky's need for constitutional approval for land exchanges raises questions about the political dynamics at play in the negotiations [9].