1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Palm oil is expected to bottom out first and then strengthen as it is about to enter the production - reduction season. The short - term trend is slightly weak and bottom - building, while the medium - to - long - term trend is upward. The support level of the palm oil main 01 contract is around 8500 - 8600, and the resistance level is around 9300 - 9350. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [1][113]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Futures Market Review - Factors affecting palm oil prices include the promotion of Indonesia's B40 policy, Sino - Canadian trade relations, changes in palm oil's cost - effectiveness, production and inventory in the origin, international crude oil prices, and the US biodiesel policy. These factors have led to fluctuations in palm oil prices, including price increases, decreases, and continuous weakening [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic and International Supply - Demand Situation 3.2.1 Production - Malaysian palm oil production: High - frequency data shows continuous production increases. From the 1st to the 20th of October, production increased by 10.77% compared to the same period in September. From the 1st to the 25th of October, the yield per unit area increased by 1.63% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. However, due to environmental regulations, land constraints, and an aging tree population, the growth rate of the planting area has slowed down, and overall production is below 20 million tons. The production increase season window is narrowing, and production may not continue to rise after November [12][13]. - Indonesian palm oil production: As of August 2025, the crude palm oil production reached 35.65 million tons, a 13% increase year - on - year. The total palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, was 39.03 million tons, also a 13% increase year - on - year. It is estimated that the annual production will increase by about 10%, reaching 56 - 57 million tons [18]. 3.2.2 Consumption - Indonesian palm oil consumption: From January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption was 16.406 million tons, a 5.37% increase year - on - year. Among them, edible consumption was 6.579 million tons, a 1.29% decrease year - on - year, and biodiesel consumption was 8.343 million tons, a 12.42% increase year - on - year. It is expected that if B50 is implemented in 2026, biodiesel consumption will increase by about 3.5 million tons [33][37]. - Domestic palm oil consumption: The cost - effectiveness of palm oil is poor, and the spot and futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil are inverted. As a result, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and its market share is occupied by competing oils such as soybean oil [74][78]. 3.2.3 Export - Indonesian palm oil export: From January to August 2025, export revenue increased by 43% year - on - year to $24.79 billion, and export volume increased by 15% year - on - year to 22.69 million tons, supported by improved production and stronger global palm oil prices [41]. - Malaysian palm oil export: From October 1st to 25th, 2025, the export volume was 1.2838 million tons, a 0.36% decrease month - on - month, with average export performance [45]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Malaysian palm oil inventory: It shows a seasonal inventory build - up trend, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. However, as the production increase season window narrows, the inventory build - up speed may slow down [59]. - Indonesian palm oil inventory: Due to strong biodiesel consumption and good export demand, the inventory is at a low level [59]. - Domestic palm oil inventory: The inventory build - up trend has slowed down. The inventory has risen from a previous low level, and the basis is under pressure [84]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet No specific balance sheet data and analysis content are provided in the text. 3.4 Fourth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Technical Analysis - The recent top pattern of palm oil futures prices has formed, and the moving averages have turned into a short - term bearish arrangement, showing a bearish trend in technical analysis [102]. 3.4.2 Seasonal Analysis No specific seasonal analysis content is provided in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures and Options Future Market Outlook - Short - term: Slightly weak and bottom - building. - Medium - to - long - term: Upward. Pay attention to the inventory situation of Indonesian palm oil, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and international crude oil prices. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [113].

10月24日，棕榈油期货窄幅偏强震荡，截至发稿主力合约报9140.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.29%。 【消息面汇总】 国元期货：短期马供需双增，而印尼B50计划政府仍在持续推进中，棕油市场多空交织。产地减产季在 即，仍对格形成支撑，棕榈油谨慎看待跌势。 据外媒报道，印尼能源部长表示，印尼计划在2027年执行汽油中强制掺混10%生物乙醇的计划。这个东 南亚国家正致力于扩大使用棕榈油和甘蔗制成的生物燃料，以增强自身的能源自给能力。 国投安信期货：四季度棕榈油进入减产周期，减产季的表现会左右价格，在海外总需求被豆油挤压，需 求不够强势的情况下，如果供应端能快速下降，棕榈油价格韧性会强。如果供应端下降慢，要谨慎棕榈 油价格的波动重心需要下移去测试压力。马来西亚棕榈油协会预计马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估 增加10.77%，高频的数据显示供应端增幅偏大。远期生柴需求预期是增长的，只是执行节奏存在考 验，预计棕油仍有韧性，中长期逢低多配植物油。短期海外需求偏疲弱，而马来供应端增长比往年力度 大，阶段性要谨慎棕榈油价格回调力度，短期注意油粕比调整风险。 花旗分析师Gan Huan Wen在一份报告中指出，印尼计划于2 ...