报告摘要 流动性：M1 M2增速差在9月创下近56个月高点后，连续两个月回落 （1）BCI中小企业融资环境指数2025年11月值为52.50，环比上月+0.17%；（2）M1和M2增速差与上 证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1和M2增速差在2025年11月为-3.1个百分点，环比-1.10个百分点； （3）本周伦敦金现价格为4299美元/盎司。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （2）电解铝价格为22070元/吨，环比-0.36%，测算利润为4759元/吨（不含税），环比+0.19%； 基建和地产链条：高炉产能利用率连续两周低于去年同期水平 （ 1 ） 本 周 价 格 变 动 ： 螺 纹 -0.61% 、 水 泥 价 格 指 数 +0.86% 、 橡 胶 +1.71% 、 ...

Price Adjustments Overview - Ansteel has announced a price increase for various products effective January 2026, with hot-rolled, pickled, and cold-rolled products each increasing by 100 yuan per ton [1] - Benxi Steel has also implemented a similar price adjustment, with cold-rolled, cold hard, galvanized, and other products increasing by 100 yuan per ton, while some products remain stable [2] - Ling Steel's pricing policy for January 2026 includes a 100 yuan per ton increase for hot-rolled and wire rod products, while rebar prices remain unchanged [3][5] Product-Specific Changes - Hot-rolled products: Increased by 100 yuan/ton across multiple companies [1][2][5] - Cold-rolled products: Increased by 100 yuan/ton, with automotive steel also seeing a similar increase [1][2] - Galvanized products: Increased by 100 yuan/ton as per Benxi Steel's announcement [2] - Wire rod: Increased by 100 yuan/ton according to both Ansteel and Ling Steel [1][5] - Rebar: Prices remain stable across the board [2][5]

核心逻辑： 1、本周五大材库存继续环降2.45%至1332.09万吨，创今年春节以来最低，产量环比减少2.74%至806.22万吨，表观需 求续降至839.72万吨为近年来同期最低位，环比降幅达2.83%。具体来看，螺纹钢周产量环降5.56%，库存降幅达 4.81%，表需降幅扩大至6.4%；线材表需降幅收窄至3.94%；热卷表需环比降幅同样收窄至0.92%，其钢厂库存环增 5.14%;中厚板表需环降逾4%;仅冷轧表需环增2.54%，其产量亦增加0.92%。 2、目前钢联产业数据尚可，钢材供需双弱格局不变，其中螺纹钢减产加速，供需关系有所改善，叠加库存持续下降， 螺纹支撑增强。热卷供需数据变化不大，供需宽松，库存高位压力不减。综合来看，上下驱动均不强，预计钢价震荡 走势。 市场展望：低位震荡 华安期货：12月12日钢材低位震荡 重要信息： 2月10日(周三)，美国联邦储备理事会(FED/美联储)宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点至 3.5%-3.75%。美联储预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view on steel products is bullish. The futures market fluctuated and consolidated last week and then declined significantly following raw materials. Hot metal production continued to fall, the output of five finished steel products decreased month - on - month, inventories decreased to varying degrees, and overall demand declined month - on - month, with only cold - rolled products showing a slight increase. Steel mill profits have recovered, mainly due to the decline in coking coal prices on the raw material side. The profits of short - flow steel mills have recovered significantly, mainly benefiting from the decline in scrap steel prices, and their overall production is better than that of long - flow steel mills. Pay attention to the subsequent spot price game and suggest focusing on positions related to steel mill profits [3]. - The month - spread of rebar is bullish. The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar has strengthened slightly month - on - month [3]. - The profitability of steel mills is bullish. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 36.36%, continuing to decline month - on - month [3]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours is 67 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton during off - peak hours is 69 yuan/ton [3]. - The view on finished steel inventories is neutral. The five finished steel products are seasonally destocking [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of December 5, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.323 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,800 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 80.16%, a month - on - month slight decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 53.82%, close to the level of the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 36.36%, a month - on - month slight increase, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [14]. - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 828,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,760 tons. Among them, the rebar output was 189,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,770 tons; the hot - rolled coil output was 314,310 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 2,160 tons; the cold - rolled output increased slightly, higher than the level of the same period last year; the medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, significantly higher than the historical average [25]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 864,170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,930 tons, slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The weekly rebar consumption was 216,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,960 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year; the hot - rolled coil consumption was 314,860 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,360 tons, lower than the level of the same period last year [48][49]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading volume in the north decreased month - on - month but was still slightly higher than the level of the same period last year. The trading volume in the south decreased slightly month - on - month, and the trading volume in East China increased slightly month - on - month but was still significantly lower than the level of the same period last year [64]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories was 541,600 tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, higher than the level of the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.2054 million tons, with a slight month - on - month destocking, significantly higher than the level of the same period [79]. - The rebar warehouse receipts continued to decline but were still higher than the historical average. The hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased slightly month - on - month, lower than the level of the same period last year [117]. 3.4 Balance Sheet The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from June 2025 to June 2026, including data on initial and final steel mill and social inventories, pig iron and crude steel production, imports, exports, total consumption, domestic production - demand differences, surpluses, year - on - year production and consumption changes, and cumulative year - on - year production and consumption changes [118].

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November is 52.50, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October is -2.0 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,197 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Total inventory of five major steel varieties is at the highest level for the same period in four years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar +0.31%, cement price index -0.10%, rubber -1.01%, coke -3.18%, coking coal -1.41%, iron ore -0.13% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.90 percentage points, -0.30 percentage points, and +0.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have increased by 0.78% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit at -1,649 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is 73.63% [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price performance this week includes cold-rolled steel and copper prices unchanged, aluminum +3.36%, with corresponding gross profit changes turning from loss to profit and increasing by 2.20% and 12.47% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 70.92%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.73 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Electrolytic aluminum spot price reaches the highest level since May 2022, while tungsten concentrate price continues to reach the highest level since 2012 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2.70%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 17.59% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,150 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 3.36%, and estimated profit is 4,750 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 12.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 91,600 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 4.71% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 354,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 4.42% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar and iron ore this week is 4.09 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 530 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 40 yuan/ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 170 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 6.25% [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 70 yuan/ton [10] - The London spot gold-silver price ratio is 73 times this week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) comprehensive index this week is 1,114.89 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.62% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate this week is 75.80%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.28% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals (+9.14%) [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio is 37.97% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 (reached in August 2017) [12]

截至9月30日，首钢股份股东户数9.18万，较上期增加9.59%；人均流通股70890股，较上期减少8.75%。 2025年1月-9月，首钢股份实现营业收入772.34亿元，同比减少5.78%；归母净利润9.53亿元，同比增长 368.13%。 分红方面，首钢股份A股上市后累计派现82.21亿元。近三年，累计派现4.05亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，首钢股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第七大流 通股东，持股4631.40万股，相比上期减少729.93万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第九大流通股 东，持股2262.55万股，相比上期减少52.87万股。国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）位居第十大流通股东， 持股1552.95万股，为新进股东。 12月1日，首钢股份盘中上涨2.17%，截至09:49，报4.24元/股，成交3496.10万元，换手率0.11%，总市 值328.81亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出135.50万元，特大单买入249.36万元，占比7.13%，卖出210.00万元，占 比6.01%；大单买入529.22万元，占比15.14%，卖出704. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rebar indicates a trend where, in the absence of macroeconomic stories, fundamentals significantly influence futures prices. The current fundamentals for rebar are relatively strong, with good inventory reduction and stable prices across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - Steel inventory reduction is performing well, contributing to a relatively strong fundamental backdrop, which helps black commodities resist declines during overall commodity downturns. It is expected that steel inventory reduction will continue this week [1]. - National prices for steel are holding firm, with northern regions experiencing specification shortages due to actual production cuts by steel mills. Eastern China is also facing specification shortages, although it is not the highest-priced region nationally [1][4]. - The overall inventory is flowing towards higher-priced areas, indicating a market adjustment based on price levels [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - Steel exports remain robust, with total outbound shipments showing a week-on-week decline but a year-on-year improvement. The total outbound shipments were 305.3 million tons, down 26.46 million tons week-on-week, and 292.04 million tons when excluding two ports in Taiwan, down 34.82 million tons [4]. - The outbound shipments from 28 major foreign ports continue to rise week-on-week, with a narrowing of year-on-year negative values [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main rebar futures contract (2601) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, closing higher but facing significant resistance, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls and an overall weak oscillating pattern [5]. - The coal market, particularly coking coal, is under pressure due to the increasing losses among steel mills, with the profitability ratio of steel mills dropping to 38.96%, continuing a 14-week decline. This has led to reduced procurement of coking coal by steel mills [5]. - The price of rebar in Changzhou is reported at 3160 yuan/ton, while the price for wire rod is 3390 yuan/ton, reflecting the current market conditions [6][7].

Core Points - Shougang Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 2.02% on November 13, reaching 4.54 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 35.208 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price increase of 49.93%, with a 2.71% rise over the last five trading days and an 8.87% increase over the last 20 and 60 days [1] - As of September 30, 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. had 91,800 shareholders, an increase of 9.59% from the previous period, with an average of 70,890 circulating shares per shareholder, down 8.75% [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. achieved an operating revenue of 77.234 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 368.13% to 0.953 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 8.221 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 0.405 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 46.314 million shares, a decrease of 7.2993 million shares from the previous period [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF and Guotai CSI Steel ETF were among the top ten circulating shareholders, with holdings of 22.6255 million shares and 15.5295 million shares, respectively [3] Business Overview - Shougang Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of electrical steel and steel products, with revenue composition as follows: cold-rolled products (41.42%), hot-rolled products (39.28%), and soft magnetic materials (15.10%) [1] - The company operates within the steel industry, specifically in the sub-sector of general steel and sheet products, and is associated with concepts such as solar energy, carbon neutrality, and the Xiong'an New Area [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price decline of 2.22% on November 10, with a current price of 4.41 CNY per share, despite a year-to-date increase of 45.64% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 77.234 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 368.13% to 0.953 billion CNY [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 8.221 billion CNY, with 0.405 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 9.59% to 91,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.75% to 70,890 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 46.314 million shares (a decrease of 7.2993 million shares), and the newly entered Guotai CSI Steel ETF, holding 15.5295 million shares [3] Market Activity - On November 10, the trading volume reached 87.0146 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.26% and a total market capitalization of 34.199 billion CNY [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 145,900 CNY, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] Business Overview - Shougang Co., Ltd. specializes in the production and sales of electrical steel and steel products, with revenue composition from cold-rolled (41.42%), hot-rolled (39.28%), and soft magnetic materials (15.10%) [1] - The company is categorized under the steel industry, specifically in the sub-sector of general steel and sheet products [1]

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Rebar Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Rebar Prices Weakly Operating" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased at a slower rate compared to the previous period, with hot-rolled coils slightly accumulating inventory and other varieties slightly reducing inventory [8] - The profitability rate of steel mills dropped to the lowest point of the year, and the production cut efforts of steel mills increased. In addition, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas became stricter, leading to limited production in some steel mills. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly [8] - The total apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased compared to the previous period. The demand is gradually shifting to the traditional off-season, which has an adverse impact on construction consumption. In addition, the latest single-month steel exports in October showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the impact of overseas trade barriers is gradually emerging, with demand likely to weaken marginally [8] - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has been poor, the steel profit has been continuously narrowing, and the production cut efforts of steel mills have increased. The steel supply has significantly contracted, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream demand has shown a seasonal marginal weakening, with a decrease in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. Coupled with the pressure on external demand exports, both supply and demand have weakened. Currently, the weak industrial supply-demand fundamentals have significantly suppressed rebar prices, and rebar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8] - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3080 [8] Summary by Section 1. Data Overview - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13% (a month-on-month increase of 1.38%), the capacity utilization rate was 87.81% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.80%), the profitability rate was 39.83% (a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.3422 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 11,400 tons). The operating rate of 90 independent electric furnaces was 67.03% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%), the capacity utilization rate was 50.87% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%), and the scrap consumption was 249,900 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 13,100 tons). The total output of the five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 185,500 tons), including 2.0854 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 40,500 tons), 864,700 tons of wire rod (a month-on-month decrease of 33,400 tons), 3.1816 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons), 838,400 tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 21,300 tons), and 1.5973 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 36,300 tons) [10] - **Demand**: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 96,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 3,600 tons), the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 19,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons), the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 136,700 tons), the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.143 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 175,900 tons), the apparent demand for wire rods was 888,300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 102,300 tons), the apparent demand for cold-rolled coils was 853,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 36,900 tons), and the apparent demand for medium and heavy plates was 1.5994 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 43,100 tons) [10] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.0357 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 101,700 tons), including 5.9254 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 99,800 tons), 4.1045 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month increase of 38,600 tons), 1.3069 million tons of wire rod inventory (a month-on-month decrease of 23,800 tons), 1.745 million tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 14,800 tons), and 1.9539 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 2,100 tons) [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 7, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3,034 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 156 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [17] - As of November 7, 2025, the RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at -63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at -15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was -70 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was -211 yuan/ton [33]