1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will experience low - level fluctuations in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday bias towards a slightly stronger trend. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, leading the steel price to rebound from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has dropped to a low level, providing support for the steel price, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved, with subsequent seasonal weakening, which will drag down the steel price. Overall, the steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations, so the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "slightly stronger oscillation", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The real - estate policy利好 expectations are fermenting again, and market sentiment has improved, causing the steel price to rebound from a low level. The supply of rebar has dropped to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts is uncertain. The demand for rebar continues to be weak, high - frequency indicators are at a low level, downstream industries have not improved, and the demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and low valuations. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand has continued its seasonal recovery, and steel inventories have continued to decline. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to a new low for the year, and the molten iron output has decreased moderately. The supply of finished products still shows structural differentiation. However, as the peak season is more than half over, there is limited room for incremental demand, and there are expectations of production cuts after the profit margins of steel mills shrink. Currently, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, and the improvement in the weak industrial reality is limited. Nevertheless, the strong performance of coking coal and coke has provided cost support for steel prices, and the macro - environment is favorable. In the short term, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level. - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of the five major steel products has decreased compared to the previous period. Among them, medium - thick plates have slightly increased in inventory, while rebar has seen a significant reduction in inventory, and other products have slightly decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to narrow, the daily average molten iron output has continued to decline slightly, the output of the five major steel products has varied, the output of building materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and the output of plates has slightly decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products has rebounded compared to the previous period. The demand is still in the traditional peak season with obvious seasonal characteristics. However, the investment growth rates in infrastructure and real estate construction have continued to decline, the consumption of building materials remains weak, and plates are also facing the pressure of a marginal weakening in manufacturing demand [6]. - **Strategy**: The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - As of October 24, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3250 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 40 yuan/ton. The RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was - 90 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 204 yuan/ton [15][33]. 3.3. Inventory - As of the week of October 19, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1554.85 tons, a decrease of 27.41 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, rebar inventory was 622.11 tons, a decrease of 18.94 tons; hot - rolled coil inventory was 414.92 tons, a decrease of 4.27 tons; wire rod inventory was 142.31 tons, a decrease of 0.93 tons; cold - rolled inventory was 179.02 tons, a decrease of 4.43 tons; and medium - thick plate inventory was 196.49 tons, an increase of 1.16 tons [8]. 3.4. Supply - As of the week of October 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39%; the profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79%; the daily average molten iron output was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 67.86%, a decrease of 0.99%; the capacity utilization rate was 53.20%, a decrease of 0.9%; the scrap consumption was 252.94 tons, a decrease of 6.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 865.32 tons, an increase of 8.37 tons compared to the previous period [8]. 3.5. Demand - As of the week of October 19, the average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 10.13 tons, an increase of 0.56 tons compared to the previous period; the procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai was 19,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 226.01 tons, an increase of 6.26 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 326.73 tons, an increase of 11.18 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 89.25 tons, an increase of 4.83 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 90.5 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 160.24 tons, a decrease of 5.19 tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coil needs to be verified, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,035 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton and a daily growth rate of 0.73%. The trading volume was 211,204 lots, the position was 541,771 lots, and the position change was -41,097 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,395 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 16 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.47%. The trading volume was 107,925 lots, the position was 364,110 lots, and the position change was -26,002 lots [2] - **Spot Price**: In Shanghai, the spot price of rebar was 3,220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and that of hot-rolled coil was 3,400 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton). In Hangzhou, the rebar price was 3,250 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and the hot-rolled coil price was 3,420 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 was 185 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton), and that of HC2510 was 5 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton). The spread of RB2510 - RB2601 was -92 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton), and that of HC2510 - HC2601 was 31 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Production and Inventory Data (September 11)**: Rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 3.41 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 13.86 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.02 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.91 tons [3] - **Steel Export and Import Data (August 2025)**: China exported 951.0 tons of steel in August, 32.6 tons less than the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7,749.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. In August, China imported 50.0 tons of steel, 4.8 tons more than the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 10.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of steel was 397.7 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4]

Group 1 - Zhongtian Steel announced that the prices for rebar, wire rod, and coiled rebar remained stable in early September, with rebar priced at 3400 CNY/ton and wire rod/coiled rebar at 3600 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 2, the spot price for rebar was reported at 3170 CNY/ton for Yonggang brand and 3180 CNY/ton for HRB400 brand in Hangzhou [1] - On the futures market, the main contract for rebar closed at 3117.00 CNY/ton on September 2, with a slight decline of 0.16% [1] Group 2 - As of September 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 214,621 tons of rebar futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 3,683 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The number of operational blast furnaces among 23 sample steel companies was reported at 89, with all steel mills conducting planned maintenance and an additional 16 furnaces undergoing repairs [3] Group 3 - According to Hualian Futures research, there has been a slight reduction in production from blast furnace steel mills, leading to a marginal decrease in molten iron supply, while rebar production has seen a slight increase [4] - The seasonal rise in steel inventory continues, with mixed expectations regarding demand during peak seasons, resulting in market pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [4] - The short-term market is expected to lack significant drivers, with steel prices likely to maintain low-level fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The supply and demand of rebar are running stably. The weekly output has increased slightly, and the supply is running stably at a high level. The weekly apparent demand has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The demand is weakly stable. The contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is easy to accumulate, and steel prices will still be under pressure. The steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and the definitions of different trends [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are running stably. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weakly stable. The contradiction in the fundamentals is easy to accumulate, and steel prices are under pressure. The low inventory brings price elasticity. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel futures price oscillates and rebounds with the warming of the commodity market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs stably, with the output decreasing month - on - month and demand weakening significantly under the influence of holidays. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, leading to an oscillating rebound in steel futures prices. The supply of rebar has contracted with a month - on - month decrease in output, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors and is expected to continue the seasonal decline. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. With low inventory and weak market sentiment, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]