Core Insights - The upcoming "super long golden week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to see a record high of 19.2 million passengers in civil aviation, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China [1][4]. Group 1: Ticket Price Dynamics - The ticket prices for flights during this holiday period are experiencing significant fluctuations, resembling stock market trading, with travelers uncertain about when to purchase tickets [2][3]. - Some routes have seen substantial price drops close to the travel date, while others have experienced notable price increases, leading to mixed experiences among travelers [2][3]. - The average ticket price for the upcoming holiday is relatively high, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% to 841 yuan as of September 14, and a further increase of 9.2% to 804 yuan by September 28 [4]. Group 2: Travel Demand and Capacity - The overall demand for air travel is expected to reach new heights, with a 3.6% increase in passenger volume compared to last year, driven by the extended holiday and high tourism interest [4]. - Major air routes between key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu are anticipated to see the highest passenger throughput, with over 17 million expected to travel through ten major international aviation hubs [4]. Group 3: International Flight Trends - The number of international flights is also on the rise, with an estimated 16,000 flights planned for the holiday, recovering to 94.1% of 2019 levels, primarily focused on Southeast Asia and East Asia [5]. - New direct international routes have been launched, enhancing travel options for outbound tourism, with high passenger loads reported on popular routes to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [5].

Core Insights - The upcoming "super long golden week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to see a record high passenger transport volume of 19.2 million, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China [1][4] - The airline ticket pricing has become unpredictable, resembling stock trading, with significant fluctuations causing travelers to hesitate in their purchasing decisions [2][3] Ticket Price Trends - This year, ticket prices have shown both increases and decreases, unlike the previous year's significant price drops. Popular routes have experienced price reductions, while others have seen substantial increases [2][3] - For example, the price for the Wuhan-Kunming route dropped from 1,750 yuan to 850 yuan, and the Shanghai-Harbin route fell from 1,600 yuan to 900 yuan [2] Demand and Pricing Analysis - The average ticket price for the upcoming holiday period is relatively high, with pre-sale prices averaging 841 yuan, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, and 804 yuan as of September 28, a 9.2% increase [4] - The high ticket prices are attributed to strong demand, with a projected 3.6% increase in passenger transport volume compared to last year [4] International Flight Activity - The number of international flights is also expected to be robust, with 16,000 flights planned for the holiday, recovering to 94.1% of 2019 levels. Southeast Asia and East Asia are the most popular destinations [5] - New direct flights have been launched, enhancing travel options for passengers, including routes to Riyadh, Moscow, and Barcelona [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to see a significant increase in domestic and international flight bookings, with a notable rise in search interest for travel destinations compared to last year [3][6][11]. Domestic Flight Booking Trends - As of early September, domestic flight bookings for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays have exceeded 3.26 million, with a daily average increase of over 26% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average price of domestic flights during the National Day period remains stable compared to last year, showing a pattern of higher prices at the beginning and end of the holiday, with lower prices in the middle [4][6]. - The top ten cities for domestic flight searches include Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai, indicating strong leisure and vacation attributes [6]. International Flight Booking Trends - International flight bookings have also seen a significant increase, with over 1.16 million tickets booked, reflecting a 15% rise in daily average bookings compared to last year [3]. - Popular international destinations for the upcoming holiday include Seoul, Bangkok, and Tokyo, with a search interest increase of over 60% for international flights [11]. - There are reports of extremely low prices for international flights, with some tickets priced below 200 yuan, indicating a competitive pricing environment [9][11]. Price Monitoring and Market Dynamics - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has emphasized the need for price monitoring and regulation to prevent excessive price drops and maintain market order, particularly during peak travel times [8]. - The trend of price drops observed in previous holidays, such as during the May Day holiday, has led to increased scrutiny and regulation by authorities to stabilize prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in airfares during the summer travel season, highlighting the unexpected price fluctuations that have left consumers confused and frustrated [1][19]. Group 1: Airfare Trends - Many consumers anticipated stable airfare prices for summer travel but were surprised by substantial price drops, particularly for flights from Shanghai to Japan [2][3]. - Specific examples of reduced fares include flights to Osaka for 991 yuan, Tokyo for 1700 yuan, and Busan for 885 yuan, showcasing the dramatic decrease in ticket prices [4][5][6]. Group 2: Airline Supply and Demand Dynamics - Airlines have increased flight capacity significantly, especially on popular international routes, leading to an oversupply of seats and subsequent price reductions [23][24][27]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with low-cost carriers and mainstream airlines engaging in price wars, particularly on domestic and regional routes [32]. Group 3: Financial Challenges for Airlines - Major airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have issued profit warnings, indicating expected losses ranging from 12 billion to 22 billion yuan due to declining consumer demand and increased competition [30][31]. - The financial strain on airlines is exacerbated by a shift in consumer behavior, with more travelers opting for budget-friendly options and high-speed rail alternatives [31][39]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The article notes a shift in consumer sentiment, where travelers are becoming more cautious and price-sensitive, leading to a tendency to wait for better deals rather than booking early [41][44]. - This change in behavior has resulted in a cycle of distrust between consumers and airlines, complicating revenue management for airlines and leading to a reliance on last-minute fare reductions [50][56].