在产地减产担忧、印度需求转向等利多驱动下，12月首周，国内棕榈油现货价格周环比上涨2.44%。后 期来看，随着产地减产预期逐步兑现，预计12月棕榈油价格或偏强运行。 11月底，产地天气扰动令市场对棕榈油产量下滑存在担忧，推动棕榈油价格走高。国内来看，截至12月 5日，国内24度棕榈油现货价格参考8831元／吨，周均价为8777元／吨，环比上涨209元／吨，涨幅 2.44%。 从产地市场来看，马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）最新数据显示，马来西亚11月毛棕榈油产量环比下降 4.38%，此前机构预估降幅为2.9%，产量降幅超出此前预期，对价格构成利多支撑。但马棕产量整体仍 处于相对高位，叠加当月马棕出口量环比大幅下降约15%，因此尽管产量降幅扩大，市场预计11月马棕 库存仍可能继续累积。 10月以来，受棕榈油价格持续下跌影响，国际豆油与棕榈油价差明显扩大。印度贸易商预计，该国11月 棕榈油进口量将环比增加4.6%至63万吨。另有市场消息显示，因全球豆油价格上涨，印度炼油厂已取 消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的豆油采购，转而寻求更具价格优势的替代油脂。目前印度市场棕榈油 价格较豆油低100美元／吨以上，性价比显著回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of potential inventory buildup in Malaysian palm oil in October led to a decline in palm oil prices. The BMD Malaysian palm oil 01 contract closed at 4,110 ringgit/ton on November 7, down 2.26% from the previous week, and the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,660 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous week [8][11]. - In the international market, there are increases in both production and exports of Malaysian palm oil in October, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Indian palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is 5,100 million tons and 1,920 million tons respectively [28][31][32]. - In the domestic market, the inversion of palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week, trading volume decreased, and inventory declined [37][39][41]. Summary by Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of November 7, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 01 contract closed at 4,110 ringgit/ton, down 2.26% from the previous week. The price decline was mainly due to expectations of inventory buildup in October, an estimated increase in production in the first 5 days of November, and a projected drop in Indian imports in October [8]. - SPPOMA and MPOA estimated a 5.55% and 12.31% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October respectively, and SPPOMA data showed a 6.80% month - on - month increase in production in the first 5 days of November [8]. - Three major institutions' high - frequency data predicted a 4.31% - 26.54% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports in October [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of November 7, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,660 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from the previous week. The price decline was affected by factors such as a drop in domestic palm oil import costs and expectations of inventory buildup in Malaysian palm oil in October [11]. - The inversion of the palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week, and the inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread continued to correct [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From November 1 - 7, precipitation in most areas was at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in the northwest, southeast of the Malay Peninsula, and southern Sarawak having 15 - 50mm more precipitation than normal [13]. - From November 8 - 14, precipitation in most areas is expected to be at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in the northwest and south of the Malay Peninsula expected to have 15 - 100mm more precipitation than normal [15]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From November 1 - 7, precipitation in most areas was at or below the historical normal level, with some areas in southern Sumatra, southwest and northeast Kalimantan having 15 - 100mm more precipitation than normal [19]. - From November 8 - 14, precipitation in most parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan is expected to be at or close to the historical normal level, with some areas having differences in precipitation compared to normal [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 Malaysian Palm Oil Forecast for October - November - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec, ITS, and SGS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31%, 5.19%, and 26.54% respectively compared to the previous month [23][24][25]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed a 5.55% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and a 6.80% increase in the first 5 days of November. MPOA data showed a 12.31% month - on - month increase in Malaysian crude palm oil production in October, reaching 2.07 million tons [28]. 3.2 Other Important News - Indian palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low, with a total import volume of 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September [31]. - The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia for the 2025/26 season is 5,100 million tons, and in Malaysia is 1,920 million tons [31][32]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory in October is expected to rise to a two - year high, with an estimated inventory of 2.44 million tons, a 3.5% increase [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - The inversion of the palm oil's import profit margin narrowed this week [37]. 4.2 Palm Oil Trading Volume - As of November 7, the weekly trading volume of palm oil (spot trading + basis trading) was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week, a decline of 48% [39]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of October 31, 2025 (week 44), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.36% [41]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month - to - Month Spread, and Variety Spread - Information on palm oil basis, month - to - month spread, variety spread, and POGO spread is presented through various charts [45][49]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest - Information on DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract open interest is presented through charts [54]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Information on Malaysian and Indonesian 24 - degree palm oil FOB quotes is presented through charts [57].