Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - London gold prices increased by 1.07% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel production hit a new low for the year in late July [5] - Price changes included rebar down 0.60%, cement price index down 0.37%, rubber down 1.71%, coke up 3.79%, coking coal up 3.55%, and iron ore up 1.31% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.15 percentage points, while cement and asphalt production rates increased by 10.00% and decreased by 0.6% respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.39% and 0.00% respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1353 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 73% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +6.01%, -18.19%, and +4.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization rate reached a new high since 2012 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 7.35% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,630 CNY/ton, up 0.68%, with estimated profit at 3,050 CNY/ton (excluding tax), up 4.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 140 CNY/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel was 380 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar steel was 160 CNY/ton this week [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1200.73 points, down 2.56% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.70%, up 0.30 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.23%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery at +6.21% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 47.28% and 69.23% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July 2025, down 6.16% from the previous month [4] - The London gold spot price increased by 0.79% compared to the previous week [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI new orders index reached a 9-month high in July [5] - Weekly price changes included rebar down 2.90%, cement price index down 1.37%, rubber down 2.33%, coke up 3.94%, coking coal up 0.98%, and iron ore down 2.55% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates changed by -0.57 percentage points, +0.20 percentage points, +3.0 percentage points, and -3.94 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and flat glass prices changed by -0.77% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1409 CNY/ton [6] - The flat glass operating rate was 75% this week [6] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for July was 49.40%, down 0.8 percentage points [7] - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled down 0.19%, copper down 1.43%, and aluminum down 1.49%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +12.77%, -18.19%, and -10.26% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices reached a new high since 2011 [8] - Graphite electrode price was 18,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1357.4 CNY/ton, down 10.61% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,490 CNY/ton, down 1.49%, with estimated profit at 2926 CNY/ton (excluding tax), down 10.26% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.27 this week [9] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [9] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 390 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in July 2025 was 47.10%, down 0.6 percentage points [10] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points this week, down 2.30% [10] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.40%, up 0.40 percentage points [10] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.75%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles at -0.51% [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 index was 46.36% and 64.79% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 index is 0.57, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [2]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [2]. - In the short term, the market will experience volatile consolidation, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trend Review - Futures market: This week, the main RB2510 rebar contract retraced, closing at 3,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 89 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.816 million lots, a decrease of 90,000 lots. The main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract slightly retraced, closing at 33,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.4339 million lots, a decrease of 73,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved lower. As of July 31, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved lower. As of July 31, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,370 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main RB2510 rebar contract compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 165 yuan/ton, a change of +91 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 40 yuan/ton, a change of +57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the RB2601 - RB2510 spread was 56 yuan/ton, a change of +13 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - HC2510 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the HC2510 - RB2510 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a change of +34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 136 yuan/ton, a change of +17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 2.18 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from last week but an increase of 40,900 tons compared with last year [20]. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 867,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 450 tons. The increase was mainly in cold - and hot - rolled coils, while the output of other varieties decreased to varying degrees [20]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [20]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the construction of a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating good prospects for future infrastructure steel demand. - On the 31st, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations ended, and both sides agreed to extend the tariff truce period originally due to expire on August 12 by 90 days. The tariffs on China remained the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the path for the implementation of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time due to the arrival of the seasonal off - season for building materials [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 942,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,900 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,520 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.35189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,900 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [36]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [47]. - With the recovery of profits, electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to increase production and resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. However, due to poor steel sales, the overall recovery amplitude narrowed. As of July 30, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country increased by 2.19% to 74.21%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.56% to 57.05%, both reaching an eight - week high [47]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - Affected by domestic policies this week, the prices of major raw materials fluctuated significantly. The price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3,097 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [60]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related market trends in July 2025, including production, demand, CPI, and PPI indicators, and points out the price changes and influencing factors of various products and industries [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Fluctuates at a High Level - Power plant daily consumption fluctuates at a high level. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 882,100 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.18 million tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18; the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. On July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan was 92.0%, unchanged from July 18 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate shows weak and stable operation. On July 24, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined moderately [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Approach Previous Lows - The new - home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 201,000 square meters, a 31.4% decrease compared to the same period in June, an 18.8% decrease compared to the same period in July last year, and a 34.7% decrease compared to the same period in July 2023 [4][22]. - The retail sales of the auto market are stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year [4][23]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22 [4][30]. - Cement prices approach previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreasing by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively [4][31]. - Glass prices corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22 [4][37]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3% [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices weaken. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22 [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index fluctuates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, eggs (+5.1%) > fruits (+1.7%) > mutton (+0.9%) > vegetables (+0.7%) > chicken (+0.4%) > beef (-0.02%) > pork (-1.2%) [4][50]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices rise. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22 [4][53]. - Copper and aluminum prices decline. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22 [4][58]. - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index widens. On July 29, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.8% compared to July 22, and the CRB index decreased by 0.3% [4][58]. - Most industrial product prices rise. Since July, most industrial product prices have increased, with wire rod, cement, and steam coal prices decreasing month - on - month, while other industrial product prices increasing month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest increases. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries, focusing on liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, pricing relationships, export chains, and valuation metrics, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, with weekly price changes showing rebar up by 5.50%, cement price index down by 2.05%, rubber up by 3.09%, coke up by 8.55%, coking coal up by 6.60%, and iron ore up by 0.64% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires decreased by 0.08 percentage points, 6.80 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.08 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -0.38% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1350 yuan/ton; flat glass operating rate was 75% [5] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 6.42%, 1.05%, and 0.19% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +107.38%, -18.19%, and -1.86% [6] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.87%, down by 0.12 percentage points [6] - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20% [6] Subcategory Products - Prices for graphite electrodes were 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 15.09% [7] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,800 yuan/ton, up by 0.19%, with estimated profit at 3260 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 1.86% [7] - Electrolytic copper price was 79,580 yuan/ton, up by 1.05% [7] Pricing Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.37 this week; the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar was 100 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 150 yuan/ton, down by 6.25% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1261.35 points, down by 3.24% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, down by 0.70 percentage points [9] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.57, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [11]

核心观点： 本周五大材库存微降 1.16 万吨至 1336.5 万吨，为连续第 4 周小幅下降。其中，社会库存环比 增加，钢厂库存创春节以来最低。具体来看，螺纹钢社会库存增加 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存则减少 7.43 万吨，周产量增加 2.9 万吨，表观需求回升 5%或 10.41 万吨至 216.58 万吨；热卷产量下降，但库 存增加，表需减少 2.64%或 8.55 万吨至 315.24 万吨，此外，线材和冷轧表需降超 2%，中厚板表需 微增。 综合来看，目前产业逻辑占比较低，政策预期主导行情，"反内卷"和"雅江工程"驱动，叠 加"超产煤矿停产整改"对原料的成本支撑，钢价短期高位盘整，上涨趋势不变，但动能有所放缓， 后期重点关注政策情况。 钢材周度策略报告 上涨趋势不变，动能有所放缓 后市展望：短期震荡盘整，长期上涨趋势不变 | 钢材 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 五大材产量 | 偏多 | 本周 Mysteel 统计分五大材产量周度产量合计为 866.97 万吨，环比-1.22 万吨。 | | | | "反内卷"政策信号效果逐渐显现。 | | 五大材库存 | 偏空 | ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the steel industry, highlighting significant trends and challenges faced in the market during the first half of 2025 and projections for the remainder of the year [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: Steel exports reached a record high in the first half of the year, with expectations to exceed 100 million tons for the full year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% due to strong overseas demand and China's cost advantages [1][3]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: Since July, new orders have significantly declined, which may lead to deteriorating export data in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3. **Inventory Trends**: The black series industry chain has been in a continuous destocking phase since 2022, maintaining low to medium inventory levels across all segments, indicating a lack of speculative behavior in the market [1][5]. 4. **Profit Margins**: Electric arc furnace steel mills reported minimal profits, while blast furnace profits remained between 100 to 200 RMB, primarily benefiting from lower prices of thermal and coking coal [1][7]. 5. **Coking Coal Price Surge**: Coking coal prices have surged by 60% to 80%, with significant increases in market positions, yet no intervention from exchanges has been observed [1][9]. 6. **Policy Impact**: The "anti-involution" policy has shifted market trading logic, with expectations of supply-side reforms influencing prices of coking coal and polysilicon, although no significant production cuts in the steel and coal sectors have been noted [1][10][11]. 7. **Future Production Plans**: Iron output is expected to slightly increase in August, but the actual impact will depend on regulatory enforcement and whether coal mines and steel mills will genuinely reduce production [2][20]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently in a speculative phase, with expectations of future demand not yet materializing into actual demand increases [20][31]. 9. **Regulatory Environment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the steel industry, focusing on controlling growth, optimizing existing capacity, and phasing out outdated production [18]. 10. **Profitability Concerns**: While steel mills are currently profitable, downstream processing plants are experiencing narrowing margins, leading to a tense spot market situation [19][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Composition**: The export share of steel billet and rebar has significantly increased, while the share of rolled products has decreased due to anti-dumping measures in regions like Southeast Asia and South Korea [4]. - **Market Predictions**: The market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation phase starting in August, influenced by production changes rather than demand fluctuations [23]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The steel industry is anticipated to maintain reasonable profitability over the next few years, but the actual execution of supply-side reforms remains uncertain [33]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the steel industry.

【现货】 现货维稳，期货走弱，基差稍走强。钢坯价格-20在2950元。华东螺纹实际成交价维稳在3090元每吨。 10月合约期货升水现货24元。华东热卷维稳至3300元每吨，主力合约贴水现货27元每吨。 【成本和利润】 【需求】 五大材表需高位持稳，5月表需环比4月下降，但6-7月表需并未进一步回落，淡季需求好于预期。本期 表需回落，五大材表需-12.2万吨至873万吨。6-7月产量和表需差收窄，7月热卷产量高于表需，而螺纹 产量略低于表需。 【库存】 近期产量跟随表需波动，库存持续走势，淡季累库不及预期。本期五大材库存环比-0.35万吨至1340万 吨，其中螺纹-5万吨至540万吨；热卷+0.6万吨至345.7万吨。螺纹供需双降，库存维持去库；热卷小幅 累库。 【观点】 周二盘面偏弱走势，下午明显走弱，但尾盘再次修复，钢材在当前压力位置博弈较明显。昨公布的行业 数据显示，出口对经济拉动左右比较明显，内需地产和基建边际依然偏弱走势。在下半年中美关税预期 下，需求易跌难涨，同时还面临去年下半年高基数问题。周度数据显示，表需处于季节性回落走势。产 量跟随表需下滑，库存维持持平走势，7月供需基本平衡，矛盾不大。产业端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and industry performance metrics, highlighting trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export orders, which may present investment opportunities and risks in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 1.57%, and iron ore up by 2.47% [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -1.49% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1268 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Products Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.92%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.51 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum reached a new high since 2012 [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3,331 yuan/ton (excluding tax), reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.84% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 110 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,313.70 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.18% [9] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector showing the best performance at +6.12% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent news about a potential 30% production cut in Tangshan's steel industry has stirred the market, but the immediate impact on steel prices and stocks appears to be stabilizing, with a long-term downward trend in steel prices expected [2][6]. Group 1: Production Cuts and Market Impact - Tangshan's steel production cut is expected to reduce iron water capacity by approximately 50,000 tons per day, which may alleviate supply pressure in the region and stabilize the market [5][6]. - The production cut rumors primarily target sintering processes, and companies like Hebei Steel, which have high environmental performance ratings, are expected to be less affected [5][6]. - Despite initial market optimism following the production cut news, steel prices have begun to decline again, with rebar prices averaging 3,182 yuan per ton as of July 8, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Financial Performance - In 2017, Hebei Steel's production was reduced due to environmental restrictions, with iron, crude steel, and steel product outputs decreasing by 6.66%, 7.04%, and 5.31% respectively [3]. - The steel industry saw a significant profit increase in 2021, with major steel enterprises achieving a total profit of 352.4 billion yuan, a 59.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - Hebei Steel's revenue in 2021 was 149.63 billion yuan, a 38.98% increase, while its net profit grew by 58.32% to 2.688 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face continued pressure in the second half of the year, with average steel prices projected to decline compared to the first half [7][8]. - However, there is a potential for a short-term rebound in steel prices as seasonal demand increases, contingent on production control measures and supply-demand dynamics [8].