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暂时获利回吐还是反转?金银期货转跌,现货白银历史性涨破50美元后回落
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-09 21:54
最近屡创新高的金银本周四经历戏剧性的盘中逆转。 外盘金银期货双双在创出盘中历史新高和几十年来新高后转跌,现货白银冲高回落,先是历史性地涨破50美元关口,而后回吐多数涨幅。期金和现货黄金盘 中均曾转涨跌幅,反映市场对贵金属长期牛市前景依然乐观。 周四美股盘前连续第四日创盘中最高纪录时,COMEX 12月黄金期货接近4078美元,日内涨近0.2%,现货黄金逼近4058美元,日内涨近0.4%,美股盘初均 转跌,午盘刷新日低时,期金跌至3958美元下方,日内跌近2.8%,现货黄金不足39451美元,日内跌2.4%。 COMEX 12月白银期货盘前一度涨至49.965美元,逼近1980年创下的50.35美元盘中最高纪录,但随后转跌,午盘刷新日低至46.89美元,日内跌4.3%。现货 白银在美股早盘曾涨至51美元上方,创1980年亨特兄弟操纵市场逼空事件以来新高,日内涨4.8%,但到美股午盘时,一度几乎抹平所有涨幅。 Cboe白银ETF波动指数(VXSLV)更是出现爆发式上涨,过去一年中每次波动性激增都伴随着白银的喘息或调整。 有评论认为,金银回落显示,在交易价最近数日累计大涨至技术性超买区域后,投资者选择获利了结。有分 ...
帮主郑重:铜价飙出一年最大涨,金价七周连阳,这周大宗商品在闹啥?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-04 07:02
这周打开大宗商品行情,不少老玩家都忍不住念叨"这波动静够大"——铜价一下子飙出一年来最大单周涨幅,眼看就要摸到去年的纪录高点;金价更邪 乎,直接奔着七周连涨去了,离之前的历史高点就差口气;就连原油,也被特朗普的一句话搅得上下晃。我是帮主郑重,做了20年财经记者,盯大宗商 品这么多年,最清楚这种"热闹"背后,从来不是单一消息在推,得慢慢捋才知道门道。 先说原油,周五突然涨了点,表面看是特朗普给哈马斯下了最后通牒,说不接受停火计划就要有严重后果,这事儿一出来,大家立马担心中东那边的石 油供应会不会出问题,毕竟那儿可是全球原油的"命脉"之一,加上乌克兰又说炸了俄罗斯的炼油厂,短期确实给油价添了层"风险buff"。但你要是往深了 看,这周油价其实是跌了7.4%的,因为市场心里还揣着个大疑问——OPEC+马上要商量要不要加快复产,这可是直接关系到全球原油供需的大事;再加 上美国为了保伊拉克的原油出口一直在忙活,还有政府停摆的事儿,这些都让不少人对油价不敢太乐观。所以原油这波涨,更像是短期消息搅出来的波 动,中长线看,还得等OPEC+的决定和供需真章。 再看铜——这周最亮眼的当属它,单周涨了5.2%,创下一年来最大涨幅, ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:05
2025.09.29-09.30 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 本周黄金期货价格整体呈现"冲高回调后再度企稳"的偏强震荡格局。主 要受美联储降息周期开启后市场对年内进一步宽松的预期、地缘政治风 险升温推升避险需求、全球黄金ETF持仓增持与国内消费需求旺盛形成 共振。尽管周中受美国经济数据韧性及多头获利了结影响出现短暂回调, 但中长期支撑因素未改,价格快速修复并再创阶段性高位。从中长期来 看美元信用弱化、全球央行持续购金及地缘政治风险升温共同驱动,叠 加投资需求激增形成多重支撑。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 Contents 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 黄金合约2512预期高位震荡为主,下方支撑位805-812,上方阻 力位:838-845。重点关注美联储政策路径指引、美国经济 数据验证。 本周策略建议 黄金合约2512存在高位获利了结压力,下方支撑位845-850,建 议节前以观望为主。 品种诊断情况 本报告数 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:50
Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]
年内涨幅超过黄金?它凭啥→
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-25 08:49
Group 1 - Silver prices have been on the rise since July, becoming a focal point in the global commodity market, with a significant increase of 18% in Q1 2025, reaching $34 per ounce [1] - As of July, silver prices peaked at over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 35%, outpacing gold's performance [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions driving investment towards silver as a "gold alternative" [1] Group 2 - Industrial demand is a major factor in the rising silver prices, with a projected increase of 4% in industrial demand for 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, driven by green economy applications [2] - Historically, silver has been recognized as a valuable element, used as currency since 700 BC, and has maintained its status as a store of value across various cultures [2] - Silver's intrinsic value remains significant, securing its place in diverse investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Silver and gold, both precious metals, differ in their attributes; gold has stronger financial properties while silver has greater commodity attributes [3] - Gold's demand is primarily from physical consumption and financial investment, whereas silver's price is more influenced by industrial demand and supply factors [3] - Silver's market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller market size and liquidity compared to gold, leading to stronger speculative tendencies [3]
7月经济价升量落,低位平衡点逐步形成
China Post Securities· 2025-07-21 09:08
Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]
贵金属“击鼓传花”,白银接力年内飙涨33%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 07:41
Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a perfect rotation with silver prices surging significantly, outperforming gold and platinum in recent months [1][2]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have seen a dramatic increase, reaching over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1][2]. - As of July 15, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures price rose to 9,225 yuan per kilogram, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [2]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Rise - The surge in silver prices is attributed to industrial demand driven by the acceleration of global energy transition and geopolitical risks, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3][6]. - The global photovoltaic market is expected to see a significant increase in silver demand, with projections of over 600 GW of new installations by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Investment Flow - Recent inflows into the silver market are primarily from institutional investors and individual investors, with a notable increase in silver ETF holdings and speculative positions in futures markets [4]. - As of July 14, the largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 14,966.24 tons, marking a peak for the year [4]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - The World Silver Association forecasts that silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by strong industrial demand and investment inflows [5][7]. - Analysts predict that silver's price will continue to rise due to supply constraints and robust industrial demand, particularly from green technologies [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Trends - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural deficit, with industrial demand expected to remain strong, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and solar energy [7][8]. - Despite some cautious outlooks regarding short-term price movements, there is an expectation that silver will outperform gold in the long run as economic growth accelerates [9].
白银异军突起强化看涨前景
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-15 08:14
在隔夜触及近14年高点后,银价正面临强劲的抛售压力。但Solomon Global的分析师Nick Cawley表示, 有几个因素对白银有利,这应该会支撑银价走高。 他在最新的报告中表示:"现货银价将在短期内走高,并测试每盎司40美元的心理阻力位。之前的月度 高点为43.35美元/盎司(2011年9月)和44.24美元/盎司(2011年8月)开始发挥作用。" 【技术分析】 周二(7月15日)欧盘时段,现货白银自日内低点反弹回升,目前交投于38.30美元上方,昨日银价一度 飙升至39.13美元的峰值,随后回落至38.41美元附近,持平于开盘价。尽管出现部分获利了结,但白银 仍能保住大部分涨幅,这反映出强劲的潜在需求,并强化了看涨前景。 【要闻速递】 周一白银价格上行刺破39关口,今年以来累计涨35%,超过黄金28%的涨幅。银价上涨的背后是现货市 场供应紧张和借贷成本激增。一个月期银价借贷的隐含年化成本已跳升至6%以上,远高于通常接近零 的水平。美国毛衣政策担忧也进一步推高了银价,墨西哥作为最大的银生产国和美国市场的关键供应 商,面临高达30%的关税威胁。此外,作为避险资产和工业用金属,银价受益于地缘政治冲突、毛 ...
涨涨涨!狂飙!创13年来新高!
新华网财经· 2025-07-12 02:34
Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of heightened investment demand and industrial usage, with significant growth in sales of investment silver products observed this year [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movement - As of July 11, silver prices reached a 14-year high, with spot prices rising by 3.77% to over $38 per ounce and COMEX futures increasing by 4.74% to surpass $39 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 32% [1]. - The increase in silver prices is attributed to both safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and rising industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [6][10]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Sales of investment silver products, such as silver bars and silver ingots, have surged by over 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer interest [3]. - In June, sales of investment silver bars increased by 20% compared to May, with a notable preference for one-kilogram and 500-gram bars among consumers [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, with a reported shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2022, a gap that has persisted for five consecutive years [7]. - The World Silver Association projects that the demand for silver will continue to rise, particularly in the automotive sector, where the silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles is expected to increase by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional vehicles [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions suggest that silver prices have further upward potential due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance and the financial attributes of silver [9]. - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations and the direction of U.S. monetary policy are identified as key factors influencing silver price fluctuations in the short term [10].
巨富金业小课堂:黄金白银的技基结合差异
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 02:27
Group 1 - The core difference between gold and silver lies in their attributes, with gold primarily having financial properties and silver possessing both industrial and financial properties, which significantly affects their market performance in 2025 [1] - Gold pricing is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity and safe-haven demand, while silver's industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, with a projected 18% growth in global photovoltaic installations, leading to a dual logic of "industrial drive + financial recovery" for silver in Q2 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on monetary policy and geopolitical risks, while silver requires attention to industrial data; for instance, a rise in global manufacturing PMI above the neutral line would boost silver demand [4] - The volatility of silver is significantly higher than that of gold, making silver more suitable for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the higher volatility rates observed in July 2025 [5] Group 3 - In the context of the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, gold relies more on interest rate expectations, while silver's performance is influenced by both industrial data and the gold-silver ratio; a breakout in the gold-silver ratio can indicate potential valuation recovery for silver [6] - A practical case in June 2025 showed that gold rose by 2.8% due to increased steel tariffs, while silver surged by 5.3% driven by industrial demand expectations and gold-silver ratio recovery [7] Group 4 - The conclusion emphasizes that gold should focus on "monetary attributes + interest rate cycles," while silver should pay attention to "industrial demand + gold-silver ratio recovery," suggesting a dynamic balance strategy for both metals [8]