1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are supportive, and cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short - term. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is likely to continue range - bound oscillations, while the domestic cotton market's fundamentals remain strong [8][29]. - The sales progress of cotton is still fast, and the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year bring certain expectations for cotton consumption, supporting the upward movement of the fundamentals. However, considering the previous reaction of bullish factors and the high internal - external price difference, and the lack of obvious bullish drivers in US cotton in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term [41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the US cotton price is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton accounted for 94.6% of the estimated annual US cotton production, with a year - on - year slowdown of 8%. The weekly deliverable ratio was 75.4%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher year - on - year. The US cotton listing inspection is nearing the end, and the production estimate was slightly lowered in January [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 8, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 77,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 247% and an 89% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 35,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC Data**: As of January 13, 2026, the net long rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 15.17% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points) [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 17, the cotton planting in the 2025/26 season in Brazil was 36.34% completed, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, 2.8 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 13.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - **India**: As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 851,000 tons, basically the same year - on - year. The textile mills' procurement was 750,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decline, and the unsold new cotton was 74,000 tons, a 5% year - on - year decline [8]. - **Global Situation**: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are not significant. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a month - on - month reduction of 80,000 tons; the total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of the week of January 15, the national ginning mill operating rate dropped to 36.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. As of January 21, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of lint was 7.06 million tons, and the cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.8 million tons. In December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 99,600 tons [29]. - **Demand Side**: As of January 22, the cumulative sales of lint were 4.409 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years, an increase of 2.41 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. As of January 15, the operating load of spinning mills in mainstream areas was 64.6%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. As of January 16, the gray fabric operating load increased to 48.7. As of the week of January 8, the cotton inventory of spinning mills in mainstream areas was equivalent to 24.59 days of stock [29]. - **Comprehensive Outlook**: The supply side has little change, and the expected reduction in the cotton planting area in the new year supports the market. The demand side shows a fast sales progress and increased downstream stocking willingness. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change little. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly upward in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The fast cotton sales progress, the easing of Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity in the new year support the upward movement of the fundamentals. Affected by the macro - sentiment, the cotton price has significantly corrected, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [41]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: It is expected that the US cotton price will likely range - bound oscillate in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton's fundamentals remain strong. One can consider building long positions on dips [43]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [43]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42]. 3.4 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal - External Price Difference**: Relevant data on the internal - external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January are presented [46][47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Information on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory is provided [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton and cotton yarn are presented, including the basis of US cotton, the basis of January, May, and September contracts of cotton, and the basis between C32S cotton yarn spot and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn [52].

持续增仓， 多空博弈加剧 棉花周报 2025/12/13 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格窄幅震荡，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报63.83美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.12美分/磅， 跌幅0.19%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差报-1.1美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.04美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格小幅上涨，截至周五郑棉5月 合约收盘价报13850元/吨，较之前一周上涨130元/吨，涨幅0.95%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报15062元/吨，较之前一周上涨40元/ 吨。基差报1215元/吨，较之前一周下跌90元/吨。郑棉1-5月差报-15元/吨，较之前一周下跌45元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至12月12日当周，纺纱厂开机率为65.5%，环比前一个周持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices have shown a strong upward movement recently, but there are no substantial factors to support a sustained bullish trend in the market [1][3][4] Supply and Demand - Domestic cotton inventory in Xinjiang continues to decline, and transportation costs have decreased, leading to increased basis quotes from traders [1] - The demand from textile factories is weak, with a significant amount of cotton (estimated over 400,000 tons) yet to be priced, which may provide short-term support for cotton prices [1][2] - Weaker terminal demand has resulted in rising inventory levels for spinning enterprises, causing a decrease in their operating rates [2][4] Market Outlook - Institutions like Everbright Futures suggest that the likelihood of cotton prices maintaining a strong performance is low due to weak demand and sufficient inventory levels across the supply chain [3][4] - The market is currently facing pressure from a strong resistance level around 13,620 yuan/ton, which has been tested multiple times [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with potential risks accumulating due to declining spinning rates and rumors of increased import cotton quotas [5]