Core Insights - The article discusses a "nuclear renaissance" driven by global energy transition and decarbonization, highlighting a significant turning point in the uranium market, which is expected to enter a decade-long bull market due to structural demand and limited supply [1][2] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - The demand for uranium is projected to increase significantly, with global consumption expected to grow by over 50% by 2035, driven by a resurgence in nuclear energy as countries aim to double their nuclear power generation capacity by 2050 [1][4] - The annual compound growth rate (CAGR) for global uranium demand is forecasted to reach 3.6% from 2025 to 2030 and further accelerate to 4.9% from 2030 to 2035, with China and India contributing approximately three-quarters of this growth [4][5] - Emerging technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), are anticipated to create new demand opportunities, particularly in high-energy industries like AI data centers, enhancing the narrative of a nuclear revival [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The uranium supply is highly concentrated, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia accounting for about 75% of global production, and the top five producers controlling approximately 75% of the market [15] - Major producers have shifted their strategy to prioritize value over volume, leading to a reluctance to increase production without sustainable long-term contracts and adequate pricing [15][8] - The supply growth is expected to average around 4% from 2025 to 2035, but significant risks exist due to regulatory challenges and financing difficulties for new projects [15][8] Group 3: Market Imbalance - A supply-demand imbalance is anticipated, with the uranium market expected to experience a mild shortage from 2025 to 2029, escalating into a "persistent and expanding deficit" in the 2030s as demand outpaces supply [10][16] - The current "contract stalemate" is characterized by utilities hesitating to sign long-term contracts due to uncertainties in the downstream nuclear fuel cycle, while producers are unwilling to commit to new supplies without long-term orders [16] - The article notes that approximately two-thirds of global utility demand for uranium over the next twenty years (around 3 billion pounds) remains uncontracted, indicating an impending large-scale inventory replenishment cycle [16]

巴克莱认为，铀市场供应端高度集中，哈萨克斯坦占全球产量近40%，俄罗斯控制约40%加工产能，地缘政治风险显著；需求端受核能超级周期推动， 预计2040年全球铀需求将增长124%至3.91亿磅。铀供应难以快速响应，最早2032年将现供应赤字。 全球核能复兴浪潮正将铀推至多年牛市的起点。 11月4日，巴克莱在最新研报中称，铀市场正迎来结构性供需失衡，地缘政治风险与核能超级周期的双重推动下，多年铀牛市的条件已经成熟。当前的 市场格局呈现出两大核心特征： 极度集中的供应端和需求激增的需求端 ，这两者共同指向了 一个多年的铀牛市 。 研报称， 铀供应的地理集中度创造了显著的地缘政治风险。 仅哈萨克斯坦就占据全球铀产量的近40%，而俄罗斯控制约40%的铀加工和浓缩产能。这 种供应链集中度在地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，正迫使各国重新审视铀供应安全。 同时， 需求端的增长动力来自核能超级周期的全面启动。 世界核协会预测，全球铀需求将从2024年的1.75亿磅激增至2040年的3.91亿磅，增幅达 124%。美国核能重启、中国核电扩张以及小型模块化反应堆的兴起，共同构成了这一需求增长的核心驱动力。 巴克莱强调，市场定价已开始 ...

全球核能复兴浪潮正将铀推至多年牛市的起点。 11月4日，据追风交易台消息，巴克莱在最新研报中称，铀市场正迎来结构性供需失衡，地缘政治风险与核能超级周期的双重推动下，多年铀牛市的条 件已经成熟。当前的市场格局呈现出两大核心特征：极度集中的供应端和需求激增的需求端，这两者共同指向了一个多年的铀牛市。 研报称，铀供应的地理集中度创造了显著的地缘政治风险。仅哈萨克斯坦就占据全球铀产量的近40%，而俄罗斯控制约40%的铀加工和浓缩产能。这种 供应链集中度在地缘政治紧张局势加剧的背景下，正迫使各国重新审视铀供应安全。 同时，需求端的增长动力来自核能超级周期的全面启动。世界核协会预测，全球铀需求将从2024年的1.75亿磅激增至2040年的3.91亿磅，增幅达124%。 美国核能重启、中国核电扩张以及小型模块化反应堆的兴起，共同构成了这一需求增长的核心驱动力。 巴克莱强调，市场定价已开始反映这一趋势。全球铀指数今年迄今上涨60%，显著跑赢全球股指的19%涨幅。美国相关铀企业表现尤为突出，Cameco 上涨108%，Centrus Energy飙升487%，显示投资者对供应链重构机遇的高度认可。 高度集中的供应格局：地缘政治 ...