1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene should be watched for a bottom - reversal, with a weak start and a strong finish. In 2026, the three factors causing weakness in 2025 are expected to improve marginally, but the short - term contradiction of "weak chemical reality" remains prominent. The price is expected to be under pressure in Q1 2026, and there may be a chance of a bottom - rebound in Q2. The second half of the year depends on domestic macro - policies. The whole year is expected to show a wide - range shock with a lower - then - higher center of gravity [3][98]. - The processing fee center of styrene is expected to remain at a medium - to - high level. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain in 2026 supports its price. However, if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 fails to meet expectations or export momentum weakens, the industry chain may face a late negative feedback [4][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Pure Benzene and Styrene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 Pure Benzene Price Trend Review - In Q1 2025, due to high import volume, downstream hidden inventory pressure, and downstream losses, the pure benzene price was under pressure and showed a weak shock pattern [6]. - In the middle and late Q2, the price rebounded and stabilized due to the recovery of downstream operations, spring inspections, and the progress of tariff negotiations [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the price fluctuated downward. In Q3, it was in a shock pattern, and in Q4, it further declined due to cost and supply - demand collapses [7][8]. 3.1.2 2025 Styrene Price Review - In Q1 2025, the styrene market was weak. Although there was cost support and optimistic demand expectations at the beginning, the price declined after the Spring Festival due to weak downstream replenishment and looser cost support [14]. - In Q2, affected by international political turmoil, the price showed a shock pattern, with significant fluctuations due to tariff policies, trade negotiations, and cost changes [15]. - In Q3, supply increased while demand decreased, and the price trended weakly. Although there was a short - term price increase in late August, high inventory led to a price decline [16]. - In November, the processing fee was quickly repaired, and the basis gradually strengthened in December [17][18]. 3.2 Pure Benzene: Weak Chemical Reality vs. Strong Gasoline - Blending Expectation, Focus on Bottom - Reversal Opportunity in Q2 2026 3.2.1 Low Valuation, Marginal Supply Contraction, Pure Benzene to Gradually Find the Bottom and Rebound after Q2 2026 - In 2025, the weakness of pure benzene was due to concentrated hoarding, unfulfilled gasoline - blending expectations, and weak domestic demand [21]. - In 2026, the three factors are expected to improve marginally. The consensus hoarding expectation has weakened, gasoline - blending expectations are strong with expected import reduction, and the downstream demand price elasticity has increased [24][26][30]. - Overall, pure benzene is in a pattern of being weak in Q1 and strengthening in Q2. The performance in the second half of the year depends on domestic demand policies [32]. 3.2.2 In 2026, the Domestic Industrial Chain of Pure Benzene Has Little Contradiction in Production, Focus on Maintenance Rhythm and Overseas Capacity Exit - In 2026, the domestic production pattern is not the main contradiction for pure benzene. The core is the operating rate of existing devices. The new production of downstream products slows down, and the new production of pure benzene is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [34]. - The key for pure benzene supply is the maintenance situation in 2026. The maintenance is less in the first half and more in the second half of the year. The private refineries mainly conduct maintenance in the first half, and the major refineries in the fourth quarter [37]. - In Asia, the production progress of pure benzene is greater than that of downstream products in 2026. Overseas devices in Europe and South Korea face the risk of exit, which may ease the high - inventory pressure [40][41]. 3.2.3 Gasoline - Blending Logic Eases the High Import Pressure of Pure Benzene, Focus on the Continuity of PX - BZ - High imports were the core problem for the weakness of pure benzene in 2025. In 2026, China's pure benzene imports are expected to decrease. The annual import is expected to be 5.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [43]. - The realization of the pure benzene logistics window between the US and Asia depends on factors such as the overseas supply recovery, the negotiation of contracts between Chinese downstream factories and overseas suppliers, and the overseas downstream device exit progress [47]. - PX - BZ has long - term driving factors. It is recommended to buy the spread after the winter cold wave in the US causes an aromatic hydrocarbon callback [49]. 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Fee Center Moves Up 3.3.1 In 2026, There Is Little New Production of Styrene, and the Processing Fee Remains at a Medium - to - High Level - In 2026, the new production of styrene is limited, with only 600,000 tons of Huajin Aramco to be put into production. The downstream production is relatively large [52]. - It is expected that the annual processing fee range of styrene in 2026 will remain at a medium - to - high level, mainly because the high - inventory problem of pure benzene needs time to be solved, and the negative feedback of styrene's downstream 3S is postponed [53]. 3.3.2 The Overseas Production of Styrene Is Low, Focus on the Export Increment in 2026 - Global styrene capacity has been exiting, and overseas production has been shrinking. The low overseas production in 2025 is beneficial to the operation and profit of domestic styrene [55]. - Against the background of low overseas supply, China's styrene industry chain exports have gradually increased. In 2025, the exports of styrene, ABS, and PS increased year - on - year, and direct exports are expected to become more normalized [57]. 3.3.3 The Downstream 3S Maintains High Apparent Demand at Low Prices, Focus on the Late Negative Feedback in the First Half of 2026 - In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of styrene was 13.7%. The downstream 3S maintained rapid growth due to capacity expansion, substitution effects, and stable exports [61]. - Currently, the downstream factories have high inventory but low actual pressure. However, in the first half of 2026, if the peak season demand cannot drive inventory transfer, the industry chain may face negative feedback [67][78]. - 2026 is a year of transformation for the strength of domestic and export demand for home appliances. If domestic demand policies do not work, the 3S with high inventory may face pressure in the first half of the year, and the market may improve in the second half [79]. 3.4 Other Demands for Pure Benzene: Capacity Reaches the Peak, and the Growth Rates of the Four Downstream Sectors Decline 3.4.1 The Apparent Demand Growth Rate of the Four Small Downstream Sectors Is Weaker than That of Styrene - In 2025, the demand proportion of styrene recovered, while that of aniline and phenol decreased significantly. The growth rates of the four small downstream sectors were weaker than that of styrene, mainly due to the end of the production cycle and weak domestic demand [85]. 3.4.2 It Is Expected that the Growth Rates of Caprolactam and Aniline Will Remain at 5% - 6% in 2026 - It is expected that the overall demand growth rate of caprolactam in 2026 will be about 5%. The growth rate in 2025 was lower than expected. In 2026, factors such as profit repair and potential domestic demand recovery will support its growth [88]. - It is expected that the apparent demand of aniline in 2026 will be 3.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2025, the demand was lower than expected. In 2026, it is expected to benefit from the recovery of domestic demand and increased direct exports [91]. 3.4.3 Phenol Will Have a Major Maintenance Year in 2026, and the Annual Apparent Demand Is Expected to Increase by 2.4% Year - on - Year - In 2025, the apparent demand of phenol was flat year - on - year. In 2026, due to maintenance in the first half of the year and new device production in the second half, the annual apparent demand is expected to be 5.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [93]. 3.4.4 It Is Expected that the Growth Rate of Adipic Acid Will Remain at + 3.7% in 2026 - In 2025, adipic acid and its downstream industry chain prices and profits were low. In 2026, with only 180,000 tons of new production planned, the annual apparent demand is expected to increase by 3.7% year - on - year [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the PVC market will face pressure in the first half of the year and may see production cuts in the second half. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the PVC market is difficult to change in the short term, but the supply - side production cuts during the peak maintenance season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and the historically low level of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2][50]. - In the long - term trend, PVC valuation is under pressure, but the absolute valuation is at a historical low. Attention should be paid to the seasonal valuation repair market driven by production cuts. Before the production cuts start, the month - spread arbitrage should be treated as a reverse spread. The key time nodes are around the Spring Festival, the start of spring maintenance in March, and the peak - season maintenance from June to August [3][51][53]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 PVC Trend Review - **Period from January to March**: The PVC market was dominated by the weak reality of "strong supply and weak demand". Supply increased due to high production enthusiasm of northwest chlor - alkali integrated enterprises, while demand was weak because of the sluggish real - estate market. Both spot and futures prices declined [7]. - **Period from April to mid - May**: Driven by macro events and market sentiment, the PVC futures market fluctuated wildly. After a short - term rise due to Sino - US reconciliation, the market returned to a weak fundamental - driven state [8]. - **Period from June to August**: After a sharp decline, the market entered a low - level oscillation stage. The rebound was driven by low - valuation support, macro policies, and seasonal factors, but the supply - demand contradiction remained prominent. The market later returned to a downward trend [9]. - **Period from September to present**: The "golden September and silver October" peak - season expectations failed. Under the pressure of high production, high inventory, and high warehouse receipts, the PVC price continued to fall, hitting a new low for the year. Subsequently, it entered a low - level consolidation stage [10]. 3.2 2026 PVC Supply Pressure High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half, Production Cut Driven to Be the Annual Main Line - **No New PVC Capacity in 2026, Reducing Supply Pressure**: In 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 22.3203 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%. The new capacity in 2025 was expected to be 2.2 million tons, mainly from ethylene - based processes. In 2026, there will be no new PVC capacity except for the 300,000 - ton capacity of Zhejiang Jiahua reaching mass production, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity expansion [13][17]. - **PVC Profit in Loss, but Difficult to Cut Production in Winter**: Due to overcapacity, intensified market competition, and weak downstream demand, the PVC industry profit has been continuously compressed since October 2025. However, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali device maintenance, and the "alkali - for - chlorine" model in 2025 also increased the difficulty of PVC production cuts. By the end of 2025, the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit reached a new low in recent years [20][22]. - **Social Inventory Higher Year - on - Year, High Warehouse Receipts Pressuring Near - Month Contracts**: The current absolute amount of PVC social inventory is at the highest level in recent years. Since 2022, affected by the real - estate market, the downstream demand has been weak, and the inventory has been mainly accumulated in the middle - stream. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% month - on - month to 1.0589 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.77%. As of December 5, 2025, the PVC warehouse receipts were 115,756 lots, totaling 578,780 tons [24][25][27]. 3.3 2026 PVC Demand Difficult to Recover, Export Growth Rate May Slow Down - **Macro: Policy "Bottom - Support" and Structural Transformation, Limited Space for Domestic Demand Expansion**: In 2026, China's macro - economic policy is to "bottom - support" rather than "strongly stimulate". Fiscal policy focuses on "resolving the stock" rather than "creating the increment". The PVC domestic demand will operate in a relatively low - level range [31]. - **Real - Estate Downturn Drag Reduced Marginally, Entering the "L - shaped" Bottom Stabilization Period**: In 2026, the impact of the real - estate market on PVC demand will change from "accelerated downward drag" to "bottom - range drag". The decline in real - estate sales and investment will narrow, and the PVC downstream product enterprises are adjusting their product structures. However, the overall real - estate investment scale is still shrinking, and the PVC domestic demand will maintain a low - level oscillation [32][33]. - **2025 PVC Domestic Demand Still Under Pressure**: In 2025, the start - up of PVC downstream products was divided. The start - up of hard products such as pipes and profiles was lower year - on - year, while the start - up of soft products such as films was higher year - on - year. In 2026, the domestic policy will support the demand for PVC soft products [41][45]. - **2026 Export to Be the Key Variable for Demand Growth, but Growth Rate May Slow Down**: In 2026, PVC export is expected to maintain strong resilience. Global industrial chain reconstruction and emerging - market capital expenditure will create new demand, and China's PVC supply chain has cost and stability advantages. However, the year - on - year growth rate may slow down due to the high base. In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 312,100 tons, and the cumulative export from January to October was 3.2338 million tons [47][48].