Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, short - fiber, bottle - chip, LPG, propylene, fuel - oil, low - sulfur fuel - oil: Bullish trend [2][73][74] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish but with marginal valuation pressure [2] - LLDPE, PP, glass, soda: Bearish trend [2] - Caustic soda, urea, benzene - ethylene, container shipping index (European line), PVC, offset printing paper, pure benzene: Neutral trend [2] Core Views - The prices of most energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as capital inflows, geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. For some products, capital plays a significant role in driving up prices, while for others, geopolitical risks and supply - demand imbalances are the main influencing factors [10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. 3 - 5 reverse spreads and 5 - 9 positive spreads are recommended. The current price increase is mainly driven by capital rather than fundamentals. The domestic and Asian device operating rates have slightly decreased, and it is in a state of inventory accumulation [10] - **PTA**: Before the festival, the unilateral trend is bullish. A 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. High processing fees may lead to the resumption of production of PTA devices. It is also in a state of inventory accumulation [11] - **MEG**: The trend remains bullish, and a 5 - 9 positive spread is recommended. The device operating rate has slightly decreased, and the supply will marginally decline in the future. Although it is in an inventory - accumulation pattern, the overall trend is still bullish due to short - covering and capital inflows [12][13] Synthetic Rubber - It runs bullishly, but attention should be paid to marginal valuation pressure. The short - term strength is due to capital inflows and cost - push from butadiene. However, some valuation indicators are approaching their boundaries [14][16] LLDPE - The risk preference continues to spread, and the basis weakens significantly. Although the raw - material oil price is strong, the ethylene monomer link weakens. The supply pressure in the medium - term remains due to high production capacity and weakening demand [17][18] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost end is strong, but the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [20][21] Caustic Soda - It fluctuates at a low level. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to reduce inventory, and the price continues to decline. The long - term contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [23][25] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The market demand is coming to an end, the rigid demand shrinks rapidly, and the inventory is under pressure. Some winter - storage and inventory - transfer policies may be introduced next month [28][29] Methanol - It fluctuates with support. The short - term is expected to be strong due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory improvement expectations. However, the over - speculation may be restricted by MTO plant maintenance and inventory de - stocking [32][35] Urea - The oscillation center moves up. Driven by the warm sentiment in the chemical sector, neutral fundamentals, and strong spring - plowing expectations, the price center slowly rises. The upper and lower bounds of the valuation are also gradually moving up [37][39] Benzene - Ethylene - It oscillates bullishly. The short - term market sentiment is high, but downstream profits are squeezed, and the inventory is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern [40][41] Soda - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda market is weakly stable, with flexible price transactions. The supply is adjusted at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [43][45] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand relationships [48] - **Propylene**: The trend is bullish, but the upward momentum slows down [2] PVC - It oscillates within a range. The short - term is supported by the bullish sentiment of chemical products, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change. The short - term futures contract faces high - operation and weak - demand situations [56][57] Fuel - Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel - Oil - **Fuel - oil**: It rises strongly, and the volatility continues to increase [59] - **Low - sulfur fuel - oil**: It continues the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has fallen to a low point again [59] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillatory market. The 04 short positions should be gradually reduced and observed, and the 10 short positions can be held as appropriate [61] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - **Short - fiber**: The short - term trend is bullish. The futures price has risen significantly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards [73][74] - **Bottle - chip**: The short - term trend is bullish. The upstream raw - material futures continue to rise strongly, and the factory has continuously raised the quotation [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [76][77][79] Pure Benzene - It oscillates bullishly. The inventory has decreased, and the spot price has risen [80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly view on urea is that the oscillation center will move upward. In the short - term, the sentiment in the chemical sector is positive, combined with the neutral fundamental situation of urea and the strong expectation for the spring plowing season, the price center will gradually move up. The demand - side driving force is slightly on the strong side, and whether the driving force can further strengthen depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation - The report shows the trends of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, BoDa, JinKai, DongPing), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts. It also presents the domestic and international spot prices of urea, including the ex - factory prices and market prices of small - particle urea in different regions in China, and the FOB and CFR prices of large - particle urea in different international regions [5][9][16][20]. 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons; in 2025, it was 6,640,000 tons; and in 2026, it is expected to be 6,510,000 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Multiple urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to early 2026, with the reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost - based) maintenance [26]. 3.2.3 Production - The daily production of urea remained at a high level when the production profit was at the break - even point [27]. 3.2.4 Cost - The raw material prices stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories increased. The report also provided cost calculations for different production processes such as fixed - bed and gas - flow bed in the Shanxi region [30]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea was currently in a profitable state [35]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, the export policy tightened. The report listed the monthly net import (export) data from 2018 to 2025 (E) [40]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has a seasonal strengthening trend. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. The report also shows the seasonal demand for different crops in different regions [46][49]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report presents the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [53][54]. - **Melamine**: It shows the production profit, market price, production volume, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [58][59]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, while panel exports have resilience [60]. 3.4 Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.07% month - on - month decrease. As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [2][65]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the trends of international urea prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [69][70][71][72].