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有色金属价格上行周期
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大涨超60%,A股下一个超级风口是有色金属?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 04:37
Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the A-share market has outperformed globally, with the technology sector led by AI and robotics being the strongest market theme. However, the non-ferrous metals sector has also seen a significant rise, with an index increase of over 60%, indicating a potential new upward cycle for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective rebound after a three-year adjustment period, with some companies' stock prices doubling and over 50 companies rising more than 60% [1][2]. - The price of gold has surged from over $2,600 to $3,800, a rise of over 40%, driven by central banks in emerging markets increasing their gold reserves amid concerns over the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The price of antimony has skyrocketed fivefold in Europe and doubled domestically, with China being the largest supplier, accounting for 80% of global supply [5]. - Industrial metals like aluminum, copper, and zinc have also seen price increases, with cobalt prices rising from 160,000 yuan/ton to 290,000 yuan/ton due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery - Prior to the market rally, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector was just over 2, at a near ten-year low, setting the stage for valuation recovery as earnings improved [6]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices have risen by 13% since 2025, nearing historical highs, with supply growth being limited due to cautious capital expenditures from major copper companies [8][9]. - China's investment in the power grid has exceeded 330 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, driving copper demand [9][10]. Group 5: Aluminum Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry has benefited from supply-side reforms, with production nearing regulatory limits and demand shifting towards electronics and renewable energy sectors [15][16]. - Major Chinese aluminum companies have reported significant profit increases, with China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum showing year-on-year profit growth of 95%, 85%, 102%, and 12% respectively [16][17]. Group 6: Future Prospects - The upward price cycle for non-ferrous metals, including copper and aluminum, is likely to continue, with the potential for sustained performance from leading companies [18].