在产地减产担忧、印度需求转向等利多驱动下，12月首周，国内棕榈油现货价格周环比上涨2.44%。后 期来看，随着产地减产预期逐步兑现，预计12月棕榈油价格或偏强运行。 11月底，产地天气扰动令市场对棕榈油产量下滑存在担忧，推动棕榈油价格走高。国内来看，截至12月 5日，国内24度棕榈油现货价格参考8831元／吨，周均价为8777元／吨，环比上涨209元／吨，涨幅 2.44%。 从产地市场来看，马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）最新数据显示，马来西亚11月毛棕榈油产量环比下降 4.38%，此前机构预估降幅为2.9%，产量降幅超出此前预期，对价格构成利多支撑。但马棕产量整体仍 处于相对高位，叠加当月马棕出口量环比大幅下降约15%，因此尽管产量降幅扩大，市场预计11月马棕 库存仍可能继续累积。 10月以来，受棕榈油价格持续下跌影响，国际豆油与棕榈油价差明显扩大。印度贸易商预计，该国11月 棕榈油进口量将环比增加4.6%至63万吨。另有市场消息显示，因全球豆油价格上涨，印度炼油厂已取 消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的豆油采购，转而寻求更具价格优势的替代油脂。目前印度市场棕榈油 价格较豆油低100美元／吨以上，性价比显著回 ...

价差优势导致印度需求转向，利多棕榈油市场 10月以来，受棕榈油价格持续下跌影响，国际豆油与棕榈油价差明显扩大。印度贸易商预计，该国11月 棕榈油进口量将环比增加4.6%至63万吨。另有市场消息显示，因全球豆油价格上涨，印度炼油厂已取 消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的豆油采购，转而寻求更具价格优势的替代油脂。目前印度市场棕榈油 价格较豆油低100美元/吨以上，性价比显著回升，从而增强了印度进口棕榈油的意愿，对棕榈油价格形 成提振。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯棕榈油市场分析师轩东爽 【导语】12月首周，棕榈油在产地减产担忧、印度需求转向等利多驱动下，国内现货价格周环比上涨 2.44%。然国内现货市场交投清淡、基差贴水持续现货价格涨幅。随着减产预期逐步兑现，预计12月棕 榈油价格偏强运行，关注产销高频数据及MPOB报告兑现情况。 11月底，棕榈油受产地天气扰动，市场对棕榈油产量存在担忧，推送棕榈油价格走高。12月首周，在多 种利好因素推动下，现货价格延续涨势，但马棕累库预期制约价格涨幅。截至12月5日，国内24度棕榈 油现货价格参考8831元/吨，周均价为8777元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for palm oil is "Volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the current decline in palm oil prices depends on four factors: whether the October MPOB data meets market expectations, the improvement of India's palm oil procurement, the production prospects in the producing areas from November to December, and the possibility of the implementation of biofuel policies in Indonesia and the United States [3] - The logic supporting the medium - to long - term rise of palm oil still exists, but short - term supply pressure is prominent. The upside space for the 01 contract is limited, while the 05 contract may present long - position opportunities and P2601 - P2605 reverse spread opportunities [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 10 - Month Palm Oil Price Decline Review 1.1 The Beginning of the Current Decline: Unexpected Inventory Accumulation of Malaysian Palm Oil in September - After the double - festival holiday in October, the palm oil price showed a strong rebound trend, but the MPOB September report on October 10th showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory reached 2360000 tons, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a 21 - month high [2][13] - In terms of production, the decline in production in the Malay Peninsula was offset by the increase in production in Sabah and Sarawak. In terms of exports, affected by the export tax adjustment in Indonesia and Argentina, and the substitution of soybean oil, Malaysia's overall export situation was not ideal. In terms of apparent demand, it is speculated that the large - scale inventory accumulation may be due to increased smuggling from Indonesia to Malaysia [14][15] 1.2 The Core of the Current Decline: Weaker - than - expected Reality and the Weakening of Strong Future Expectations - The continuous negative data of Malaysian palm oil and the lack of confidence in future strong expectations accelerated the decline. The MPOA's forecast of a more than 10% increase in production from October 1 - 20 far exceeded market expectations, and the decline in export data further increased the inventory pressure [18][22] - Indonesian data and policies also exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the market. Although the review of illegal plantations in Indonesia may affect future production, the current production data has not shown a negative impact. The market is also divided on the implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy [25][27] Palm Oil Price Outlook for the Future: Rebound Imminent or Not Yet at the Bottom? Short - Term Outlook - Key factors include the difference between the MPOB data and market expectations and whether November data shows an increasing production trend. If the data meets expectations, prices may stop falling and stabilize; if it is better than expected, there may be a limited rebound; if it is worse than expected, prices may continue to fall [32] - In terms of supply, it is expected that the production of Malaysian palm oil in November will decline slightly following normal seasonal changes. In terms of demand, India and Pakistan's restocking demand and Indonesia's B40 implementation progress need to be focused on [32][38][41] Long - Term Outlook - The core drivers are Indonesia's B50 policy and the US biofuel policy. If Indonesia's B50 policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, the increase in palm oil demand is expected to be 200000 - 300000 tons. Whether the upside space can be opened depends on the balance between production and biofuel demand [46][50] Investment Strategies and Suggestions - Short - term: Pay attention to the MPOB report and November high - frequency data. After the bearish sentiment in the market subsides, focus on the opportunity of a small - scale rebound, but the space is expected to be limited. If the data is more bearish than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 01 contract, with a support level of 8200 yuan [51] - Medium - to long - term: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas, restocking in the consuming areas, and biofuel policies of relevant countries. Consider long - position opportunities for the 05 contract during the Ramadan trading period from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of next year [51]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil spot prices experienced a rebound in July and August, but saw a correction in September as market bullish factors were exhausted. However, tight fundamentals in Malaysia are expected to limit the price decline [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the CFR price for 24-degree palm oil in China was reported at $1,106 per ton, with an average import cost of approximately 9,438 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.24% [1]. - The domestic average price for 24-degree palm oil was 9,378 yuan per ton in September, down 0.17% from August. Despite this, high import costs are expected to suppress further declines in spot prices [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - India's palm oil imports peaked in August but are expected to decline to around 830,000 tons in September, indicating weakening demand support for palm oil prices [3]. - Seasonal patterns suggest that palm oil production typically peaks in October, but adverse weather in Malaysia has led to an unexpected decline in production, with September output estimated at 1.76 million tons. This tightening supply may bolster palm oil prices [3]. - The seasonal index indicates a high probability of palm oil price increases in October, supported by a "weak supply, strong demand" scenario in Malaysia. However, domestic demand may not improve significantly, potentially limiting price increases [3].