以下文章来源于智本社 ，作者清和社长 智本社 . 一家硬核学习社。 本文来自微信公众号： 智本社 ，作者：清和社长，头图来自：视觉中国 当然，这并不是告诉我们对资本市场失去敬畏，而是更加理性认识泡沫，切勿谈泡沫色变。 该如何定义泡沫？ 这并不难。我们可以将泡沫分为两类：一是产业投资泡沫，二是二级市场泡沫。这两类是相互关联的，但它们的特征和识别方法是不同的。 产业投资泡沫，是识别AI泡沫更为根本的视角，它关注产业投资的供求关系。比如一个国家大规模建设基建，出现大量的基建过剩，这就 是一种投资泡沫。当AI相关的投资所产生的供给远远超过需求时，我们认为这轮技术浪潮存在巨大泡沫。 AI板块贡献了美股大部分盈利和涨幅。美股"七姐妹"累积上涨280%左右，剔除"七姐妹"的标普其它成份指数涨幅有限。 不过，每当美股创历史新高时，投资者对AI泡沫的担忧就会上升。当前AI是否存在泡沫？该如何投资？ 一、如何识别泡沫？ 泡沫，这个词在汉语里存在贬义倾向，意为"短暂的不可持续的瞬间即逝的又极易迷惑人的事物"。但在金融市场中，泡沫是一个中性概念。 泡沫，也只有泡沫，才能吸引大量的资本进入技术领域投资。实际上，过去每一轮技术革命，如蒸 ...

Group 1 - Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, major US stock indices have experienced significant increases, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rising by 40%, 73%, and 112% respectively by December 2, 2025 [1] - The AI sector has contributed significantly to the profits and gains in the US stock market, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks rising approximately 280%, while other S&P components showed limited growth [2] - Concerns about an AI bubble have increased as US stocks reach historical highs, prompting discussions on how to identify and invest in potential bubbles [3][4] Group 2 - Bubbles can be categorized into two types: industrial investment bubbles and secondary market bubbles, each with distinct characteristics and identification methods [5] - The current investment in computer equipment and software in the US has increased from 2.9% to 3.3% of nominal GDP since 2023, contributing significantly to economic growth [6] - Historical trends indicate that while over-investment occurs during technological revolutions, it often lays the groundwork for long-term industry growth [7] Group 3 - Secondary market bubbles are characterized by significant deviations in asset prices from earnings, with historical experience guiding the identification of such bubbles [9] - Key indicators for identifying secondary market bubbles include profitability and debt levels, with the "Magnificent Seven" currently having a dynamic P/E ratio around 30, compared to 40-60 during the internet bubble [10][13] - The AI sector has driven substantial returns in the S&P 500, contributing 75% of total returns and 79% of profit growth since the release of ChatGPT [13] Group 4 - The current AI investment phase is characterized by large-scale investments and rising stock prices, with the commercialization of AI applications expected to occur in the next five years [15][21] - The US economy is experiencing a combination of AI innovation cycles, physical investment cycles, and a Federal Reserve easing cycle, which are expected to drive growth [20][25] - The focus on AI is driven by the need for efficiency in high-cost knowledge work, with AI poised to replace many traditional roles [23][24] Group 5 - Investors are encouraged to participate in the AI wave, as both US and Chinese tech companies are heavily investing in AI, making it a necessity for survival in the market [27] - Strategies for participating in the market include long-term investments in index ETFs and multinational companies, particularly in the tech sector [30] - The concentration of capital in tech stocks is attributed to the transition to a post-industrial economy, where time assets become increasingly valuable [31][32]