Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand has continued its seasonal recovery, and steel inventories have continued to decline. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to a new low for the year, and the molten iron output has decreased moderately. The supply of finished products still shows structural differentiation. However, as the peak season is more than half over, there is limited room for incremental demand, and there are expectations of production cuts after the profit margins of steel mills shrink. Currently, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, and the improvement in the weak industrial reality is limited. Nevertheless, the strong performance of coking coal and coke has provided cost support for steel prices, and the macro - environment is favorable. In the short term, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level. - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of the five major steel products has decreased compared to the previous period. Among them, medium - thick plates have slightly increased in inventory, while rebar has seen a significant reduction in inventory, and other products have slightly decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to narrow, the daily average molten iron output has continued to decline slightly, the output of the five major steel products has varied, the output of building materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and the output of plates has slightly decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products has rebounded compared to the previous period. The demand is still in the traditional peak season with obvious seasonal characteristics. However, the investment growth rates in infrastructure and real estate construction have continued to decline, the consumption of building materials remains weak, and plates are also facing the pressure of a marginal weakening in manufacturing demand [6]. - **Strategy**: The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - As of October 24, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3250 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 40 yuan/ton. The RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was - 90 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 204 yuan/ton [15][33]. 3.3. Inventory - As of the week of October 19, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1554.85 tons, a decrease of 27.41 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, rebar inventory was 622.11 tons, a decrease of 18.94 tons; hot - rolled coil inventory was 414.92 tons, a decrease of 4.27 tons; wire rod inventory was 142.31 tons, a decrease of 0.93 tons; cold - rolled inventory was 179.02 tons, a decrease of 4.43 tons; and medium - thick plate inventory was 196.49 tons, an increase of 1.16 tons [8]. 3.4. Supply - As of the week of October 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39%; the profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79%; the daily average molten iron output was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 67.86%, a decrease of 0.99%; the capacity utilization rate was 53.20%, a decrease of 0.9%; the scrap consumption was 252.94 tons, a decrease of 6.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 865.32 tons, an increase of 8.37 tons compared to the previous period [8]. 3.5. Demand - As of the week of October 19, the average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 10.13 tons, an increase of 0.56 tons compared to the previous period; the procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai was 19,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 226.01 tons, an increase of 6.26 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 326.73 tons, an increase of 11.18 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 89.25 tons, an increase of 4.83 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 90.5 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 160.24 tons, a decrease of 5.19 tons [8].