格隆汇2月24日｜马来西亚棕榈油理事会(Malaysian Palm Oil Council, 简称MPOC)称，3月份棕榈油价格 预计将在每吨4000-4300马来西亚林吉特区间盘整。该理事会表示，近期供应趋紧、印度需求改善以及 美国豆油价格坚挺应会为棕榈油价格提供支撑。该理事会认为，马来西亚出口走强以及印尼在出口税上 调前提前发货，预计将削减两国库存。该理事会补充称，由于价格竞争力提高，预计印度需求将反弹， 预计2026年棕榈油消费量将增加80万吨。但MPOC表示，全球大豆供应充足和中国豆油出口增加可能会 限制毛棕榈油(CPO)价格的涨幅，这或将抑制其价格的进一步上涨。这两种油的价格走势往往同步，因 为它们可用于类似产品。 ...

马来西亚棕榈油理事会称，3月份棕榈油价格预计将在每吨4,000-4,300马来西亚林吉特区间盘整。该理 事会表示，近期供应趋紧、印度需求改善以及美国豆油价格坚挺应会为棕榈油价格提供支撑。该理事会 认为，马来西亚出口走强以及印尼在出口税上调前提前发货，预计将削减两国库存。该理事会补充称， 由于价格竞争力提高，预计印度需求将反弹，预计2026年棕榈油消费量将增加80万吨。但MPOC表示， 全球大豆供应充足和中国豆油出口增加可能会限制毛棕榈油价格的涨幅，这或将抑制其价格的进一步上 涨。这两种油的价格走势往往同步，因为它们可用于类似产品。 ...

Market Review - The main palm oil futures contract closed at 8,648 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.35% [1] Fundamental Summary - The U.S. forecast for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is 19.7 million tons, higher than previous estimates and last year's 19.38 million tons [2] - A Reuters survey predicts that the average palm oil price in 2026 will be 4,125 MYR/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production for 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 2.61% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 is projected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.39% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of the country is 746,100 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous week, up 1.37% [2] - Year-on-year, the inventory has increased by 264,300 tons, a rise of 54.86% from last year's 481,800 tons [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that the decline in Malaysia's palm oil production and increased exports improve supply-demand dynamics, while Indonesia's adjustment of export tax policies boosts demand [4] - The expectation of favorable U.S. biodiesel policies enhances market confidence, with short-term palm oil prices expected to fluctuate slightly stronger amid high inventory and improved supply-demand conditions [4] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures highlights that the U.S. biodiesel policy is gaining traction, which is bullish; however, the MPOB report indicates a slightly higher-than-expected inventory accumulation [4] - January's high-frequency data shows a decline in production and an increase in exports, reducing bearish sentiment for Malaysia [4] - Indonesia's B50 expectations have weakened, with the Energy Minister stating that the implementation of the B50 plan will depend on the price difference between crude oil and CPO [4] - The Indonesian president mentioned the potential confiscation of 4-5 million hectares of plantations this year, and a 2.5% increase in tariffs is expected [4] - The combination of reduced production and strong demand support a short-term bullish outlook, with attention on January's high-frequency data and biodiesel policy developments [4]

Core Insights - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the December 2025 palm oil supply and demand data, indicating a month-on-month decline in production but remaining at historically high levels. The report showed slightly higher-than-expected ending stocks, leading to a bearish market impact. However, following the report, palm oil prices rebounded as market negativity was priced in, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in January 2026 [2][17]. Production Data - December 2025 palm oil production was 1.8298 million tons, down 5.46% month-on-month but up 23.07% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 1.76 million tons. The production remains significantly above the five-year average [4][19]. - The production decline was uneven across regions: Peninsular Malaysia saw a 13.61% decrease to 900,400 tons, while production in Sabah remained stable, and Sarawak experienced a 5.35% decline [4][19]. Export and Consumption - December 2025 palm oil exports increased to 1.3165 million tons, up 8.52% month-on-month, surpassing market estimates but still below the five-year average. Cumulatively, exports for 2025 totaled 15.26 million tons, a decline of 9.27% year-on-year [8][23]. - Domestic consumption fell to 331,400 tons, down 20.89% month-on-month, indicating limited domestic demand [17][23]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of December, palm oil stocks rose to 3.0506 million tons, a 7.58% increase from the previous month and a 78.53% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in five years. This was above market expectations of 2.97 to 3.01 million tons [9][24]. - The high inventory levels are attributed to sustained high production, contributing to ongoing supply pressure in the market [9][24]. Price Outlook - Despite high inventory levels, the market is expected to see a gradual improvement in palm oil prices due to a potential decrease in stocks in January 2026, driven by reduced production and a recovery in exports. The forecast for January 2026 domestic palm oil prices is between 8,650 and 8,900 CNY per ton, with an average expected price of 8,790 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.69% [12][27].

Market Review - Domestic oilseed market showed weak fluctuations, with palm oil futures for the 2605 contract falling by 0.72% to 8276 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - Global sustainable development requirements, including new EU regulations, are increasing pressure on palm oil producers, potentially leading them to shift exports to markets with looser standards [2] - According to shipping survey agency ITS, Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month-on-month to 1.748 million tons [2] - MPOC forecasts that Indonesia's palm oil exports will rise to 16.2 million tons by 2026, while production is expected to grow moderately to 19.7 million tons after a natural rest period following a bumper harvest in 2025 [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first half of December, coupled with government comments on expected inventory accumulation, leading to bearish market sentiment; a cautious approach is advised for short-selling operations due to the upcoming production reduction season in Southeast Asia [4] - Ningzheng Futures indicated that despite Indonesia's B50 entering road testing, there was no significant boost to the market; the weak trend for Malaysian palm oil remains unchanged, with seasonal demand for oilseeds being low and downstream purchasing lacking momentum; short-selling is recommended during price rebounds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the supply and demand data for palm oil in November 2025, indicating a bearish outlook due to a significant drop in exports and higher-than-expected ending stocks, despite production remaining historically high [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Data - November palm oil production was reported at 1.9355 million tons, a decrease of 5.30% month-on-month, but an increase of 19.38% year-on-year [2]. - Exports fell sharply to 1.2128 million tons, down 28.13% from the previous month and down 18.45% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic consumption rose significantly to 418,900 tons, an increase of 71.75% month-on-month and 104.74% year-on-year [2]. - Ending stocks increased to 2.8354 million tons, up 13.04% month-on-month and 54.42% year-on-year, which was much higher than market expectations [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the palm oil market may continue to experience a loose supply-demand balance in December, with potential for further inventory accumulation due to weak domestic demand [1][4]. - Despite recent increases in domestic consumption, the sustainability of this trend is questionable, as it may be influenced by hidden exports [4]. - The price of palm oil is expected to remain under pressure, with projections indicating that domestic prices will range between 8,600 and 8,900 yuan per ton in December [5].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic palm oil prices have increased by 2.44% week-on-week in early December, driven by concerns over production cuts and shifting demand from India, with expectations of continued strong performance in palm oil prices as production cut forecasts materialize [1][7]. Group 1: Production Insights - Concerns over production cuts have been heightened due to weather disturbances affecting palm oil output, leading to price increases [1][7]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported a 4.38% month-on-month decline in crude palm oil production for November, exceeding previous estimates of a 2.9% drop, which supports price increases despite overall high production levels [3]. - November palm oil exports from Malaysia saw a significant decrease of approximately 15%, suggesting potential inventory accumulation despite production declines [3]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The price differential has led to increased demand for palm oil from India, with expected imports rising by 4.6% month-on-month to 630,000 tons in November [5]. - Indian refiners have canceled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil purchases scheduled for December to January due to rising global soybean oil prices, opting for more competitively priced palm oil instead [5]. - Currently, palm oil prices in India are over $100 per ton lower than soybean oil, enhancing the attractiveness of palm oil imports [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As weather-related factors diminish, market focus is shifting back to the fundamentals of palm oil, with close attention on high-frequency production and sales data from major producing countries and the upcoming MPOB report [7]. - If production cuts are confirmed to be more significant than anticipated, this could further support price increases [7]. - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere, with some regions facing pressure to expedite transactions, which may limit upward price movement [7]. - Overall, the likelihood of a price rebound in December is high, with expectations for 24-degree palm oil prices to range between 8,660 and 9,000 yuan per ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil both rose this week. However, the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report data and changes in import demand in major consuming regions such as India [8][12]. - The rainfall in most palm oil - producing areas is expected to be normal or above normal in the coming week, which may have an impact on palm oil production [16][22]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the Malaysian palm oil futures price [31]. - Indian palm oil imports may increase in December due to price advantages [32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **BMD Malaysian Palm Oil**: As of the close on December 5th, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,152 ringgit/ton, up 0.92% from last week. The price increase was driven by expectations of a decline in November production, an expected increase in Indian imports in November, and rising international crude oil prices. However, expected weak export demand and inventory accumulation in November may drag down prices. SPPOMA and MPOA data show that November production is expected to decline by 0.19% and 4.38% respectively, and three major institutions' high - frequency data suggest that November exports may decrease by 15.89% - 39.21% [8]. - **DCE Palm Oil**: As of the close on December 5th, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,770 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from last week. Although the price rose, the expected sharp decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may suppress the price. The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin has been repaired. Recently, domestic palm oil inventory has slightly decreased, downstream transactions have been light, and the spot basis has fluctuated [12]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in western and eastern Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than normal, precipitation in other areas was at or below normal levels by 15 - 100mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern and southeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northeastern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 50mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 50mm [14][16]. - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in northern and central - western Sumatra and northern and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 75mm below normal, precipitation in other areas was at or above normal levels by 15 - 75mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 100mm [20][22]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast** - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1st to 30th were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data shows exports of 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease. SGS data predicts exports of 779,392 tons, a 39.21% decrease [24]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data shows that from November 1st to 30th, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that November production is estimated to decrease by 4.38%, with a 5% decrease in Peninsular Malaysia, 3.75% in Sabah, and 3.3% in Sarawak [27]. - **Other Important Information**: Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders due to rising global prices and a depreciating rupee. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian palm oil imports in November increased slightly, and are expected to further increase in December [30][31][32]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Import Profit**: The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin on the futures market has been repaired this week [33]. - **Palm Oil Transactions**: Palm oil trading volume declined significantly this week. As of the week of December 5th, the total weekly trading volume (spot + basis trading) was 700 tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons or 92% from last week [36]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 28th (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week and a 35.38% increase from the same period last year [38][39]. 3.5 Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations** - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report provides charts of the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [42][46]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: The report presents charts of international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread, and domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread [48][51]. - **Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest**: The report provides charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [53]. - **FOB Quotations**: The report provides charts of the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil has risen, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the producing areas, high - frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand in major consumption areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [8][9] - The increase in domestic palm oil inventory has dragged down the price trend of the DCE palm oil futures, and attention should be paid to domestic palm oil import purchases and changes in downstream demand [12] Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review 1. BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of November 28, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly due to concerns about production caused by floods in Southeast Asia, but weak export demand limited the increase [8] - SPPOMA and MPOA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November was expected to increase month - on - month, but the increase estimated by MPOA was much lower than that estimated by SPPOMA. The increase in production in the first 25 days of November was significantly narrower than that in the first 20 days [8] - Three major institutions' high - frequency data predicted that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in the first 25 days of November decreased by 16.4% - 40.77% month - on - month, and weak export demand dragged down the price [8] 2. DCE Palm Oil - As of November 28, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. The price increase was mainly driven by the rise in the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil, but the increase in domestic palm oil inventory dragged down the futures price [12] - This week, the quotes of foreign merchants increased. Recently, palm oil inventory increased slightly, and downstream transactions were relatively light [12] II. Producing Area Weather 1. Palm Oil Producing Area Weather - **Malaysian Producing Area Weather**: From November 22 - 28, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia and central Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for a small part of southern Peninsular Malaysia, southeastern Sarawak, and southern Sabah where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or lower than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [14][16] - **Indonesian Producing Area Weather**: From November 22 - 28, except for parts of southeastern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm. From November 29 - December 5, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra and western Kalimantan where precipitation was expected to be 15 - 50mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in other areas was expected to be generally at or higher than the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm [19][21] III. International Supply and Demand 1. GAPKI September Report - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of the month was 2.592 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous month. The export volume of palm oil (including refined products) was 2.2 million tons, a 37% month - on - month decrease and a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of September, the cumulative export volume of palm oil (including refined products) in 2025 reached 2.4896 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [23] - In September 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production was 3.932 million tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year decrease. As of September, Indonesia's CPO production in 2025 reached 39.581 million tons, an 11% year - on - year increase [23] 2. Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from November 1 - 25 was 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data showed that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 1,041,935 tons, an 18.8% decrease from the same period last month. SGS data predicted that the export volume from November 1 - 25 was 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the same period last month [31] - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and production increased by 10.32% month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.49% month - on - month. MPOA data showed that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% from the same period last month [34] 3. Other Important News - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14/ton, lower than $963.75/ton in November. The export tariff of crude palm oil in December will drop to $74, lower than $124 in the previous month. Indonesia also imposes an additional 10% special export tax on crude palm oil [38] - Malaysia's palm oil exports to China in the first 10 months of this year decreased by about 29% year - on - year, facing challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing dynamics, and market positioning [38] - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra Island caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27. The floods affected 13 regions and cities in West Sumatra Province, and 16 telecommunications base stations were shut down [38] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit for the January 2026 shipment slightly widened [39] 2. Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of the week of November 28, the total weekly transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) of palm oil were 8,600 tons, an increase of 600 tons or 8% from the previous week [42] 3. Palm Oil Inventory - As of November 21, 2025 (week 47), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 667,100 tons, a 1.39 - million - ton or 2.13% increase from the previous week, and a 159,200 - ton or 31.34% increase from the same period last year [44][45] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts showed the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 futures contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [48][52] - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant charts showed international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread [54][57][58] 2. Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest - Relevant charts showed the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [60] 3. FOB Quotes - Relevant charts showed the FOB quotes of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [63]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil spot prices experienced a rebound in July and August, but saw a correction in September as market bullish factors were exhausted. However, tight fundamentals in Malaysia are expected to limit the price decline [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the CFR price for 24-degree palm oil in China was reported at $1,106 per ton, with an average import cost of approximately 9,438 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.24% [1]. - The domestic average price for 24-degree palm oil was 9,378 yuan per ton in September, down 0.17% from August. Despite this, high import costs are expected to suppress further declines in spot prices [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - India's palm oil imports peaked in August but are expected to decline to around 830,000 tons in September, indicating weakening demand support for palm oil prices [3]. - Seasonal patterns suggest that palm oil production typically peaks in October, but adverse weather in Malaysia has led to an unexpected decline in production, with September output estimated at 1.76 million tons. This tightening supply may bolster palm oil prices [3]. - The seasonal index indicates a high probability of palm oil price increases in October, supported by a "weak supply, strong demand" scenario in Malaysia. However, domestic demand may not improve significantly, potentially limiting price increases [3].