Core Viewpoint - The recent loss of the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Japan's House of Councillors election marks a significant political setback, as it is the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it has failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet [1][2]. Political Impact - The ruling coalition, consisting of the LDP and Komeito, lost its majority in the House of Councillors, with the opposition and independents securing 76 seats, reaching a total of 124 seats out of 248 [2][3]. - This election result is seen as a referendum on Ishiba's governance and Japan's economic policies, particularly in light of ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and rising inflation [1][2]. Economic Concerns - The political instability has led to significant market volatility, with fears of a "triple whammy" in stocks, bonds, and currency markets following the election results [2][6]. - Japan's long-term government bond yields surged due to market concerns over potential fiscal expansion beyond the government's capacity [1][6]. - The economic outlook is further complicated by rising inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have already led to a decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. [9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the election, the Japanese yen initially strengthened against the dollar, reflecting market adjustments to the political risk, although the overall trend suggests a potential depreciation of the yen due to fiscal expansion policies and external pressures [6][7]. - The Japanese stock market's future remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting that the loss of a majority may hinder the government's ability to implement effective economic policies, potentially dampening investor confidence [8][10]. Governance Challenges - Analysts indicate that Ishiba's administration faces significant challenges in policy implementation, particularly regarding tax cuts and social security issues, amidst a backdrop of declining public support [3][5]. - The political landscape is shifting towards a more fragmented system, which may complicate long-term economic reforms and exacerbate existing structural issues within Japan's economy [5][9].

日本公明党总部 据央视新闻报道，日本国会第27届参议院选举初步计票结果显示，由自民党和公明党组成的执 政联盟未获参议院过半席位。 这是自民党自1955年成立以来， 首次在国会众参两院都未能取 得过半数席位。 自民党麻生派"逼宫"，首相或下台 据央视新闻报道，面对此次国会参议院选举的历史性惨败，自民党内要求石破首相下台的声浪 持续高涨。 自民党内由最高顾问、前首相麻生太郎领导的麻生派议员已紧急召开会议研判局势。麻生太郎 已向身边人士明确表示 "不会允许石破茂继续执政" ， 展现出了明显的"逼宫"态势。 选民：更倾向换在野党上台 截至20日晚，日本时事通讯社当天实施的参议院选举出口调查显示，关于选民期待的选后政权 形态，"在野党主导的政权更迭"以24.3%的支持率居首，而"自公执政联盟延续"仅获18.4%支 持，选择"自公联盟吸纳国民民主党"的受访者占9.6%，位列第三。 分析人士指出， 不排除日本首相换人的可能性。 因为执政联盟在众参两院都失去了多数席 位，就会造成政府在国会提交的每一项法案都要被迫向反对党让步的局面。这样一来，石破茂 在压力下辞职，自民党选举新总裁的剧本就有可能再次上演。 石破茂：将继续执政 ...