Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q2 2025 performance was strong, but the stock price fell nearly 10% after the earnings report due to lower-than-expected future guidance and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16][20]. Financial Performance Overview - In Q2 2025, ASML reported total net sales of €7.7 billion (approximately ¥642.13 billion), at the upper end of the forecast range [5][15]. - This figure represents a year-over-year increase of 23.21%, but a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 0.646% from Q1 [5][15]. - Gross margin reached 53.7%, exceeding the company's guidance of 51%-53% [5][8]. - Net profit was €2.29 billion (approximately ¥191.81 billion), a year-over-year increase of 44.9%, but a slight decline of 2.76% from Q1 [5][15]. Business Composition - Sales from lithography systems accounted for €5.6 billion (approximately 73% of total sales), a year-over-year increase of 17.5% [6]. - Service revenue was €2.1 billion (approximately 27% of total sales), showing a year-over-year growth of 41.4% [6]. Orders and Equipment Sales - New orders in Q2 amounted to €5.541 billion, a significant increase from €3.936 billion in Q1 [6][15]. - EUV lithography machine orders totaled €2.3 billion, accounting for approximately 42% of total orders [6][15]. Factors Driving Gross Margin - The CFO highlighted three main reasons for the better-than-expected gross margin: growth in upgrade service revenue, lower one-time costs, and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [8]. - Despite the dilution effect on gross margin from high-NA EUV system revenue recognition, the overall gross margin remained high at 53.7% [8]. Technological Progress and Market Dynamics - ASML delivered its first TWINSCAN EXE:5200B system, marking a significant advancement in high-NA EUV lithography technology [9]. - Logic chips accounted for 84% of new orders, driven primarily by AI demand, while memory chips made up 16% [10]. Financial Details and Capital Operations - In Q2, ASML repurchased approximately €1.4 billion in stock, with a total buyback plan of €5.8 billion from 2022 to 2025 [11]. - A mid-term dividend of €1.60 per share is scheduled for distribution on August 6, 2025 [11]. Management Comments and Future Outlook - The CEO stated that Q2 performance met expectations, driven by growth in upgrade services and cost reductions [13]. - For Q3 2025, ASML expects net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin of 50%-52% [13]. - The company anticipates a 15% revenue growth for the full year compared to 2024, targeting a gross margin of around 52% [13]. Market Reaction and Stock Price Analysis - Following the earnings report, ASML's stock price fell by 8.33%, closing at $754.45, with trading volume significantly above average [16][17]. - The decline was attributed to lower-than-expected future guidance and uncertainties regarding growth prospects for 2026 [18][20]. Geopolitical and Economic Challenges - The company faces uncertainties due to U.S. export controls on the Chinese semiconductor industry, impacting ASML's business in China [21][31]. - The gross margin forecast for Q3 indicates a potential decline, raising concerns about the sustainability of profitability [22]. Conclusion - ASML's Q2 2025 results reflect strong performance, but the stock price drop indicates market concerns about future growth and geopolitical risks [29][30]. - The company remains a leader in the semiconductor equipment sector, but investors should monitor developments in geopolitical policies and market conditions closely [32].