年末贵金属市场再迎"爆点"，铂金、钯金组成的"铂族兄弟"强势领跑，期现价格同步刷新历史新高，首饰市场价格水涨船高，广州期货交易所随即出台交 易限额措施，为市场热度降温。 期现市场同步爆发 价格涨幅震撼市场 12月18日，国内铂族金属市场迎来全面爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约（PT2606）全天单边上行，盘中最高触及549.9元/克，收盘报542.6元/克，单日涨幅 达5.32%；钯期货表现更为强劲，主力合约（PD2606）报收476.6元/克，涨幅6.99%，钯2608、2610等多个合约尾盘强势封板，两大品种成交量同步显著放 大。 国际市场上，铂族金属同样涨势凌厉。NYMEX铂金最高价触及1995.6美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅高达114%，仅次于白银；NYMEX钯金最高价攀升至1787 美元/盎司，年内涨幅约85%，双双创下阶段性新高。 首饰市场随即跟进，六福珠宝等品牌官网显示，足铂999价格已突破800元/克大关，达到每克815元；作为国内珠宝批发市场风向标，深圳水贝市场的铂金 饰品克价涨至470元左右，较今年6月的300元/克左右涨幅超56%。数据显示，现货铂金年内累计涨幅接近90%，大幅超越同期黄金约65% ...

究竟是什么力量撑起了白银的翻倍涨幅？是供需缺口的集中爆发，还是资金与政策的双重助推？面对这 样的历史级行情，普通投资者该跟风入场，还是保持观望？ 其实内行人早已点明背后真相，这波上涨绝非偶然，背后藏着关乎趋势的关键逻辑。 打破"影子宿命" 长期以来，市场对白银的解读始终存在致命偏见：将其视为黄金的"低配版替代品"，仅关注其金融避险 属性，却选择性忽视其工业刚需品的核心价值。 这种片面认知，令白银真实价值被黄金光环掩盖许久。 事实上，白银的双重属性远比黄金更具成长张力，既能在宏观经济动荡时承接避险资金，又能深度绑定 全球产业升级浪潮，这是黄金难以比拟的独特优势。 最近贵金属市场彻底被白银点燃！小李看着伦敦现货白银狂涨110%创下历史新高，涨幅直接碾压黄 金，身边不少朋友都在疯狂讨论这波行情。 曾经的"黄金跟班"突然逆袭封神，从被忽视的配角变成人人追捧的香饽饽，这样的暴涨实在让人始料未 及。 小李始终认为，资产定价始终离不开市场认知的迭代，白银此番逆袭的底层逻辑，首先是一场认知革 命。 早在银价暴涨之前，市场已有蛛丝马迹显现：截至12月4日的四个交易日，白银ETF资金净流入规模创 下7月以来单周最高。 这类资金主 ...

今年黄金、白银火热，白银LOF涨超127%,黄金股ETF涨超80%，黄金ETF、上海金ETF涨超50%。 业内认为，本轮白银超级行情=宏观转向×工业爆发×供需缺口×资金推动×价值重估，五力同步共振。 美联储降息：美元走弱+持有成本降，贵金属定价锚直接点火。 工业井喷：光伏55%消费占比、AI服务器用银+30%、新能源车数倍耗银，三条赛道同步踩满油门。 库存告急：全球交易所库存只够1.2个月，十年低位，抢货情绪升温。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：钟离 资金逼空：ETF半年增仓500吨，白银市值仅黄金1/10，空头平仓把波动放大成火箭。 估值修复：金价先行创新高，金银比回归+印度节日买盘，补涨空间快速兑现。 国投期货认为，2025年12月10日，白银期现货价格再创历史新高，Comex白银再破60美元每盎司大关。 白银本轮价格的异动为明显的独立行情，其价格驱动从上半年的跟随金价，逐步切换到下半年的金银比 驱动，金银比从4月最高的100以上目前已经跌破70，也就是说，同期白银相对于黄金的超额涨幅已经超 过30%。 此前，高盛提示风险，其分析师在报告中指出，白银市场流动性较差且规模约为黄金市 ...

白银又一次成为市场焦点。 3. 库存告急： 全球交易所库存只够1.2个月，十年低位，抢货情绪升温。 4. 资金逼空： ETF半年增仓500吨，白银市值仅黄金1/10，空头平仓把波动放大成火箭。 截至北京时间12月12日发稿，COMEX白银报64.25美元。 今年以来，白银"伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货年内涨幅均超110%"。 本轮超级行情=宏观转向×工业爆发×供需缺口×资金推动×价值重估，五力同步共振。 1. 美联储降息： 美元走弱+持有成本降，贵金属定价锚直接点火。 2. 工业井喷： 光伏55%消费占比、AI服务器用银+30%、新能源车数倍耗银，三条赛道同步踩满油门。 5. 估值修复： 金价先行创新高，金银比回归+印度节日买盘，补涨空间快速兑现。 总结： 货币宽松给估值、工业革命给需求、矿山减产给缺口、ETF逼空供给杠杆、金银比给情绪——五力共振，银价 年内翻倍。 （图片来自AI） | 核心因素 | 关键逻辑 | 影响程度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 货币政策 | 美联储降息,美元走弱,持有成本降低 | ななななな | | 工业需求 | 光伏、AI、新能源车爆发式增长 | ななななな ...

Market Performance - The A-share market continued its strong performance in the last week of August, with major indices reaching new highs and trading volume increasing significantly [2] - From August 25 to August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks rising and 95 stocks gaining over 20% [2][3] Technology Sector - The technology sector was a significant driving force behind the market's performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index being more tech-oriented compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is heavily weighted towards banking [3] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [3] Stock Competition - A notable competition occurred between Cambrian (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) for the title of "king of stocks," with Cambrian briefly taking the lead before fluctuating in position [4] Market Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the short-term outlook for the A-share market, citing multiple favorable policies and a shift of household savings into the capital market as key factors [6] - The overall profit growth for A-share listed companies is expected to turn positive by 2025, ending a four-year decline, particularly in the technology innovation sector [6] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals [6][7] Liquidity and Policy Support - The liquidity factors are expected to drive the market in the short term, with fiscal and monetary policies continuing to support the economy and mitigate risks [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and emerging positive factors such as a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show strong momentum, with indices reaching new highs and significant trading volume, driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts [3][7]. Market Performance - From August 25 to August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks increasing in value, and 95 stocks seeing gains over 20% [3][4]. - Technology stocks have been a major driving force behind the market's performance, with significant differences in sector composition between the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [5][6]. Notable Stocks - Key technology stocks include Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [6]. - The competition for the "king of stocks" between Cambrian (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) has attracted market attention, with Cambrian briefly taking the lead [6]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts expect the A-share market to maintain a positive outlook, supported by government policies aimed at consolidating economic recovery and a shift of household savings into capital markets [8][9]. - The overall profit growth for A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive in 2025, ending a four-year decline, particularly in the technology innovation sector [8]. - Short-term market movements are anticipated to be characterized by steady upward trends, with a focus on sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals [8][10]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on sectors likely to experience a "rotation and rebound," including mechanical equipment, power equipment, and consumer stocks [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance in the last week of August, with major indices reaching new highs and trading volume increasing significantly [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 0.84%, 4.36%, 7.74%, and 4.13% respectively, with 1,752 stocks gaining and 95 stocks rising over 20% [1] - The driving force behind this market rally is attributed to a combination of capital inflow and industry catalysts, with capital pushing the market up and industry factors determining strong sectors [1] Group 2 - Technology stocks were a significant support for the market, with the Shenzhen Component Index being more tech-oriented compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which is heavily weighted towards banks [2] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaipu Cloud (688228.SH) with a 133.74% increase, followed by Rongyi Precision (873223.BJ), Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ), and Tianpu Co. (605255.SH), all exceeding 60% gains [2] - The competition for the "king of stocks" between Cambricon (688256.SH) and Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) drew attention, with Cambricon briefly taking the lead before closing higher than Kweichow Moutai [3] Group 3 - Analysts remain optimistic about the short-term outlook for A-shares, citing supportive policies from the government and the central bank, including a 6 trillion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity [4] - There is an expectation for a shift from liquidity-driven market movements to fundamentals as the economy improves, with a projected recovery in overall earnings growth for A-share companies by 2025 [5] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as batteries, semiconductors, communication equipment, and energy metals, with a focus on "rotation and catch-up" strategies in the market [6]

Market Overview - A-shares continue to reach new highs this week, with daily average trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, reflecting strong market sentiment [2][10] - The bond market experienced a decline, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, indicating a potential negative return for pure bond funds [2][29] - Gold prices remain under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and positive geopolitical developments, leading to reduced safe-haven demand [3][36] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market's rise is primarily driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts, with significant structural opportunities present [5][10] - Major indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 300 saw substantial weekly gains, with the STAR 50 index increasing over 10% [10][11] - The trading volume for the two markets increased by 22.62% week-on-week, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 seeing higher trading volume proportions [12][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies as the market dynamics shift [6][29] - The interbank funding environment has tightened, while exchange funding has loosened, contributing to the overall weakness in the bond market [29][30] Commodity Market Analysis - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.44% this week, with declines in various sectors including black and non-ferrous commodities [36][38] - Gold prices decreased by 0.23%, while crude oil prices increased by 0.81%, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [38] Industry Performance - In the industry sector, telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with weekly gains of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [19][21] - The real estate and coal sectors lagged behind, reflecting a divergence in sector performance [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The ChiNext index experienced a significant pullback of 1.66%, marking the largest single-day decline since July of this year, attributed to profit-taking after a prolonged upward trend and lack of new policy measures from recent meetings [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent pullback is primarily due to a short-term adjustment after a strong rally, with 19 out of the last 29 trading days showing gains, leading to profit-taking by investors [3]. - The absence of new stimulus measures from a recent important meeting has dampened market expectations, as the language used in the meeting shifted from concerns about external shocks to a focus on positive economic indicators [3]. - Ongoing trade tensions, particularly the lack of significant outcomes from the latest US-China trade talks and the impending implementation of high tariffs, are also contributing to market uncertainty [3]. Future Outlook for ChiNext - The outlook for the ChiNext remains optimistic, supported by ongoing domestic policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic growth and reducing financing costs [4]. - The fundamentals of key sectors within the ChiNext, such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, are showing improvement, with expected net profit growth of 39% by 2025 [5][7]. - The ChiNext index is projected to have a revenue growth rate of 26% and a net profit growth rate of 39% by 2025, outperforming other major indices [7][10]. Valuation Perspective - The current valuation of the ChiNext index is relatively low, with its valuation percentile below 25% compared to other indices, suggesting potential for future gains [11]. - Historical performance indicates that the ChiNext has previously experienced substantial gains during bull markets, with past increases exceeding 100% in previous cycles, indicating room for further growth in the current market [12].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching its highest point since October 2024, driven by policy support, structural changes in industries, and ample liquidity in the market [1][5][14]. Market Performance - As of July 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62% to 3581.86 points, with trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day's 1.73 trillion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, there have only been three trading days with A-share transaction amounts below 1 trillion yuan, and since July, daily trading has consistently exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The margin trading balance reached a three-month high of 1.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.25% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with an increase over 12 consecutive trading days [1]. Investor Sentiment - Optimism is spreading among investors, with some institutions declaring the start of a new bull market, predicting that the index may surpass 3700 points in the latter half of the year [1][14]. - However, some market participants caution that the 3500-point level is not a definitive indicator of a bull market, citing global economic pressures and external factors that could disrupt the A-share market [2][13]. Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of improvement, with June's new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan and new social financing at 4.2 trillion yuan, both exceeding market expectations [6]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, supporting the annual growth target [7]. Sector Performance - There is a noticeable divergence in sector performance, with water conservancy and hydropower sectors showing high growth due to government funding, while previously strong sectors like banking and brokerage are weakening [9][10]. - The technology sector, particularly in areas like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, continues to perform well, with significant increases in relevant indices [9]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing structural opportunities, driven by ongoing policy support and economic recovery [14][15]. - Investors are advised to remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on balanced portfolio management and being aware of potential market corrections due to overheating [10][15].