期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货螺纹钢周报 成本支撑较强，钢价低位震荡运行 20251026 孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 从业资格号：F0276620 0769-22110802 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 u 库存：最新钢联五大品种库存环比下降。分品种看，中厚板小幅累库，螺纹钢去库幅度较好，其它品种均小 幅去库。 u 供应：钢厂盈利持续收窄，日均铁水产量继续小幅下降，五大材产量增减不一，建材产量止跌回升，板材产 量略有减少。 u 需求：五大材总表需环比回升，需求仍处传统旺季，季节性特征明显。不过基建和房建投资增速继续下滑， 建材消费依旧偏弱，板材也面临制造业需求边际转弱压力。 u 观点：近期下游需求延续季节性修复，钢材库存延续去化趋势，钢厂盈利率跌至年内新低，铁水产量温和下 降，成材供应依旧呈结构分化，不过随着旺季过半，需求缺乏增量空间，钢厂利润收缩后存在减产预期。目 前旺季需求不及预期，产业弱现实改善有限，不过双焦表现偏强 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price decline of 2.14% on October 24, 2023, with a current price of 4.11 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 31.873 billion CNY [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Shougang's stock price has increased by 35.73%, with a slight increase of 0.49% over the last five trading days, but a decline of 11.04% over the last 20 days and 5.30% over the last 60 days [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 2.12% to 83,800, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.17% to 77,692 shares [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shougang reported operating revenue of 52.517 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 66.45% to 656 million CNY [2] - Since its A-share listing, Shougang has distributed a total of 8.221 billion CNY in dividends, with 405 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Composition - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest circulating shareholder, holding 53.6133 million shares, an increase of 9.779 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF is the tenth largest circulating shareholder, holding 23.1542 million shares as a new shareholder [3]

Core Insights - Shougang Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 44.32% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 8.44% over the last five trading days [1] - The company reported a revenue of 525.17 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 66.45% to 6.57 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 82.21 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.05 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. had 83,800 shareholders, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.17% to 77,692 shares [2] Shareholder Composition - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 53.61 million shares, an increase of 9.78 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF entered as a new shareholder, holding 23.15 million shares [3] Market Activity - On October 10, 2023, Shougang Co., Ltd.'s stock price reached 4.37 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.41 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.50% [1] - The company experienced a net outflow of 6.47 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, despite a year-to-date increase, indicating potential volatility in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35% [2]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.657 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 66.45% [2]. Stock Market Activity - On September 29, 2023, Shougang's stock price fell by 2.24%, trading at 3.93 yuan per share with a total market capitalization of 30.477 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 29.79%, but has declined by 5.98% over the last five trading days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 83,800, a reduction of 2.12% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.17% to 77,692 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shougang has distributed a total of 8.221 billion yuan in dividends, with 0.405 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Major Shareholders - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 53.6133 million shares, an increase of 9.779 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Southern CSI 500 ETF is a new entrant among the top ten circulating shareholders, holding 23.1542 million shares [3].

Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

Price Trends - Traditional industry prices show signs of recovery in September, with cement prices in East China rising to 428 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton, and in Southwest China to 479 CNY/ton, up 14 CNY/ton[103] - Steel prices have improved, with rebar price index increasing by 23 CNY/ton to 3312.2 CNY/ton, hot-rolled prices up 15.6 CNY/ton to 3495.4 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled prices up 25.8 CNY/ton to 3980.6 CNY/ton[111][115] - Float glass prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 1163 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton[123] New Energy Sector - Photovoltaic product price index has increased by 3.29% to 15.2% since July, with polysilicon prices rising 55% to 6.54 USD/kg and domestic polysilicon prices up 41.1% to 6.9 USD/kg[127][130] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased by 20.5% to 72,400 CNY/ton[134] Production and Capacity Utilization - Steel mill capacity utilization rose to 86.03%, up 0.1 percentage points, while rebar capacity utilization increased to 42.95%, up 0.65 percentage points[42][17] - Cement clinker capacity utilization decreased to 53.06%, down 2.63 percentage points[66] Economic Indicators - The average daily output of crude steel in early September was 2.087 million tons, up 140,000 tons from late August, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%[70] - The average daily output of cement reached 15.759 million tons, up 163,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3%[93]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, and industrial sectors, indicating fluctuations in prices and production levels across various commodities and industries. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is at -2.8 percentage points in August 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is at $3643 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late August, the average daily production of crude steel from key enterprises decreased by 7.94% month-on-month [5] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 1.53%, cement price index down by 0.57%, rubber down by 1.00%, coke down by 3.40%, coking coal down by 0.93%, and iron ore up by 0.38% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points, cement by 8.00 percentage points, while asphalt and full-steel tire operating rates changed by -1.8 percentage points and +5.81 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass increased by 0.39% and remained unchanged respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide at -1277 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is at 76.01% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel down by 2.63%, copper up by 1.36%, and aluminum up by 1.79%, with corresponding gross profit changes of -591.05%, a loss of 0.59%, and an increase of 13.04% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 73.46%, with a month-on-month increase of 5.99 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached a year-to-date high at 21,050 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.79% and estimated profit at 3,683 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] - The price of copper is at 81,140 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% [8] - The price of molybdenum concentrate is at 4,515 yuan/ton, down by 1.95%, while tungsten concentrate is at 286,500 yuan/ton, down by 0.87% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is at 4.00 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 240 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 290 yuan/ton, down by 40 yuan/ton [9] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 120 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 20.00% [9] Group 7: Export Chain - In August 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index is at 1,125.30 points this week, down by 2.07% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 79.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.10 percentage points [10] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.38%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +5.98% [11] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shougang Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.64% on September 16, reaching 4.68 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 291 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.00%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 36.293 billion CNY [1] - Shougang Co., Ltd. is based in Beijing and was established on October 15, 1999, with its listing date on December 16, 1999. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of soft magnetic materials (electrical steel) and steel products [1] - The revenue composition of Shougang Co., Ltd. includes cold-rolled products at 41.42%, hot-rolled products at 39.28%, soft magnetic materials at 15.10%, and other products at 3.22% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Hongde Fund has one fund heavily invested in Shougang Co., Ltd. The Hongde Quality Governance Mixed Fund (011530) held 1.0737 million shares in the second quarter, accounting for 1.06% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Hongde Quality Governance Mixed Fund (011530) was established on March 23, 2021, with a current scale of 344 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 11.05%, ranking 5639 out of 8174 in its category, while the one-year return is 29.21%, ranking 5288 out of 7982 [2]

Company Overview - Shougang Corporation is located in Beijing and was established on October 15, 1999, with its listing date on December 16, 1999 [1] - The company primarily engages in the production and sales of electrical steel and steel products, with main business revenue composition as follows: cold-rolled 41.42%, hot-rolled 39.28%, soft magnetic materials 15.10%, others 2.84%, other products 0.98%, and steel billets 0.38% [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Shougang Corporation reported a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.657 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 66.45% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 8.221 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.03 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Performance - On September 16, Shougang Corporation's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 4.34 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 33.657 billion yuan [1] - The stock has increased by 43.33% year-to-date, with a 4.08% increase over the last five trading days, 4.58% over the last twenty days, and 29.55% over the last sixty days [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shougang Corporation was 83,800, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous period, with an average of 77,692 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.17% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 53.6133 million shares, an increase of 9.779 million shares from the previous period, while Southern CSI 500 ETF is a new shareholder with 23.1542 million shares [3] Market Activity - The net inflow of main funds was 4.9161 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 27.94% of purchases and 22.12% of sales [1] - The company is categorized under the steel industry, specifically in the sub-sector of general steel and sheet products, and is associated with concepts such as low price, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration, Beijing state-owned assets, Xiong'an New Area, and Tesla [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant stock price increase of 45.64% year-to-date, with recent trading activity showing a slight decline of 2.00% on September 15, 2023, indicating potential volatility in the market [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 66.45% to 0.657 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 8.221 billion yuan, with 1.03 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shougang Co., Ltd. was 83,800, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous period, with an average of 77,692 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.17% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.779 million shares to 53.6133 million shares, and Southern CSI 500 ETF, which is a new shareholder with 2.31542 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On September 15, 2023, Shougang Co., Ltd. saw a trading volume of 118 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.40% and a total market capitalization of 34.199 billion yuan [1]. - The stock experienced a net outflow of 19.7348 million yuan from major funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1].