1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene should be watched for a bottom - reversal, with a weak start and a strong finish. In 2026, the three factors causing weakness in 2025 are expected to improve marginally, but the short - term contradiction of "weak chemical reality" remains prominent. The price is expected to be under pressure in Q1 2026, and there may be a chance of a bottom - rebound in Q2. The second half of the year depends on domestic macro - policies. The whole year is expected to show a wide - range shock with a lower - then - higher center of gravity [3][98]. - The processing fee center of styrene is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain in 2026 supports its price. However, if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 fails to meet expectations or export momentum weakens, the industry chain may face a late negative feedback [4][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Pure Benzene and Styrene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 Pure Benzene Price Trend Review - In Q1 2025, due to high import volume, downstream hidden inventory pressure, and downstream losses, the pure benzene price was under pressure and showed a weak shock pattern [6]. - In the middle and late Q2, the price rebounded and stabilized due to the recovery of downstream operations, spring inspections, and the progress of tariff negotiations [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the price fluctuated downward. In Q3, it was in a shock pattern, and in Q4, it further declined due to cost and supply - demand collapses [7][8]. 3.1.2 2025 Styrene Price Review - In Q1 2025, the styrene market was weak. Although there was cost support and optimistic demand expectations at the beginning, the price declined after the Spring Festival due to weak downstream replenishment and looser cost support [14]. - In Q2, affected by international political turmoil, the price showed a shock pattern, with significant fluctuations due to tariff policies, trade negotiations, and cost changes [15]. - In Q3, supply increased while demand decreased, and the price trended weakly. Although there was a short - term price increase in late August, high inventory led to a price decline [16]. - In November, the processing fee was quickly repaired, and the basis gradually strengthened in December [17][18]. 3.2 Pure Benzene: Weak Chemical Reality vs. Strong Gasoline - Blending Expectation, Focus on Bottom - Reversal Opportunity in Q2 2026 3.2.1 Low Valuation, Marginal Supply Contraction, Pure Benzene to Gradually Find the Bottom and Rebound after Q2 2026 - In 2025, the weakness of pure benzene was due to concentrated hoarding, unfulfilled gasoline - blending expectations, and weak domestic demand [21]. - In 2026, the three factors are expected to improve marginally. The consensus hoarding expectation has weakened, gasoline - blending expectations are strong with expected import reduction, and the downstream demand price elasticity has increased [24][26][30]. - Overall, pure benzene is in a pattern of being weak in Q1 and strengthening in Q2. The performance in the second half of the year depends on domestic demand policies [32]. 3.2.2 In 2026, the Domestic Industrial Chain of Pure Benzene Has Little Contradiction in Production, Focus on Maintenance Rhythm and Overseas Capacity Exit - In 2026, the domestic production pattern is not the main contradiction for pure benzene. The core is the operating rate of existing devices. The new production of downstream products slows down, and the new production of pure benzene is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [34]. - The key for pure benzene supply is the maintenance situation in 2026. The maintenance is less in the first half and more in the second half of the year. The private refineries mainly conduct maintenance in the first half, and the major refineries in the fourth quarter [37]. - In Asia, the production progress of pure benzene is greater than that of downstream products in 2026. Overseas devices in Europe and South Korea face the risk of exit, which may ease the high - inventory pressure [40][41]. 3.2.3 Gasoline - Blending Logic Eases the High Import Pressure of Pure Benzene, Focus on the Continuity of PX - BZ - High imports were the core problem for the weakness of pure benzene in 2025. In 2026, China's pure benzene imports are expected to decrease. The annual import is expected to be 5.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [43]. - The realization of the pure benzene logistics window between the US and Asia depends on factors such as the overseas supply recovery, the negotiation of contracts between Chinese downstream factories and overseas suppliers, and the overseas downstream device exit progress [47]. - PX - BZ has long - term driving factors. It is recommended to buy the spread after the winter cold wave in the US causes an aromatic hydrocarbon callback [49]. 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Fee Center Moves Up 3.3.1 In 2026, There Is Little New Production of Styrene, and the Processing Fee Remains at a Medium - to - High Level - In 2026, the new production of styrene is limited, with only 600,000 tons of Huajin Aramco to be put into production. The downstream production is relatively large [52]. - It is expected that the annual processing fee range of styrene in 2026 will remain at a medium - to - high level, mainly because the high - inventory problem of pure benzene needs time to be solved, and the negative feedback of styrene's downstream 3S is postponed [53]. 3.3.2 The Overseas Production of Styrene Is Low, Focus on the Export Increment in 2026 - Global styrene capacity has been exiting, and overseas production has been shrinking. The low overseas production in 2025 is beneficial to the operation and profit of domestic styrene [55]. - Against the background of low overseas supply, China's styrene industry chain exports have gradually increased. In 2025, the exports of styrene, ABS, and PS increased year - on - year, and direct exports are expected to become more normalized [57]. 3.3.3 The Downstream 3S Maintains High Apparent Demand at Low Prices, Focus on the Late Negative Feedback in the First Half of 2026 - In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of styrene was 13.7%. The downstream 3S maintained rapid growth due to capacity expansion, substitution effects, and stable exports [61]. - Currently, the downstream factories have high inventory but low actual pressure. However, in the first half of 2026, if the peak season demand cannot drive inventory transfer, the industry chain may face negative feedback [67][78]. - 2026 is a year of transformation for the strength of domestic and export demand for home appliances. If domestic demand policies do not work, the 3S with high inventory may face pressure in the first half of the year, and the market may improve in the second half [79]. 3.4 Other Demands for Pure Benzene: Capacity Reaches the Peak, and the Growth Rates of the Four Downstream Sectors Decline 3.4.1 The Apparent Demand Growth Rate of the Four Small Downstream Sectors Is Weaker than That of Styrene - In 2025, the demand proportion of styrene recovered, while that of aniline and phenol decreased significantly. The growth rates of the four small downstream sectors were weaker than that of styrene, mainly due to the end of the production cycle and weak domestic demand [85]. 3.4.2 It Is Expected that the Growth Rates of Caprolactam and Aniline Will Remain at 5% - 6% in 2026 - It is expected that the overall demand growth rate of caprolactam in 2026 will be about 5%. The growth rate in 2025 was lower than expected. In 2026, factors such as profit repair and potential domestic demand recovery will support its growth [88]. - It is expected that the apparent demand of aniline in 2026 will be 3.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2025, the demand was lower than expected. In 2026, it is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic demand and increased direct exports [91]. 3.4.3 Phenol Will Have a Major Maintenance Year in 2026, and the Annual Apparent Demand Is Expected to Increase by 2.4% Year - on - Year - In 2025, the apparent demand of phenol was flat year - on - year. In 2026, due to maintenance in the first half of the year and new device production in the second half, the annual apparent demand is expected to be 5.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [93]. 3.4.4 It Is Expected that the Growth Rate of Adipic Acid Will Remain at + 3.7% in 2026 - In 2025, adipic acid and its downstream industry chain prices and profits were low. In 2026, with only 180,000 tons of new production planned, the annual apparent demand is expected to increase by 3.7% year - on - year [95].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2026 年 PVC 上半年趋势仍有压力，下半年或有减产驱动。因冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修， 其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后。 此外，PVC 仓单仍处于高位，未来多头接货压力大。整体看，PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变，但考虑烧碱利润也 持续下滑，氯碱综合利润处于历史低位水平，明年或可期待供应端在检修旺季的减产力度。 报告导读： 我们的逻辑：1、PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短期不 宜追空。2、烧碱供需格局明显走弱，利润被持续压缩，产业链"以碱补氯"格局难持续。对企业而言，年内生产目标基本 完成，冬季不检修的情况下，可能需要承受较长时间亏损，2026 年春季和夏季检修力度可能会超过今年同期水平。3、PVC 出 口市场竞争压力增大，出口需求增速或放缓。内需来看，与地产相关的 PVC 下游制品需求 ...