来源：新鲜速递 白银价格冲破57美元刷新历史峰值，年内90%的惊人涨幅背后，是美联储降息预期点燃的金融属性与光 伏产业激增的工业需求形成的史诗级共振，但库存见底引发的轧空风险正将市场推向疯狂边缘。 ⚡️ 价格突破与市场表现 历史性飙升 2025年11月28日，纽约COMEX白银期货暴涨6.06%至57.085美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银突破56美元/盎 司，双双刷新历史纪录；国内沪银期货同步冲高至13239元/千克。年内白银累计涨幅超90%，远超黄金 56%的涨幅，金银比缩窄至76:1。 与黄金背离的独立行情 白银本轮上涨呈现"急涨抗跌"特性，即便黄金短期回调，白银仍逆势冲高。其波动率超黄金1.5倍，资 金杠杆效应显著。 核心驱动因素 金融属性爆发 美联储降息预期：市场对12月降息概率预期飙升至89%，美元走弱推升零息资产吸引力。 避险需求激增：中东冲突、美国政府停摆及债务担忧（美债突破37万亿美元）加速资金涌入。 工业需求刚性增长 光伏与新能源：2025年全球光伏装机量超655GW，单GW耗银8-10吨，仅此领域年需求超5000吨；新能 源汽车用银量为燃油车7倍，工业需求占比升至58%。 供应短缺：全球白银连续 ...

Core Points - The agreement between the US and Australia involves an investment of $8.5 billion focused on critical minerals and rare earths, with both countries committing over $1 billion each for initial projects within the next six months [3][5] - The agreement aims to enhance economic and defense cooperation between the two nations, with the US Department of Defense funding a modern smelting plant in Western Australia to produce 100 tons of gallium annually [3][5] - Australia, as the fourth-largest rare earth resource country, seeks to leverage its resources to deepen ties with the US, especially as it becomes the only country outside China capable of producing heavy rare earth elements [5][7] Strategic Background - The agreement is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, as 87% of the supply chains for over 1,000 US weapon systems depend on Chinese suppliers [7] - The acceleration of this agreement was triggered by China's export controls on gallium and germanium in 2024, highlighting the urgency of diversifying supply sources [7] Reality Challenges - China dominates the rare earth industry not only in mining but also in refining, holding 92% of the global rare earth refining capacity as of 2023 [9] - The largest US rare earth company, MP Materials, faces challenges as 80% of its revenue comes from exports to China, which are hindered by a 125% retaliatory tariff [9] - Cost issues are significant, with the average selling price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide from the Mountain Pass mine in the US being 18% lower than production costs, leading to a halt in expansion plans for the only large-scale separation plant in North America [11] Future Outlook - The US-Australia agreement is set against a market largely controlled by China, which has held the top position in rare earth patent applications for 14 consecutive years, accounting for 50% of the global total [12] - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries by CATL, could disrupt the current resource dependency landscape, as sodium battery costs are only one-tenth of lithium [12] - The success of the US-Australia critical minerals agreement will depend on resolving radioactive waste treatment technology for heavy rare earth separation within three years and implementing subsidy mechanisms to offset China's price advantages [15]