2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | 合成橡胶:偏强运行，但关注边际估值压力 | 5 | | LLDPE：风偏继续外溢，基差走弱明显 | 7 | | PP：排产低位维持，利润暂修复有限 | 8 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 11 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 13 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 15 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 16 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 17 | | 丙烯：趋势偏强，但涨势放缓 | 17 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 20 | | 燃料油：强势上涨，波动持续上升 | 21 | | 低硫燃料油：延续上行趋势，外盘现货高低硫价差再次跌入低点 | 21 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市；04空单逐步减仓观望、10空单酌情持有 | 22 | | 短纤：短期趋势偏强20260126 | 25 | | 瓶片：短期趋势偏强20260 ...

Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending December 27, 2025, ranged from 93,470 to 97,740 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week [2][10] - SMM's premium/discount quotes ranged from -340 to -195 yuan/ton, maintaining a discount throughout the week [2][10] - LME inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 157,000 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.59 million tons to 111,700 tons [2][10] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) rose by 2.52 million tons to 193,600 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 75,400 tons [2][10] - Comex inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 482,900 tons [2][10] Macroeconomic Insights - In the week ending December 27, 2025, U.S. core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded [3][11] - The offshore RMB broke the "7" mark against the USD for the first time in 15 months [3][11] - The risk of military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated due to missile issues [3][11] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that they are nearing their inflation target and may continue to raise interest rates [3][11] Mining Sector - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported -44.9 USD/dry ton, down by 1.25 USD from the previous period [3][12] - Market trading was quiet due to the Christmas holiday, with foreign suppliers on break [3][12] - Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply of copper concentrate to China, with remaining supplies to be circulated through traders [3][12] - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine union plans to strike on December 29 if labor negotiations fail, with a projected copper output of 22,000 tons in 2024 [3][12] Smelting and Import Dynamics - The average transaction price for Yangshan copper premium was 53.4 USD/ton, up 4.4 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The average price for warehouse receipts was 53.6 USD/ton, up 10.6 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The import loss was approximately 1,400 yuan/ton as of December 24, with mainstream warehouse and bill prices ranging from 40 to 50 USD/ton [4][13] Scrap Copper Market - Copper prices surged, with Shanghai copper reaching a peak of 99,730 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 6,000 yuan [5][14] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed before rebounding to 3,944 yuan/ton, showing weak follow-through in scrap copper prices [5][14] - Market liquidity is tight due to sellers holding back, and downstream purchasing remains cautious [5][14] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points [6][15] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to fewer new orders and a continued weak market [6][15] - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points [6][15] Strategic Outlook - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations for downstream enterprises to focus on demand-based hedging [7][16] - If prices fall between 94,000 and 95,000 yuan/ton, it is suggested to increase buying hedging [7][16]

Core Insights - The platinum group metals (PGMs), including platinum and palladium, have experienced a significant price surge, with both futures and spot prices reaching historical highs, prompting the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to implement trading limits to cool market enthusiasm [1][3][7] Price Surge in Futures Market - On December 18, the domestic PGM market saw a comprehensive explosion, with platinum futures (PT2606) peaking at 549.9 yuan/gram and closing at 542.6 yuan/gram, marking a daily increase of 5.32%. Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 476.6 yuan/gram, up 6.99%, with multiple contracts showing strong closing performance [3] - Internationally, platinum prices reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114%, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, reflecting an approximate 85% rise, both achieving significant new highs [3] - The jewelry market followed suit, with prices for platinum jewelry surpassing 800 yuan/gram, reaching 815 yuan/gram, and the Shenzhen market seeing platinum jewelry prices rise to around 470 yuan/gram, a 56% increase from approximately 300 yuan/gram earlier in the year [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in PGM prices is attributed to a combination of fundamental, policy, and financial factors, with a tight supply being the core driver. South Africa, the largest platinum supplier, is facing production challenges due to extreme weather, power shortages, and aging mines, leading to a projected 13% year-on-year decline in PGM output by Q1 2025 [5] - The current one-month leasing rate for platinum remains above 10%, indicating strong holder reluctance to sell and a scarcity of deliverable spot metal, which has created a liquidity crisis that has transmitted to the futures market, resulting in strong buying pressure [5] - Demand remains robust, particularly in the automotive catalyst sector, with the hydrogen energy industry further enhancing platinum's catalytic value. Additionally, the listing of platinum and palladium futures options has stimulated investment and hedging demand [5] Market Regulation and Diverging Opinions - As the market experiences significant price increases, opinions on the future performance of PGMs have diverged. Some analysts believe the current price surge may be excessive and could face correction pressure next year, while others argue that structural supply shortages will support higher price levels in the long term [7] - To mitigate excessive market volatility, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading limits on platinum and palladium futures contracts, effective December 23, 2025, restricting daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 lots [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices, which has increased by 110% to reach a historical high, has shifted market perception, highlighting silver's industrial demand and its unique advantages over gold [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver has historically been viewed as a "low-cost alternative" to gold, overshadowing its intrinsic industrial value [3][9]. - The recent price increase is attributed to a structural supply-demand imbalance, with global silver markets experiencing a tight balance for years [12][14]. - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, is rapidly increasing, while supply growth remains slow [14][16]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing silver's value, as evidenced by significant net inflows into silver ETFs, marking the highest weekly inflow since July [6][8]. - The market is witnessing a shift in perception, moving away from viewing silver merely as a byproduct of gold to recognizing its standalone value driven by industrial demand [19][25]. - Analysts predict that silver prices could rise to $62 per ounce in the next three months, supported by interest rate cuts and investment demand [22]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing global transition to renewable energy is expected to sustain long-term demand for silver, distinguishing it from other precious metals [23][28]. - The volatility of the silver market is greater than that of gold, which poses risks for short-term investors, but the underlying industrial demand suggests a robust long-term growth potential [26][30]. - Investors are advised to focus on the structural changes in supply and demand rather than short-term price fluctuations to capitalize on silver's long-term value [28][30].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - This year, silver and gold have seen significant price increases, with silver LOF rising over 127%, gold stock ETFs increasing over 80%, and both gold ETFs and Shanghai gold ETFs up over 50% [1] - The current silver market surge is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic shifts, industrial demand, supply-demand gaps, capital inflows, and value reassessment, all working in concert [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar and reduced holding costs, directly igniting precious metal pricing [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global exchange inventories are critically low, sufficient for only 1.2 months, marking a ten-year low and increasing demand for physical silver [2] - The ETF market has seen a significant increase in holdings, with an addition of 500 tons over six months, while the market capitalization of silver is only one-tenth that of gold, leading to amplified price volatility due to short covering [3] Group 3: Valuation and Future Projections - Gold prices have reached new highs, with the gold-silver ratio decreasing from over 100 in April to below 70, indicating that silver has outperformed gold by over 30% during this period [4] - Analysts predict that by December 10, 2025, silver prices may reach new historical highs, with Comex silver potentially breaking the $60 per ounce mark [4] - The current gold market is experiencing a correction after a significant rise, with historical patterns suggesting that after a 10% correction, gold typically stabilizes at new highs within approximately three months [5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has once again become a market focus, with significant price increases driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic shifts, industrial demand, supply shortages, capital inflows, and value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Price Performance - As of December 12, COMEX silver is priced at $64.25 [2]. - Year-to-date, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen price increases exceeding 110% [3]. Group 2: Key Drivers - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have weakened the dollar and reduced holding costs, directly igniting precious metal pricing [5]. - **Industrial Demand**: Silver consumption in photovoltaic applications accounts for 55%, while demand from AI servers has increased by 30%, and electric vehicles are consuming several times more silver [6]. - **Supply-Demand Gap**: Global exchange inventories are at a ten-year low, sufficient for only 1.2 months of consumption, leading to heightened demand for silver [7]. - **Capital Inflows**: ETFs have increased their holdings by 500 tons over six months, with silver's market capitalization being only one-tenth that of gold, resulting in amplified volatility due to short covering [8]. - **Value Reassessment**: The gold price has reached new highs, the gold-silver ratio is returning to normal, and demand from Indian festivals is quickly realizing the potential for price increases [9]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The interplay of monetary easing, industrial revolution, mine production cuts, ETF-driven supply constraints, and emotional responses to the gold-silver ratio has led to a doubling of silver prices this year [9].

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its strong performance in the last week of August, with major indices reaching new highs and trading volume increasing significantly [2] - From August 25 to August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks rising and 95 stocks gaining over 20% [2][3] Technology Sector - The technology sector was a significant driving force behind the market's performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index being more tech-oriented compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is heavily weighted towards banking [3] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [3] Stock Competition - A notable competition occurred between Cambrian (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) for the title of "king of stocks," with Cambrian briefly taking the lead before fluctuating in position [4] Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the short-term outlook for the A-share market, citing multiple favorable policies and a shift of household savings into the capital market as key factors [6] - The overall profit growth for A-share listed companies is expected to turn positive by 2025, ending a four-year decline, particularly in the technology innovation sector [6] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals [6][7] Liquidity and Policy Support - The liquidity factors are expected to drive the market in the short term, with fiscal and monetary policies continuing to support the economy and mitigate risks [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show strong momentum, with indices reaching new highs and significant trading volume, driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts [3][7]. Market Performance - From August 25 to August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks increasing in value, and 95 stocks seeing gains over 20% [3][4]. - Technology stocks have been a major driving force behind the market's performance, with significant differences in sector composition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [5][6]. Notable Stocks - Key technology stocks include Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [6]. - The competition for the "king of stocks" between Cambrian (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has attracted market attention, with Cambrian briefly taking the lead [6]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share market to maintain a positive outlook, supported by government policies aimed at consolidating economic recovery and a shift of household savings into capital markets [8][9]. - The overall profit growth for A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive in 2025, ending a four-year decline, particularly in the technology innovation sector [8]. - Short-term market movements are anticipated to be characterized by steady upward trends, with a focus on sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals [8][10]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on sectors likely to experience a "rotation and rebound," including mechanical equipment, power equipment, and consumer stocks [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance in the last week of August, with major indices reaching new highs and trading volume increasing significantly [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks gaining and 95 stocks rising over 20% [1] - The driving force behind this market rally is attributed to a combination of capital inflow and industry catalysts, with capital pushing the market up and industry factors determining strong sectors [1] Group 2 - Technology stocks were a significant support for the market, with the Shenzhen Component Index being more tech-oriented compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is heavily weighted towards banks [2] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [2] - The competition for the "king of stocks" between Cambricon (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) drew attention, with Cambricon briefly taking the lead before closing higher than Kweichow Moutai [3] Group 3 - Analysts remain optimistic about the short-term outlook for A-shares, citing supportive policies from the government and the central bank, including a 6 trillion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity [4] - There is an expectation for a shift from liquidity-driven market movements to fundamentals as the economy improves, with a projected recovery in overall earnings growth for A-share companies by 2025 [5] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals, with a focus on "rotation and catch-up" strategies in the market [6]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to reach new highs this week, with daily average trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, reflecting strong market sentiment [2][10] - The bond market experienced a decline, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, indicating a potential negative return for pure bond funds [2][29] - Gold prices remain under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and positive geopolitical developments, leading to reduced safe-haven demand [3][36] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market's rise is primarily driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts, with significant structural opportunities present [5][10] - Major indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 300 saw substantial weekly gains, with the STAR 50 index increasing over 10% [10][11] - The trading volume for the two markets increased by 22.62% week-on-week, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 seeing higher trading volume proportions [12][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies as the market dynamics shift [6][29] - The interbank funding environment has tightened, while exchange funding has loosened, contributing to the overall weakness in the bond market [29][30] Commodity Market Analysis - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.44% this week, with declines in various sectors including black and non-ferrous commodities [36][38] - Gold prices decreased by 0.23%, while crude oil prices increased by 0.81%, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [38] Industry Performance - In the industry sector, telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with weekly gains of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [19][21] - The real estate and coal sectors lagged behind, reflecting a divergence in sector performance [19][21]