Core Viewpoint - The recent loss of the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Japan's House of Councillors election marks a significant political setback, as it is the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it has failed to secure a majority in both houses of the National Diet [1][2]. Political Impact - The ruling coalition, consisting of the LDP and Komeito, lost its majority in the House of Councillors, with the opposition and independents securing 76 seats, reaching a total of 124 seats out of 248 [2][3]. - This election result is seen as a referendum on Ishiba's governance and Japan's economic policies, particularly in light of ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations and rising inflation [1][2]. Economic Concerns - The political instability has led to significant market volatility, with fears of a "triple whammy" in stocks, bonds, and currency markets following the election results [2][6]. - Japan's long-term government bond yields surged due to market concerns over potential fiscal expansion beyond the government's capacity [1][6]. - The economic outlook is further complicated by rising inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have already led to a decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. [9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the election, the Japanese yen initially strengthened against the dollar, reflecting market adjustments to the political risk, although the overall trend suggests a potential depreciation of the yen due to fiscal expansion policies and external pressures [6][7]. - The Japanese stock market's future remains uncertain, with analysts suggesting that the loss of a majority may hinder the government's ability to implement effective economic policies, potentially dampening investor confidence [8][10]. Governance Challenges - Analysts indicate that Ishiba's administration faces significant challenges in policy implementation, particularly regarding tax cuts and social security issues, amidst a backdrop of declining public support [3][5]. - The political landscape is shifting towards a more fragmented system, which may complicate long-term economic reforms and exacerbate existing structural issues within Japan's economy [5][9].

日本执政联盟丧失参议院过半议席 石破茂执政之路更艰难 中新网7月21日电(记者 张奥林)日本第27届参议院选举投票于20日进行，目前计票工作仍在进行中。根 据初步结果，在本次选举中，自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟未能保住过半数席位，继众议院之后，在 参议院也成为了少数派执政党。 执政联盟大幅"溃退" 自民党和公明党的议席从选前的66席大幅减少，未能达到维持过半数所需的50席这一目标，这也意味 着，继众议院之后，自公执政联盟在参议院也成为了少数派执政党。 日本广播协会(NHK)指出，以自民党为核心的政权在众参两院均未过半数，这是自民党1955年建党以来 的首次。 关于参议院选举结果，经济同友会代表干事新浪刚史评论称："执政联盟未能过半，反映出在美国关税 措施等当下紧迫课题面前，政府未能迅速提出有效的经济政策，导致国民对政权运作的不安加剧。" 他进一步指出，日本积压了大量重要政策课题，日本应尽快完成与美国的关税谈判。 据NHK统计，截至当地时间19日19时30分的推算投票率已超过55%，若把提前投票计算在内，本次选举 的最终推算投票率将在57.91%左右，有望超过三年前的52.05%。 图片来源：日本广播协会(NH ...