Core Viewpoint - The domestic palm oil futures market is experiencing a mixed performance with prices showing a slight upward trend, influenced by various factors including production changes and weather conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, the main contract for palm oil futures opened at 8420.00 yuan/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a peak of 8540.00 yuan and a low of 8406.00 yuan, resulting in an increase of approximately 1.81% [1] - The overall market for palm oil is characterized by strong performance despite mixed market conditions, with the futures prices showing a trend of oscillation upwards [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Zhengxin Futures noted an increase in Malaysia's palm oil production month-on-month, with improvements in fresh fruit bunch yield and oil extraction rates; however, the spot transaction volume was zero, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Ningzheng Futures indicated that the onset of the rainy season in Malaysia suggests an upcoming reduction in production, with a significant decrease in palm oil output expected compared to the first 20 days of the month, alongside flooding in Indonesia that may support future prices [1] - Everbright Futures reported a seasonal increase in Malaysian palm oil production coupled with a decrease in exports, resulting in significant inventory pressure; Indonesian palm oil spot prices have fallen while Malaysian prices have risen, contributing to a generally oscillating market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Palm oil is expected to bottom out first and then strengthen as it is about to enter the production - reduction season. The short - term trend is slightly weak and bottom - building, while the medium - to - long - term trend is upward. The support level of the palm oil main 01 contract is around 8500 - 8600, and the resistance level is around 9300 - 9350. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [1][113]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Futures Market Review - Factors affecting palm oil prices include the promotion of Indonesia's B40 policy, Sino - Canadian trade relations, changes in palm oil's cost - effectiveness, production and inventory in the origin, international crude oil prices, and the US biodiesel policy. These factors have led to fluctuations in palm oil prices, including price increases, decreases, and continuous weakening [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic and International Supply - Demand Situation 3.2.1 Production - Malaysian palm oil production: High - frequency data shows continuous production increases. From the 1st to the 20th of October, production increased by 10.77% compared to the same period in September. From the 1st to the 25th of October, the yield per unit area increased by 1.63% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. However, due to environmental regulations, land constraints, and an aging tree population, the growth rate of the planting area has slowed down, and overall production is below 20 million tons. The production increase season window is narrowing, and production may not continue to rise after November [12][13]. - Indonesian palm oil production: As of August 2025, the crude palm oil production reached 35.65 million tons, a 13% increase year - on - year. The total palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, was 39.03 million tons, also a 13% increase year - on - year. It is estimated that the annual production will increase by about 10%, reaching 56 - 57 million tons [18]. 3.2.2 Consumption - Indonesian palm oil consumption: From January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption was 16.406 million tons, a 5.37% increase year - on - year. Among them, edible consumption was 6.579 million tons, a 1.29% decrease year - on - year, and biodiesel consumption was 8.343 million tons, a 12.42% increase year - on - year. It is expected that if B50 is implemented in 2026, biodiesel consumption will increase by about 3.5 million tons [33][37]. - Domestic palm oil consumption: The cost - effectiveness of palm oil is poor, and the spot and futures price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil are inverted. As a result, palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, and its market share is occupied by competing oils such as soybean oil [74][78]. 3.2.3 Export - Indonesian palm oil export: From January to August 2025, export revenue increased by 43% year - on - year to $24.79 billion, and export volume increased by 15% year - on - year to 22.69 million tons, supported by improved production and stronger global palm oil prices [41]. - Malaysian palm oil export: From October 1st to 25th, 2025, the export volume was 1.2838 million tons, a 0.36% decrease month - on - month, with average export performance [45]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Malaysian palm oil inventory: It shows a seasonal inventory build - up trend, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. However, as the production increase season window narrows, the inventory build - up speed may slow down [59]. - Indonesian palm oil inventory: Due to strong biodiesel consumption and good export demand, the inventory is at a low level [59]. - Domestic palm oil inventory: The inventory build - up trend has slowed down. The inventory has risen from a previous low level, and the basis is under pressure [84]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet No specific balance sheet data and analysis content are provided in the text. 3.4 Fourth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.4.1 Technical Analysis - The recent top pattern of palm oil futures prices has formed, and the moving averages have turned into a short - term bearish arrangement, showing a bearish trend in technical analysis [102]. 3.4.2 Seasonal Analysis No specific seasonal analysis content is provided in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures and Options Future Market Outlook - Short - term: Slightly weak and bottom - building. - Medium - to - long - term: Upward. Pay attention to the inventory situation of Indonesian palm oil, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and international crude oil prices. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money put options with a strike price 2 - 3 steps away [113].

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing slight upward movement, with the main contract reported at 9140.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.29% [1] Group 1: Market Developments - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory 10% bioethanol blending in gasoline by 2027, aiming to enhance energy self-sufficiency through increased use of palm oil and sugarcane-based biofuels [2] - Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen indicated that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy, initially set for 2026, may be delayed to 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable palm oil-diesel price differentials [2] - On October 23, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports reached 3600 tons, marking a 44.00% increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guoyuan Futures noted that both supply and demand for palm oil are increasing in the short term, with the Indonesian B50 plan still being actively pursued, leading to a mixed market outlook for palm oil [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures stated that the fourth quarter marks the beginning of the palm oil production reduction cycle, which will significantly influence prices. If supply decreases rapidly, palm oil prices may show resilience; however, if the supply reduction is slow, caution is advised regarding potential price declines [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association projected a 10.77% increase in palm oil production for Malaysia from October 1-20, with high-frequency data indicating a significant increase in supply [3]