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铂钯数据日报-20260123
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 02:39
Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on platinum and palladium by the Research Institute of Guomao Futures, focusing on price, inventory, and market analysis [2][3] 1. Price Information Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 633.85 yuan/g, up 0.85% from the previous value [4] - Platinum (99.95%) spot price: 618.5 yuan/g, down 0.56% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): -15.35 yuan/g, up 136.15% [4] - Lithium futures main contract closing price: 483.75 yuan/g, down 0.42% [4] - Lithium (99.95%) spot price: 464.5 yuan/g, down 1.59% [4] - Lithium basis (spot - futures): -19.25 yuan/g, up 39.49% [4] International Prices - London spot platinum: 2468.754 dollars/ounce, up 1.39% [4] - London spot palladium: 1853.585 dollars/ounce, up 0.10% [4] - NYMEX platinum: 2468.9 dollars/ounce, up 1.27% [4] - NYMEX palladium: 1883.5 dollars/ounce, down 0.32% [4] Exchange Rate and Price Differences - Dollar/CNY central parity rate: 7.0019, up 0.01% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum: 5.85 yuan/g, down 36.16% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum: 5.81 yuan/g, down 30.76% [4] - Difference between Guangzhou lithium and London palladium: 12.23 yuan/g, down 17.26% [5] - Difference between Guangzhou lithium and NYMEX palladium: 4.62 yuan/g, down 10.77% [5] 2. Ratio and Inventory Information Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3103, up 0.0165 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3319, up 0.0170 [5] Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 675,766 ounces, up 1.71% [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216,266 ounces, down 0.18% [5] Position - NYMEX total platinum position: 78,337, down 0.90% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum: 18,110, down 2.85% [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: 19,483, up 0.69% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium: 579, up 111.57% [5] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Market Analysis - On January 22, platinum and palladium opened lower and then rebounded, narrowing the decline. The PT2606 contract fell 0.92% to 63.85 yuan/g, and the PD2606 contract fell 1.9% to 483.75 yuan/g [6] - At the macro level, the Greenland crisis has eased, weakening market risk - aversion sentiment, which once suppressed platinum and palladium prices. However, due to high market uncertainty and weak US bond yields, there is still support for platinum and palladium prices [6] - Fundamentally, the US has decided to postpone imposing import tariffs on key minerals, alleviating the tariff risk for platinum and palladium. If the tariff risk decreases in the future, platinum and palladium inventories may shift from the US to non - US regions, which may ease the tight spot situation and suppress the upward space of platinum and palladium prices in the short term [6] Strategy - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to changes in New York inventories [6] - In the long term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a relatively loose supply for palladium, the strategy can be to unilaterally allocate platinum at low prices or choose the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]
危机转折 黄金暴涨又暴跌!
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-22 11:52
Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices closed up 1.4% at $4830.56, reaching a record high of $4888.59 before dropping to $4755.55 after Trump's statement [1] - Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4830 following a wave of selling in the Asian market [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices rose across the board, with the Dow Jones up 1.21%, S&P 500 up 1.16%, and Nasdaq up 1.18% [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Policy - Trump announced he will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, indicating a framework for future agreements regarding Greenland [3] - Despite temporary relief for Europe, there are concerns about Trump's unpredictable policy shifts [6][7] - Economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates this quarter, with a significant shift in expectations regarding potential rate cuts [8][9] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - Investors are advised to focus on the upcoming U.S. PCE data and initial jobless claims [10] - The market anticipates the November core PCE price index to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% and a month-over-month increase of 0.2% [11] Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. is reportedly seeking to undermine the Cuban government by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela [16] - Tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with the U.S. deploying additional military forces in response to heightened relations with Iran [18] - Iran has issued warnings against any military actions targeting its leadership, indicating readiness for retaliation [20] Group 6: U.S. Withdrawal from WHO - The U.S. has officially withdrawn from the World Health Organization after a year of the application process, but still owes $260 million in dues [21]