Group 1 - The report indicates that in August, the market may return to a barbell structure, with an increase in commodity asset allocation and a marginal rise in risk asset allocation [2][4][6] - The updated BL model suggests that the allocation of risk assets will continue to show relative strength, with a marginal increase in commodity asset positions and a slight decrease in stock assets [4][8] - The report highlights that the A-share market style is expected to shift towards low valuation, weak profitability, and small-cap stocks, with a potential short-term recovery in the barbell style [4][20][23] Group 2 - The report notes that the high profitability and high valuation factors performed strongly in July, aligning with previous predictions [13][20] - It is anticipated that the market will face a phase of adjustment in August, particularly for the profitability factor, which has rebounded quickly but may be overvalued [20][23] - The report emphasizes that the focus for the upcoming month should be on the North China 50 and Shanghai Composite Index, as they align with the predicted market style [23][24]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the asset allocation for August shows a marginal increase in risk assets, with a corresponding decrease in safe-haven assets. The allocation to U.S. stocks and commodities has been raised, while U.S. Treasuries and dollar allocations have been reduced [3][5][6] - The A-share market is expected to revert to a barbell structure in August, with a shift towards low valuation, weak profitability, and small-cap stocks becoming the dominant market styles [9][14][16] - The report highlights that the high profitability and valuation factors observed in July may face a phase of adjustment, with the market likely to experience a temporary recovery in the barbell style [14][16] Group 2 - The report's analysis based on the improved BL model suggests that the relative strength of risk assets is likely to continue, with commodity asset allocations being increased and safe-haven asset allocations being reduced compared to July [3][5][9] - The report anticipates that the internal dynamics of risk assets will show a slight decrease in stock asset allocations, while commodity asset allocations will see an increase. This aligns with the forecast of a "two up, one down" trend in the A-share market for August [5][9][14] - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment, including monetary and credit conditions, will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, with expectations of a stable monetary environment and a gradual recovery in credit conditions [14][16]

规模方面，国企红利ETF近2周规模增长159.66万元，实现显著增长，新增规模位居可比基金1/2。 数据显示，截至2025年4月30日，中证国有企业红利指数(000824)前十大权重股分别为中远海控(601919)、冀中能源(000937)、渝农商行(601077)、上海银行 (601229)、成都银行(601838)、山煤国际(600546)、粤高速A(000429)、中国神华(601088)、山西焦煤(000983)、沪农商行(601825)，前十大权重股合计占比 15.18%。 Wind数据显示： 份额方面，国企红利ETF近2周份额增长240.00万份，实现显著增长，新增份额位居可比基金1/2。 从资金净流入方面来看，国企红利ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得224.57万元净流入，合计"吸金"544.43万元，日均净流入达181.48万元。 浦银国际最新研究报告提出，当前正处于美国与部分国家关税谈判阶段，不确定性大幅上升，将加大市场波动。因此，在市场情绪走弱时，可加大杠铃结构 中红利端的配置权重，不但能提供稳定的现金流、抵御市场波动，还能提供额外的收益。 国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红 ...