Liquidity - The negative difference in the growth rates of M1 and M2 has expanded for three consecutive months, reaching -4.7 percentage points in December 2025 [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is 47.15, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [3] - The correlation between the M1 and M2 growth rate difference and the Shanghai Composite Index is strong, with the difference in December 2025 being -4.7 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 1.60% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early January, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises rebounded to levels seen in mid-October 2025 [3] - Price changes this week include rebar up by 1.22%, cement price index down by 0.94%, rubber down by 1.26%, coke unchanged, coking coal up by 1.23%, and iron ore down by 0.12% [3] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.04 percentage points, -1.92 percentage points, and +3.7 percentage points respectively [3] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and glass price down by 0.73% [4] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1707 yuan/ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% this week [4] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at the median level for the past five years, with a current rate of 73.44%, an increase of 7.55 percentage points [5] - Major commodity price changes this week include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up by 1.19%, and aluminum down by 0.25% [5] - Copper spot prices have reached a historical high, while tungsten concentrate prices have continued to reach new highs since 2012 [5] Price Comparison Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio in London has reached its lowest level since 2013 [6] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.99 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 30 yuan/ton [6] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.03% from last week [6] Export Chain - In December, China's PMI new export orders stood at 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [7] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1209.85 points, up by 1.25% [7] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that starting January 1, 2026, export licensing management will be implemented for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [7] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.57% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals, which increased by 2.81% [8] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 28.96% and 100.00% respectively [8] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82, reached in August 2017 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1. Steel (Rebar) - Inventory: The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly week - on - week. Rebar inventory decreased slightly, while wire rod inventory increased slightly. Under the influence of the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increased [7]. - Supply: Affected by environmental protection in the north, the hot metal output of blast furnace steel mills decreased slightly. However, with the recovery of steel profits, steel mills are willing to resume production, and there is room for an increase in steel supply [7]. - Demand: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products rebounded week - on - week. Although the expectation of a decline in steel demand remains unchanged, the weakening pace is slow, and demand has a certain degree of resilience [7]. - View: Recently, the pace of steel mill resumption has been erratic, and rebar production has been relatively stable. However, with acceptable profitability of steel mills and low inventory levels, there is room for a marginal increase in supply. As the off - season deepens, demand gradually weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. The industrial supply - demand contradiction will gradually accumulate. Currently, the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the steel market exerts pressure, but in the short term, steel prices show a range - bound trend due to macro expectations and cost support [7]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [7]. 2.2. Iron Ore - Supply: In the latest period (January 5 - January 11, 2026), the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume in China increased. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [9]. - Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons. Affected by environmental protection, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased slightly week - on - week [9]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days. The iron ore port inventory continued to reach a new high, and the steel mill inventory increased week - on - week [9]. - View: In terms of the industry, overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the expectation of tightened overseas shipments under the influence of seasonal factors was strong. The arrival volume in China remained at a high level, and the port inventory continued to reach a new high. On the demand side, in the short term, affected by environmental protection, the steel mill hot metal output decreased slightly again, but the steel mill profitability was acceptable, and the hot metal output still increased year - on - year. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement provides certain support for ore prices [9]. - Strategy: The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Steel - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 tons. The operating rate of 94 independent electric furnaces was 72.97%, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 244.24 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 819.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons [10]. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 8.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04 tons; the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 17,850 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4650 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 190.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.44 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 71.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.90 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 91.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.09 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 158.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 tons [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1247.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the rebar inventory was 438.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.80 tons; the wire rod inventory was 91.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.95 tons; the cold - rolled coil inventory was 158.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26 tons; the medium - thick plate inventory was 196.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons [10]. 3.2. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Iron Ore - Shipment Volume: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Brazil was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [11]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [11]. - Inventory: The inventory at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons [11]. - Demand: The port clearance volume at 47 ports was 3.3502 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,400 tons; the daily consumption of steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons [11]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3163 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract was 3315 yuan/ton; the closing price of the I2605 contract was 812 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar's main contract was 137 yuan/ton; the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil's main contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 152 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4. Demand Side - The report mainly presents the apparent consumption volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates), trading volume, procurement volume, cement outbound volume, and concrete production capacity utilization rate through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [57][63][65]. 3.5. Inventory Side - The report mainly shows the inventory of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates) and the inventory - to - sales ratio through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [78][89][98]. 3.6. Supply Side - Steel Production: The report shows the production volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, cold - rolled coils) and the total production volume of the five major steel products through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [109][114][116]. - Steel Mill Operation: The report shows the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnace steel mills and independent electric furnace steel mills through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [123]. - Hot Metal and Scrap: The report shows the hot metal production volume and scrap consumption through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [125]. - Steel Mill Profit: The report shows the steel mill profitability rate and steel profit through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [130]. 3.7. Raw Material - Iron Ore - Global Shipment: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons [136]. - Australia - Brazil Shipment: The total iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [140]. - Arrival Volume: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [153]. - Port Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 75.8221 million tons, an increase of 1.5887 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 61.6914 million tons, an increase of 612,400 tons; the trading ore inventory was 113.5285 million tons, an increase of 1.8404 million tons; the coarse powder inventory was 131.6586 million tons, an increase of 923,600 tons; the lump ore inventory was 21.6713 million tons, an increase of 387,500 tons; the iron concentrate powder inventory was 15.5271 million tons, an increase of 699,400 tons; the pellet inventory was 4.03 million tons, an increase of 432,100 tons [157][161]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days [173].

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

Group 1 - Ansteel's product price policy for February 2026 remains stable with no changes in hot-rolled, pickled, cold-rolled, and automotive steel prices [1] - Ansteel's high-strength wire prices for grades 590MPa, 780MPa, 980MPa, and 1180MPa are also unchanged [1] Group 2 - Benxi Steel's product price policy for February 2026 shows stability in most products, with cold-rolled, galvanized, and rebar prices remaining flat [2] - An increase of 50 yuan/ton is noted for non-oriented silicon steel and wire rod prices [2] - The pricing for special steel remains unchanged [2] Group 3 - Ling Steel's product price policy for February 2026 indicates no changes in hot-rolled, rebar, and special steel prices [3] - An increase of 50 yuan/ton is applied to wire rod and non-oriented silicon steel prices [3] - The pricing for cold-rolled, pickled, and automotive steel remains stable [3] Group 4 - Ling Steel's pricing adjustments for February 2026 include a 50 yuan/ton increase for wire rod and non-oriented silicon steel, while other products remain unchanged [4] - The pricing for hot-rolled, rebar, and special steel is stable [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the steel market followed the positive macro - sentiment, with an increase in hot metal production, a recovery in furnace material prices, and a general price increase in the black market. However, as the sentiment weakened, the near - term inventory started to accumulate, and pressure increased. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater pressure on hot - rolled coils in the near term than on rebar. The overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [7][16]. Summary by Directory 01 Fundamental Changes - After the holiday, following positive macro - sentiment, hot metal rebounded, furnace material prices recovered, the black market as a whole made up for lost ground, steel prices rose with costs, and the basis quickly turned negative, with intraday premiums reaching the warehouse - receipt registration spread. There is an expected increase in rebar warehouse - receipt volume. As sentiment weakened, near - term inventory accumulation started, increasing pressure [7]. - Rebar factory inventories showed a cumulative trend. After - holiday demand fell short of expectations, the apparent demand for wire rods declined rapidly, with a 17% month - on - month decrease. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand were weak. In January, the procurement forecast of construction enterprises surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 18% month - on - month, mainly due to fewer newly launched projects, seasonal shutdowns, and slower construction. Currently, infrastructure projects drive most of the demand, accounting for 90% of the Mysteel sample. Hot - rolled coils mainly accumulated in social inventories, and the inventory in Hangzhou remained high. Cold - rolled production increased by 2.8% month - on - month. The winter storage sentiment was dull this year, with an interest rate of 6 - 8 per thousand, and prices below 3000 yuan were considered attractive [10]. - Last week, the price of steel billets increased by 50 yuan, and the production profit of steel billets recovered. However, the price increase of finished products was weak, and the overall price difference with steel billets shrank. The price differences between hot - and cold - rolled products and between round bars and rebar remained stable [13]. 02 Outlook and Valuation - Assuming the supply of rebar and wire rods decreases by 12% and that of plates increases by 4.2% in the first 20 weeks, and the demand decreases by 7% and increases by 2% respectively, the inventory accumulation of rebar and wire rods is limited, while the inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large. For rebar and wire rods, assuming the demand decreases by 2%, 7%, and 13% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are - 1.8%, - 6.8%, and - 12.7% to maintain seasonal inventory. For plates, assuming the demand increases by 0.4%, 3.8%, and 4.9% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are 0.8%, 4.2%, and 5.4% to maintain seasonal inventory. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater near - term pressure on hot - rolled coils than on rebar [16]. - Based on the previous assumptions for the five major steel products, the post - Spring Festival inventory peak is 15% higher than last year. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the demand ranges from +2.6% to - 4.3%, and the supply ranges from 2.9% to - 3.8%. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the year - on - year change in hot metal production ranges from 2.4% to - 1.8%. According to the neutral assumption, the hot metal production before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the current level, and the required reduction in production is limited. According to the current maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to recover in the future, but the demand needs to maintain a +2.4% level, which poses demand pressure [19]. - In terms of valuation, the on - disk blast furnace profit is at a relatively low level. The price difference between iron and scrap is 80, and the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap is not yet obvious. The on - disk pricing gives a flat - electricity profit of - 10, a valley - electricity profit of 126, and a blast furnace profit of 78, which is moderately high with limited downward space. The price difference of Turkish hot - rolled coils is 22 US dollars, and the export market is still open. The near - term export volume has declined for three consecutive weeks, which requires continuous attention. Overseas steel prices have been flat after the holiday. After the macro - sentiment fades and hot metal production recovers, the inventory starts to accumulate, and there is near - term real - market pressure. Currently, the production reduction plan is slow, and steel mill profits are under pressure. Steel mills still have a pre - holiday restocking demand for iron ore, and the overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shougang Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in stock price and trading volume, with a recent decline of 2.18% and a total market capitalization of 38.31 billion yuan [1] - As of January 9, the stock price of Shougang Co., Ltd. was reported at 4.94 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 138 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.37% [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 0.82%, with a 15.15% increase over the past 20 trading days and a 14.62% increase over the past 60 trading days [1] Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Shougang Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 77.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 368.13% to 0.95 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 8.22 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 0.405 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Shougang Co., Ltd. increased by 9.59% to 91,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.75% to 70,890 shares [2][3]

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index is at 47.15 for December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,533 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly price changes include rebar at -1.20%, cement price index at -0.49%, rubber at +1.00%, coke at -3.40%, coking coal at -0.14%, and iron ore at -0.63% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.01 percentage points, -0.90 percentage points, and -2.3 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.77% week-on-week, while flat glass prices remained unchanged; the gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, and the operating rate for flat glass is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.51%, copper at +5.84%, and aluminum at +1.01%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for some [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategory Prices - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2012 at 460,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.35% week-on-week [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,060.56 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.98% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, with a calculated profit of 4,918 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 6.72% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points this week, an increase of 1.95% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.30%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals at +4.23% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 28.64% and 95.13% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [12]

Supply Side - The steel industry is expected to see an increase in valuation driven by supply-side production regulation and more proactive fiscal policies [1] - By 2025, ongoing regulatory policies will focus on innovative capacity governance, emphasizing quality and structure over mere capacity reduction, marking a shift towards more refined and long-term industry governance [1] - As of November 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China is projected to be 890 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, indicating an increase in industry self-discipline and a tightening supply trend expected to continue into 2026 [1] Demand Side - Steel exports are anticipated to play a crucial role in alleviating domestic supply-demand imbalances, with cumulative steel exports reaching approximately 110 million tons by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.29 million tons [2] - Although the demand for construction steel is still facing a downward trend, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating that demand is nearing its bottom [2] - The demand for steel in manufacturing is expected to remain stable, driven by sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and new infrastructure projects like wind power and 5G, which are increasing consumption of various steel products [2] Cost Side - Global iron ore demand is expected to decline overall, with China's structural upgrades and capacity replacements leading to a gradual decrease in steel demand, while growth in other emerging markets is insufficient to offset this reduction [3] - In the first half of 2025, supply easing is expected to suppress coking coal prices, with price drivers primarily influenced by supply adjustments rather than strong demand growth [3] - The price of scrap steel is projected to remain stable with no significant fluctuations, indicating a low probability of drastic price changes in 2026 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shougang Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and profitability, despite a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. - As of December 19, Shougang's stock price increased by 2.05% to 4.49 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.82 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 48.28%, with a 4.66% rise over the last five trading days [1]. Group 2 - For the period from January to September 2025, Shougang reported operating revenue of 77.23 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 368.13% to 0.95 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 8.22 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 0.40 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 9.59% to 91,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 8.75% to 70,890 shares [2][3].