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对二甲苯:成本坍塌,单边趋势转弱,PTA:月差正套,MEG:单边趋势偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:34
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Go long on dips before mid - September [6][7] - PTA: Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for the month spread, and long PTA short PX for the processing fee [7] - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread may be strong, and the unilateral price has limited downside [7] 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected increase in OPEC+ production, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, weakening PX valuation, but the downside of PX's unilateral price is limited. PTA follows the decline of crude oil prices. MEG's valuation drops as coal and crude oil prices fall, but its supply - demand remains tight in September [6][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 4th, Asian paraxylene prices dropped significantly due to falling oil prices and the pressure of PTA over - capacity. Crude oil futures continued to decline as investors anticipated a possible increase in OPEC+ production. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on September 7th to determine October's production level [3][4] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On September 4th, Platts' assessment of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea was 828 and 807 dollars/ton respectively, down 15 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars/ton [2][3] - **PTA**: As of Thursday, PTA load was 72.8%. The PTA processing fee was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan/ton [2][5] - **MEG**: As of September 4th, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.12% (down 1.01% from the previous period). The operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.68% (down 3.06% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Sales Volume - On September 4th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 3 - 40%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 39% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]
短纤:估值偏高,高位震荡,瓶片:估值偏高,高位震荡瓶片
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:43
贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅(联系人) 从业资格号:F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 08 月 26 日 短纤:估值偏高,高位震荡 瓶片:估值偏高,高位震荡 短纤趋势强度:0;瓶片趋势强度:0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况) 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强,-2 表示 最看空,2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | ୧486 | ୧୧୦୧ | -20 | PF09-10 | -110 | -108 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2510 | ୧୧୨୧ | 6614 | -18 | PF10-11 | 2 | 30 | -28 | | | 短纤2511 | 6594 | 6584 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250808
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]
棕榈油:基本面矛盾不明显,国际油价影响大豆油,美豆天气炒作不足,缺乏驱动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 01:44
Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil has no obvious fundamental contradictions and is greatly affected by international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil lacks driving factors due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [2][4]. - Bean meal may fluctuate as overnight US soybeans were closed and lacked guidance [2][9]. - Bean one's spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2][9]. - Corn will run in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar will trade in a narrow range [2][18]. - Cotton requires attention to US tariff policies and their impacts [2][22]. - For eggs, it is difficult to increase culling, and attention should be paid to the anticipation of early trading [2][28]. - The gaming sentiment for live pigs has increased [2][30]. - Peanuts have support at the lower level [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,472 yuan/ton (down 0.07%) during the day and 8,482 yuan/ton (up 0.12%) at night; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton (down 0.63%) during the day and 7,916 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) at night [4]. - **Industry News**: MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 decreased by 4.69%; UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease by June 30. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4%. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, slightly less than last year [5][7]. Bean Meal and Bean One - **Futures Data**: DCE bean one 2509 closed at 4111 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) during the day and 4103 yuan/ton (down 0.73%) at night; DCE bean meal 2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton (down 0.20%) during the day and 2961 yuan/ton (down 0.03%) at night [9]. - **Industry News**: The US market was closed on Friday due to a public holiday, with no CBOT agricultural product daily reviews [9][11]. Corn - **Futures Data**: C2509 closed at 2,353 yuan/ton (down 0.47%) during the day and 2,346 yuan/ton (down 0.30%) at night; C2511 closed at 2,301 yuan/ton (down 0.26%) during the day and 2,300 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) at night [12]. - **Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained flat, while North China corn prices mostly declined. Wheat's average addition ratio in feed could reach 20% - 30% [13]. Sugar - **Futures Data**: The original sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6070 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5769 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. CAOC predicted domestic sugar production and consumption for 24/25 and 25/26. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 tons in 24/25 [18][19]. Cotton - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) during the day and 13850 yuan/ton (up 0.51%) at night; CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton (down 0.17%) during the day and 20070 yuan/ton (up 0.35%) at night [22]. - **Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the downstream purchasing intention was weak. The cotton yarn market demand remained low, and the fabric mill inventory pressure was large. The market focused on US tariff policies [23]. Eggs - **Futures Data**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.67%); egg 2510 closed at 3,419 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.41%) [28]. - **Industry News**: No significant industry - specific news was provided other than the futures data and price trends. Live Pigs - **Futures Data**: The Henan spot price was 15180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 17440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts showed various changes [32]. - **Market Logic**: The futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The expected state purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, but the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing the gaming. Attention should be paid to the spot performance in the future [34]. Peanuts - **Futures Data**: PK510 closed at 8,188 yuan/ton (down 0.90%); PK511 closed at 7,926 yuan/ton (down 0.85%) [36]. - **Industry News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in various regions were basically stable, with some areas having slightly improved sales [37].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250520
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 01:58
Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated May 20, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - **Investment Rating**: Implied as short - term weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [5]. - **Core View**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force has slowed down [4]. - **Key Points**: - Futures price closed at 736.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan (-0.07%). Open interest increased by 13,617 to 757,976 hands [5]. - Imported ore prices declined, e.g., PB (61.5%) dropped 5 yuan to 773 yuan/ton [5]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [7][9]. - **Core View**: Raw materials continue to decline, and both are in a weak and volatile state [7]. - **Key Points**: - Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan (-1.00%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,207 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.02%) [7]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; the daily average output in April decreased by 4.3% month - on - month [7][9]. - From May 1 - 10, 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Rating**: Wide - range volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [10][12]. - **Core View**: Ferrosilicon cost may decline, while silicomanganese is supported by spot prices [10]. - **Key Points**: - Ferrosilicon 2507 futures closed at 5,690 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; silicomanganese 2509 futures closed at 5,844 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [10]. - Silicomanganese spot price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan to 5,580 yuan/ton [10]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; exports of manganese ore through Port Hedland in April decreased by 37.5% month - on - month [10][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [14][17]. - **Core View**: Pig iron output is declining, leading to a weak and volatile state [14]. - **Key Points**: - Coking coal JM2509 futures closed at 845 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan (-0.88%); coke J2509 futures closed at 1,428 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan (-1.21%) [14]. - On May 19, 2025, from the top 20 members' positions in DCE, coking coal JM2509 contract's long positions increased by 7,490 hands, and short positions increased by 8,315 hands [15]. Steam Coal - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. - **Core View**: Coal mine inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak and volatile state [18]. - **Key Points**: - Steam coal ZC2506 had no trading on May 20, 2025, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [18]. - Southern port's foreign - trade steam coal prices and domestic production area prices are provided [19]. Logs - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of -1 [21][25]. - **Core View**: In a state of weak oscillation [21]. - **Key Points**: - Log 2507 contract's closing price was 788 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.6% daily and 2.6% weekly [23]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [25].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250512
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:41
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm oil**: Pressure has been released in the short - term, and there may be support below [3][5]. - **Soybean oil**: Oscillating to find the bottom, remaining relatively strong among varieties [3][5]. - **Soybean meal**: Weak in the short - term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report [3][10]. - **Soybean**: Weakly oscillating [3][10]. - **Corn**: Oscillating with an upward bias [3][13]. - **Sugar**: Stabilizing in the short - term [3][18]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining an oscillating trend [3][22]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting [3][28]. - **Hogs**: Near - term contradictions are not obvious [3][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [3][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 7,940 yuan/ton (0.68%); soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were both 7,780 yuan/ton, with a day - session increase of 0.26% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: USDA reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export to Pakistan in the 2025/26 period; Brazil's 2024/25 soybean commercial sales reached 57% of the expected output, up 6.3 percentage points from last month [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton (-0.16, -0.38%), and night - session was 4,171 yuan/ton (-4, -0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,899 yuan/ton and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, both down 0.45% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 9, CBOT soybeans rose due to upcoming China - US negotiations and an export sales report; however, ideal sowing conditions in the US soybean belt limited the upward trend, and China's April soybean imports dropped to a ten - year low [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both - 1 [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2507's day - session closing price was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.30%), and night - session was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2509's day - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton (0.13%), and night - session was 2,383 yuan/ton (-0.08%) [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and prices in various regions showed different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 1 [16]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price was 17.82 cents/pound (0.3), mainstream spot price was 6,150 yuan/ton (20), and futures main - contract price was 5,839 yuan/ton (26) [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information showed that factors such as rising crude oil prices and Brazil's slightly accelerated crushing progress affected the sugar market; domestic and international sugar supply - demand situations were also reported [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 12,950 yuan/ton (0.39%), and night - session was 12,980 yuan/ton (0.23%); CY2507's day - session closing price was 19,220 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and night - session was 19,330 yuan/ton (0.57%) [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Domestic cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton textile enterprise situation was generally stable; ICE cotton was waiting for USDA reports [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2507's closing price was 3,034 yuan/500 kilograms (0.46%), and Egg 2509's was 3,767 yuan/500 kilograms (0.21%) [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 15,000 yuan/ton (-50), Sichuan's was 14,650 yuan/ton (-100), and Guangdong's was 15,290 yuan/ton (-150) [32]. - **Market Logic**: After the May Day holiday, second - fattening still had rotation intentions, but price differences were inverted; the focus was on inventory accumulation and far - month spread arbitrage strategies [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is 0 [33]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts' price was 8,100 yuan/ton (0), Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts' was 8,060 yuan/ton (0) [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions, peanut prices were generally stable, with some regions showing slight price increases or decreases due to factors such as supply and demand [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].
棕榈油:短期偏弱,下方有支撑豆油:单边有回调风险,品种间偏强豆粕:假期美豆涨跌互现,连粕或偏弱运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 07:55
Report Overview - Report Date: May 6, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Risk of unilateral correction, relatively strong among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans fluctuated during the holiday, Dalian soybean meal may run weakly [2][17] - Soybean: Range - bound [2][18] - Corn: Range - bound with an upward bias [2][20] - Sugar: Range consolidation [2][25] - Cotton: Still lacks upward drivers [2][29] - Eggs: Range adjustment [2][34] - Hogs: Trading volume decreased during the holiday, focus on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2][36] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mill purchases [2][40] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,148 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton. MPOB monthly report forecast shows that Malaysia's April 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.79 million tons, up 14.8% month - on - month; production is expected to be 1.62 million tons, up 16.9%; exports are expected to be 1.1 million tons, up 9.7% [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating short - term weakness [16]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Soybean oil main contract closed at 7,832 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.67% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a risk of unilateral correction [16]. Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 2,920 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (- 1.91%). CBOT soybean 07 contract closed at 1046 cents/bu, down 12.25 cents/bu (- 1.16%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating potential weak operation [19]. Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2507 contract closed at 4,188 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.19%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2507 contract closed at 2,377 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. C2509 contract closed at 2,392 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. As of April 27, the U.S. corn sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the five - year average of 22% [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a range - bound with an upward bias [23]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price was 17.43 cents/lb, up 0.16 cents/lb. Mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CAOC expects China's 24/25 sugar production to be 11 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting range consolidation [27]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2509 contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. ICE cotton 07 contract closed at 68.53 cents/lb, up 0.25%. Domestic cotton spot basis was stable, while the cotton yarn market had weak trading [29][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a lack of upward drivers [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2505 contract closed at 3,073 yuan/500 kg, down 1.88%. Egg 2509 contract closed at 3,791 yuan/500 kg, down 0.47% [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing range adjustment [34]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. Sichuan spot price was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The procurement progress of second - fattening in April was more than half, and the high - price chasing sentiment cooled down. The short - term support level of LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting focusing on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [38]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. PK505 contract closed at 7,776 yuan/ton, down 2.29%. Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating to focus on oil mill purchases [42].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250428
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 01:52
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The driving force for an uptrend is questionable, and it is currently regarded as range - bound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market have eased, leading to a decline in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures [2][14]. - Soybean: Affected by the fluctuations in the soybean meal spot market, it followed the downward trend [2][14]. - Corn: The trend is slightly bullish with oscillations [2][17]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound consolidation [2][22]. - Cotton: Demand will continue to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][26]. - Eggs: The spot market is weakly oscillating [2][31]. - Hogs: A phase of inventory reduction may commence [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 1.77% increase, and the night - session was 8,310 yuan/ton with a 0.79% decrease. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,934 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session was 7,868 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [5]. - Spot: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 486 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 14.75% (AmSpec), 13.8% (ITS), and 3.6% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [6][8][9]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry urged the government to adjust import tariffs to support domestic refining capacity [9]. - According to the CFTC report, as of April 22, long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed increased, while short positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed also changed [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of - 1 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE soybean 2507 closed at 4,237 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 1.42% decrease, and DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton with a 0.92% decrease [14]. - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal in Shandong was 3,750 - 3,850 yuan/ton, down 50 or 20 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On April 25, CBOT soybean futures mostly fell as China denied tariff negotiations [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of - 1 [16]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2505 closed at 2,292 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 0.39% increase, and C2507 closed at 2,336 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase [18]. - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's flat - price corn was 2,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Guangdong Shekou's corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Corn prices in northern ports and various regions showed an upward trend [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,974 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [22]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [22]. - **Macro and Industry News** - High - frequency information indicated drought in Guangxi, low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in Brazil's Q1 [22]. - CAOC estimated that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 1,100 million tons, consumption 1,580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [23]. - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton during the day - session with no change, and CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [26]. - Spot: The price of 3128B cotton index was 14,224 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, and the cotton textile industry faced challenges such as insufficient orders and reduced procurement [27]. - ICE cotton closed at 68.7 cents/pound on Friday, affected by poor export data and favorable weather [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% increase, and Egg 2509 closed at 3,818 yuan/500 kg with a 0.03% decrease [31]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Henan's spot price was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of hog 2505 was 14,115 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [35]. - Spot: The prices of hogs in Sichuan and Guangdong also decreased [35]. - **Market Logic** - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, second - fattening started, but recently, the sentiment has cooled, and a phase of inventory reduction may begin. The support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [36]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK505 closed at 8,046 yuan/ton with a 1.52% decrease, and PK510 closed at 8,270 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [38]. - Spot: The prices of peanuts in various regions were relatively stable [38][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-2025-03-28
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-03-28 02:13
Report Overview - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Date: March 28, 2025 - Reported Industries: Iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, glass 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Intensified long-short game, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Improved sentiment, short-term rebound [2]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Resonance in the black futures market, wide-range oscillation [2]. - Coke and coking coal: Oscillating at low levels [2]. - Thermal coal: Slow release of demand, weak operation [2]. - Glass: Stable prices of original sheets [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2505 futures was 789.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan or 1.15%. The position decreased by 715 lots to 412,123 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores generally rose. The basis for I2505 against Super Special decreased by 2.4 yuan to 67.1 yuan [5]. - **News**: From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 0.3% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2505 and HC2505 futures were 3,208 yuan/ton and 3,381 yuan/ton, down 0.19% and 0.12% respectively. Rebar trading volume was 1,477,756 lots, and hot-rolled coil trading volume was 470,455 lots. Spot prices generally declined. The basis for RB2505 decreased by 19 yuan to 32 yuan, and the basis for HC2505 decreased by 5 yuan to -11 yuan [7]. - **News**: On March 28, steel output increased, total inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. From January to February, total social electricity consumption increased by 1.3% year-on-year [8]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a bullish outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2504 and 2505 futures were 5,974 yuan/ton and 6,002 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan and 18 yuan respectively. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2504 and 2505 futures were 6,274 yuan/ton and 6,130 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan each. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable [11]. - **News**: On March 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The production of silicomanganese in northern regions in March decreased compared to February [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of JM2505 and J2505 futures were 1,035 yuan/ton and 1,637.5 yuan/ton, up 0.93% and 1.36% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke remained stable. The basis for JM2505 against Meng 5 decreased by 12 yuan to 48 yuan, and the basis for J2505 against Shanxi quasi-primary coke increased by 212.5 yuan to -240.5 yuan [14]. - **News**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of JM2505 and J2505 decreased [14][15][16]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The ZC2504 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. Southern port and domestic production area prices were released. On March 27, the long and short positions of ZC2504 did not change [19][20]. - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FG505 futures was 1,236 yuan/ton, down 0.96%. The trading volume was 2,256,780 lots, and the position increased by 54,786 lots. The basis for the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan to -96 yuan, and the 05 - 09 contract spread increased by 11 yuan to -31 yuan. Spot prices in some regions decreased [22]. - **News**: The prices of domestic float glass original sheets were stable with local loosening. The futures price weakened, and downstream orders were limited [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [23].