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对二甲苯:成本端大幅上涨,月差滚动正套,PTA:成本支撑,月差正套,MEG:单边趋势仍偏弱,月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and short PXN on rallies. Cost end strengthens significantly, and there is a marginal decrease in supply. Consider a rolling positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread [1][6]. - **PTA**: With the new device of Sanfangxiang gradually coming into operation, the supply pressure continues to increase. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis maintains a weak state, and continue the reverse spread operation for the basis. The monthly spread is approaching parity. Considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August due to the maintenance of multiple Yisheng Petrochemical devices, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage for the 9 - 1 monthly spread [1][6]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive spread arbitrage and monthly spread reverse spread arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the monthly spread remains weak due to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The trend of ethylene glycol is weak. Pay attention to the arbitrage of shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L. The supply is slightly loose, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has rebounded [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On the 30th, the PX price rose, with the end - of - session spot for September at 868/871 in negotiation and October at 860/864 in negotiation, but no transactions. A 1.34 - million - ton PX device in the Middle East has produced products recently and is currently increasing its load [3]. - **PTA**: A new 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently and is in product debugging. A 50,000 - ton IPA device in North China is restarting and is expected to produce products next week [3]. - **MEG**: On the 30th, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,527 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for the end of August was 4,528 yuan/ton. The average spot price in Ningbo market was 4,542 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in South China market was 4,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polyester**: On the 30th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 6 - 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales volume of 43% as of 3:00 p.m [4][5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is - 1 [5]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6,984 | 4,856 | 4,450 | 6,500 | 528.6 | | Change | 6,942 | 18 | - 17 | 0 | 13.6 | | Change Rate | 0.61% | 0.37% | - 0.38% | 0.00% | 2.64% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 106 | 2 | - 28 | - 54 | 7.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 108 | 6 | - 25 | - 32 | 6.6 | | Change | - 2 | - 4 | - 3 | - 22 | 0.5 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 866.33 | 4,858 | 4,525 | 608.25 | 73.56 | | Previous Day's Price | 857.33 | 4,830 | 4,518 | 589.25 | 71.48 | | Change | 9 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 2.08 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 279.55 | 198.31 | 115.62 | - 28.79 | - 6.01 | | Change | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]