Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 2, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range trading temporarily [2] - Soybean oil: Lack of drive from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2] - Soybean meal: Lack of new sales, US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2] - Soybean: Stable and slightly stronger spot prices support the futures market [2] - Corn: Run in a volatile manner [2] - Sugar: Run weakly [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the changes in spot basis and the growth rate of warehouse receipts [2] - Eggs: Increased culling volume, positive sentiment for distant contracts [2] - Hogs: Volume reduction has been realized, and the industrial logic will return [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged. The basis in Guangdong was - 82 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36%, and production decreased by 0.19%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 30 decreased by 15.89%. Indonesia exported 1,949 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to October, a 7.83% increase [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.53% and a night - session decrease of 0.34%. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 332 yuan/ton [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: For soybean meal futures, DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.36% and a night - session decrease of 0.13%. The spot price range was 3000 - 3140 yuan/ton. For soybean futures, DCE soybean 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.27% and a night - session increase of 0.56% [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 1, CBOT soybean futures closed down due to lack of sales to China. StoneX lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast to 1.772 billion tons, and as of November 27, Brazil's soybean planting was 89% complete [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures C2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.22% and a night - session increase of 0.31%. The spot price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract 01 was 14 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices and Guangdong Shekou prices remained unchanged. Northeast deep - processing corn prices strengthened, and North China corn prices rose [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 14.74 US cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5510 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5405 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: China should focus on the import policy of syrup and premixed powder and the new sugar price in Guangxi. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season's Indian sugar export quota was 1.5 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [20] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures CF2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.62% and a night - session increase of 0.44%. The spot price in North Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 900 yuan/ton [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the mainstream basis changed little. The cotton yarn market was weak, and downstream procurement was not active. ICE cotton was under pressure due to poor export data [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures 2512 had a closing price decrease of 2.47%, and 2601 had a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price in Liaoning was 3.10 yuan/jin [28] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price in Henan was 11,430 yuan/ton, and the futures price of hogs 2601 was 11,495 yuan/ton. The trading volume of hogs 2601 decreased by 15,052 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,802 lots [30] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [31] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the futures price of PK601 was 8,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The trading volume of PK601 decreased by 38,276 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,602 lots [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin and Liaoning, prices were stable or slightly weak; in Shandong, prices were stable [34] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cooling expectation for the pig market has materialized, and the pressure is gradually being released [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 11,830 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 11,400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; in Guangdong, it is 12,160 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig futures contract 2601 is 11,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; contract 2603 is 11,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5; contract 2605 is 11,995 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For contract 2601, the trading volume is 55,080 lots, a decrease of 32,311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 138,334 lots, a decrease of 4,083 from the previous day; for contract 2603, the trading volume is 14,483 lots, a decrease of 6,257 from the previous day, and the open interest is 114,413 lots, a decrease of 469 from the previous day; for contract 2605, the trading volume is 12,335 lots, a decrease of 3,827 from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,576 lots, an increase of 1,060 from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2601 is 270 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 75; the basis of contract 2603 is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105; the basis of contract 2605 is - 165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the spread between contract 2601 and 2603 is 210 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; the spread between contract 2603 and 2605 is - 645 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Go long on dips before mid - September [6][7] - PTA: Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for the month spread, and long PTA short PX for the processing fee [7] - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread may be strong, and the unilateral price has limited downside [7] 2) Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected increase in OPEC+ production, crude oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days, weakening PX valuation, but the downside of PX's unilateral price is limited. PTA follows the decline of crude oil prices. MEG's valuation drops as coal and crude oil prices fall, but its supply - demand remains tight in September [6][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On September 4th, Asian paraxylene prices dropped significantly due to falling oil prices and the pressure of PTA over - capacity. Crude oil futures continued to decline as investors anticipated a possible increase in OPEC+ production. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on September 7th to determine October's production level [3][4] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On September 4th, Platts' assessment of Asian paraxylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea was 828 and 807 dollars/ton respectively, down 15 dollars/ton. The PX - naphtha spread was 251.29 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars/ton [2][3] - **PTA**: As of Thursday, PTA load was 72.8%. The PTA processing fee was 188.78 yuan/ton, down 32.89 yuan/ton [2][5] - **MEG**: As of September 4th, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 74.12% (down 1.01% from the previous period). The operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 74.68% (down 3.06% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75% [5] Sales Volume - On September 4th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 3 - 40%. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 39% [6] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Valuation is high, with high-level fluctuations [1] - Bottle chips: Valuation is high, with high-level fluctuations [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short fiber and bottle chip industries are currently in a state where valuations are on the high side, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The short - term price trends of both are affected by factors such as international oil prices, raw material futures, and market trading sentiment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 decreased by 20, short fiber 2510 decreased by 18, and short fiber 2511 increased by 10 [1] - Spread: PF09 - 10 decreased by 2, PF10 - 11 decreased by 28, and the basis increased by 3 [1] - Position and volume: The持仓 volume decreased by 12,989 to 287,751, and the trading volume decreased by 46,594 to 258,264 [1] - Spot price and sales: The East China spot price decreased by 15 to 6,585, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 16% to 45% [1] 3.1.2 Bottle Chips - Futures prices: Bottle chips 2509 decreased by 34, bottle chips 2510 increased by 10, and bottle chips 2511 increased by 12 [1] - Spread: PR09 - 10 decreased by 44, PR10 - 11 decreased by 2, and the main basis decreased by 30 [1] - Position and volume: The持仓 volume increased by 666 to 32,929, and the trading volume increased by 36,185 to 99,275 [1] - Spot price: The East China spot price decreased by 20 to 5,980, and the South China spot price remained unchanged at 6,020 [1] 3.2 Spot News 3.2.1 Short Fiber - International oil prices fluctuated, TA futures weakened, and PF futures followed the decline. The spot price of polyester staple fiber remained stable, with a light trading atmosphere. The average sales - to - production ratio of short - fiber factories was 45% [1] 3.2.2 Bottle Chips - The futures of upstream polyester raw materials fluctuated weakly. The quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with partial cuts of 20 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was light [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 0 - Bottle chips trend intensity: 0 (referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract on the day - trading session of the report date) [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [4] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [4] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and relevant macro and industry news [4][6][10] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 793.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (-0.19%). The open - position decreased by 22,928 hands. Among spot prices, PB decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton, and others remained stable. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [6] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month; imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore, down 1.3% month - on - month [6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [7] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,231 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; HC2510 closed at 3,440 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. Open - positions decreased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. Basis and spreads changed [10] - **News**: In late July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. Weekly data on August 7 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased, and the price of manganese ore increased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [14] - **News**: There were price changes in silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [15][16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [16] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 increased. Some spot prices remained stable, while the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased. Basis and spreads changed [18] - **News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, up 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [20] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions. Spot prices of most log types remained stable [22] - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil has no obvious fundamental contradictions and is greatly affected by international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil lacks driving factors due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [2][4]. - Bean meal may fluctuate as overnight US soybeans were closed and lacked guidance [2][9]. - Bean one's spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [2][9]. - Corn will run in a volatile manner [2][12]. - Sugar will trade in a narrow range [2][18]. - Cotton requires attention to US tariff policies and their impacts [2][22]. - For eggs, it is difficult to increase culling, and attention should be paid to the anticipation of early trading [2][28]. - The gaming sentiment for live pigs has increased [2][30]. - Peanuts have support at the lower level [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,472 yuan/ton (down 0.07%) during the day and 8,482 yuan/ton (up 0.12%) at night; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton (down 0.63%) during the day and 7,916 yuan/ton (down 0.35%) at night [4]. - **Industry News**: MPOA estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 decreased by 4.69%; UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease by June 30. Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected output, and 2025/26 sales reached 16.4%. Brazil exported 13,420,303 tons of soybeans in June, slightly less than last year [5][7]. Bean Meal and Bean One - **Futures Data**: DCE bean one 2509 closed at 4111 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) during the day and 4103 yuan/ton (down 0.73%) at night; DCE bean meal 2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton (down 0.20%) during the day and 2961 yuan/ton (down 0.03%) at night [9]. - **Industry News**: The US market was closed on Friday due to a public holiday, with no CBOT agricultural product daily reviews [9][11]. Corn - **Futures Data**: C2509 closed at 2,353 yuan/ton (down 0.47%) during the day and 2,346 yuan/ton (down 0.30%) at night; C2511 closed at 2,301 yuan/ton (down 0.26%) during the day and 2,300 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) at night [12]. - **Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained flat, while North China corn prices mostly declined. Wheat's average addition ratio in feed could reach 20% - 30% [13]. Sugar - **Futures Data**: The original sugar price was 16.37 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6070 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5769 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. CAOC predicted domestic sugar production and consumption for 24/25 and 25/26. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 tons in 24/25 [18][19]. Cotton - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,780 yuan/ton (down 0.04%) during the day and 13850 yuan/ton (up 0.51%) at night; CY2509 closed at 20,000 yuan/ton (down 0.17%) during the day and 20070 yuan/ton (up 0.35%) at night [22]. - **Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the downstream purchasing intention was weak. The cotton yarn market demand remained low, and the fabric mill inventory pressure was large. The market focused on US tariff policies [23]. Eggs - **Futures Data**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,582 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.67%); egg 2510 closed at 3,419 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.41%) [28]. - **Industry News**: No significant industry - specific news was provided other than the futures data and price trends. Live Pigs - **Futures Data**: The Henan spot price was 15180 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 14850 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 17440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts showed various changes [32]. - **Market Logic**: The futures market has entered the expectation - trading stage. The expected state purchase has driven the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, but the futures price offers hedging profits, increasing the gaming. Attention should be paid to the spot performance in the future [34]. Peanuts - **Futures Data**: PK510 closed at 8,188 yuan/ton (down 0.90%); PK511 closed at 7,926 yuan/ton (down 0.85%) [36]. - **Industry News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in various regions were basically stable, with some areas having slightly improved sales [37].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series" dated May 20, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - **Investment Rating**: Implied as short - term weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [5]. - **Core View**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force has slowed down [4]. - **Key Points**: - Futures price closed at 736.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan (-0.07%). Open interest increased by 13,617 to 757,976 hands [5]. - Imported ore prices declined, e.g., PB (61.5%) dropped 5 yuan to 773 yuan/ton [5]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [7][9]. - **Core View**: Raw materials continue to decline, and both are in a weak and volatile state [7]. - **Key Points**: - Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan (-1.00%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,207 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.02%) [7]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; the daily average output in April decreased by 4.3% month - on - month [7][9]. - From May 1 - 10, 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Rating**: Wide - range volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [10][12]. - **Core View**: Ferrosilicon cost may decline, while silicomanganese is supported by spot prices [10]. - **Key Points**: - Ferrosilicon 2507 futures closed at 5,690 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; silicomanganese 2509 futures closed at 5,844 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [10]. - Silicomanganese spot price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan to 5,580 yuan/ton [10]. - In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, flat year - on - year; exports of manganese ore through Port Hedland in April decreased by 37.5% month - on - month [10][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 for both [14][17]. - **Core View**: Pig iron output is declining, leading to a weak and volatile state [14]. - **Key Points**: - Coking coal JM2509 futures closed at 845 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan (-0.88%); coke J2509 futures closed at 1,428 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan (-1.21%) [14]. - On May 19, 2025, from the top 20 members' positions in DCE, coking coal JM2509 contract's long positions increased by 7,490 hands, and short positions increased by 8,315 hands [15]. Steam Coal - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. - **Core View**: Coal mine inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak and volatile state [18]. - **Key Points**: - Steam coal ZC2506 had no trading on May 20, 2025, closing at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [18]. - Southern port's foreign - trade steam coal prices and domestic production area prices are provided [19]. Logs - **Investment Rating**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of -1 [21][25]. - **Core View**: In a state of weak oscillation [21]. - **Key Points**: - Log 2507 contract's closing price was 788 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.6% daily and 2.6% weekly [23]. - 1 - 4 months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm oil**: Pressure has been released in the short - term, and there may be support below [3][5]. - **Soybean oil**: Oscillating to find the bottom, remaining relatively strong among varieties [3][5]. - **Soybean meal**: Weak in the short - term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report [3][10]. - **Soybean**: Weakly oscillating [3][10]. - **Corn**: Oscillating with an upward bias [3][13]. - **Sugar**: Stabilizing in the short - term [3][18]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining an oscillating trend [3][22]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting [3][28]. - **Hogs**: Near - term contradictions are not obvious [3][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [3][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 7,940 yuan/ton (0.68%); soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were both 7,780 yuan/ton, with a day - session increase of 0.26% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: USDA reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export to Pakistan in the 2025/26 period; Brazil's 2024/25 soybean commercial sales reached 57% of the expected output, up 6.3 percentage points from last month [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton (-0.16, -0.38%), and night - session was 4,171 yuan/ton (-4, -0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,899 yuan/ton and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, both down 0.45% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 9, CBOT soybeans rose due to upcoming China - US negotiations and an export sales report; however, ideal sowing conditions in the US soybean belt limited the upward trend, and China's April soybean imports dropped to a ten - year low [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both - 1 [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2507's day - session closing price was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.30%), and night - session was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2509's day - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton (0.13%), and night - session was 2,383 yuan/ton (-0.08%) [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and prices in various regions showed different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 1 [16]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price was 17.82 cents/pound (0.3), mainstream spot price was 6,150 yuan/ton (20), and futures main - contract price was 5,839 yuan/ton (26) [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information showed that factors such as rising crude oil prices and Brazil's slightly accelerated crushing progress affected the sugar market; domestic and international sugar supply - demand situations were also reported [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 12,950 yuan/ton (0.39%), and night - session was 12,980 yuan/ton (0.23%); CY2507's day - session closing price was 19,220 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and night - session was 19,330 yuan/ton (0.57%) [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Domestic cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton textile enterprise situation was generally stable; ICE cotton was waiting for USDA reports [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2507's closing price was 3,034 yuan/500 kilograms (0.46%), and Egg 2509's was 3,767 yuan/500 kilograms (0.21%) [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 15,000 yuan/ton (-50), Sichuan's was 14,650 yuan/ton (-100), and Guangdong's was 15,290 yuan/ton (-150) [32]. - **Market Logic**: After the May Day holiday, second - fattening still had rotation intentions, but price differences were inverted; the focus was on inventory accumulation and far - month spread arbitrage strategies [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is 0 [33]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts' price was 8,100 yuan/ton (0), Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts' was 8,060 yuan/ton (0) [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions, peanut prices were generally stable, with some regions showing slight price increases or decreases due to factors such as supply and demand [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 6, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Risk of unilateral correction, relatively strong among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans fluctuated during the holiday, Dalian soybean meal may run weakly [2][17] - Soybean: Range - bound [2][18] - Corn: Range - bound with an upward bias [2][20] - Sugar: Range consolidation [2][25] - Cotton: Still lacks upward drivers [2][29] - Eggs: Range adjustment [2][34] - Hogs: Trading volume decreased during the holiday, focus on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2][36] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mill purchases [2][40] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,148 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton. MPOB monthly report forecast shows that Malaysia's April 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.79 million tons, up 14.8% month - on - month; production is expected to be 1.62 million tons, up 16.9%; exports are expected to be 1.1 million tons, up 9.7% [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating short - term weakness [16]. Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Soybean oil main contract closed at 7,832 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.67% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, suggesting a risk of unilateral correction [16]. Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 2,920 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (- 1.91%). CBOT soybean 07 contract closed at 1046 cents/bu, down 12.25 cents/bu (- 1.16%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating potential weak operation [19]. Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2507 contract closed at 4,188 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.19%) [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2507 contract closed at 2,377 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. C2509 contract closed at 2,392 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. As of April 27, the U.S. corn sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the five - year average of 22% [21][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a range - bound with an upward bias [23]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price was 17.43 cents/lb, up 0.16 cents/lb. Mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CAOC expects China's 24/25 sugar production to be 11 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting range consolidation [27]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2509 contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. ICE cotton 07 contract closed at 68.53 cents/lb, up 0.25%. Domestic cotton spot basis was stable, while the cotton yarn market had weak trading [29][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a lack of upward drivers [31]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2505 contract closed at 3,073 yuan/500 kg, down 1.88%. Egg 2509 contract closed at 3,791 yuan/500 kg, down 0.47% [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing range adjustment [34]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. Sichuan spot price was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The procurement progress of second - fattening in April was more than half, and the high - price chasing sentiment cooled down. The short - term support level of LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [37][39]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, suggesting focusing on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [38]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. PK505 contract closed at 7,776 yuan/ton, down 2.29%. Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases [40]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating to focus on oil mill purchases [42].