【四季度国际棕榈油价格或高位震荡，基本面预期偏强】8月28日消息，四季度马来西亚棕榈油产量会 随季节性规律回落，且该国拟年底前启动可持续航空燃料生产，国内消费预期增加，致使国际棕榈油供 应预计下降。 当前印度植物油库存仍偏低，排灯节前补库需求高，这提振了产区棕榈油出口，对国际 棕榈油价格形成支撑。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

8月11日马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布了7月棕榈油供需报告。整体来看，7月马来西亚棕榈油供应 端增量大于需求增量，符合累库趋势，但实际库存却大幅低于市场预期，使得此次报告影响整体偏多。 在此背景下，考虑到8月棕榈油市场利多因素频出，且棕榈油市场需求存在回暖预期，预计8月棕榈油现 货价格料将延续涨势。 累库低于预期 7月MPOB报告影响多 马来西亚棕榈油局发布的7月棕榈油供需数据显示，7月马来西亚棕榈油产量为181.24万吨，环比增加 7.09%；出口量为130.91万吨，环比增3.82%；进口量为6.10万吨，环比降12.82%；7月末马棕库存增至 211.33万吨，环比增加4.02%。与此前市场预估数据相比，产量低于预期，出口略高于预期，库存大幅 低于预期，此次报告影响偏多，提振当日马棕期价宽幅收高。 分析来看，7月马棕产量低于预期，暗示产地供应压力不大，且产区呈"西增东减"差异化表现。据此前 机构预估，7月马棕产量将增至183万吨，但实际产量仅为181.24万吨，略低于市场预期，对价格存在支 撑。7月棕榈油延续季节性增产周期，其中西马天气条件改善，促进鲜果串生长。而东马局部地区受天 气影响，单产出现小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in palm oil prices, driven by various factors including weather conditions, export dynamics, and market demand, particularly from India and Indonesia [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late July, rumors of domestic companies exporting soybean oil to India led to a decrease in palm oil demand, causing prices to drop to a low of 8746 yuan/ton [4]. - However, by early August, reports of poor palm oil production in Indonesia led to a rebound in prices, surpassing 9000 yuan/ton with an increase of nearly 3% [4]. - The article notes that Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to face challenges due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures in July, which could affect fruit quality and yield [5][10]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production was estimated to decrease by 7%-8% due to lower rainfall, with cumulative production reaching 27.69 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - The article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 2.588 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.5% due to a decrease in export tariffs [10]. - As of mid-July, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was approximately 7.42 billion liters, aligning closely with annual targets despite concerns about the implementation of B40 biodiesel blending [11]. Group 3: International Trade and Demand - India's palm oil imports in June rose to 960,000 tons, up from 590,000 tons in May, indicating a recovery in demand [16]. - However, in July, palm oil imports decreased to 855,000 tons, attributed to high domestic prices, while soybean oil imports increased to 495,000 tons [16]. - The article also mentions that South American soybean oil exports are expected to slow down, which may lead India to rely more on palm oil imports in the upcoming months [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that palm oil prices may remain strong in the short term due to ongoing demand from India and biodiesel requirements in Indonesia [19]. - However, after the Diwali festival in October, palm oil imports may decline as inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia rise, potentially leading to a market shift towards weaker demand [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of palm oil are weak, and it is expected that the short - term palm oil price may fluctuate weakly [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 5. Market Outlook - The United States started imposing a 19% import tariff on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil on August 1st, and the EU set a zero - tariff quota of 1 million tons for Indonesian CPO [2][12] - In July 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the palm oil production increased by 7.07%. Malaysian palm oil exports in July are expected to decline by 6.71% - 9.58% [12] - The inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil in the domestic market has been slightly repaired. Recently, the center of the market has moved down. Enterprises in various markets are more active in quoting prices. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases, and some high - cost - performance resources in the market have sold well [2][12]

Group 1 - The strong demand for palm oil in the Indian market is a key factor driving the rise in Malaysian palm oil futures prices, with India expected to import over 800,000 tons of palm oil in June [1] - In May, India's palm oil imports reached 660,000 tons, a 12% increase compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in purchasing activity [1] - Indian buyers are strategically stockpiling palm oil due to relatively low international prices, with some refineries already pre-booking shipments for July [1] Group 2 - The robust demand from India is seen as a timely boost for the market, with replenishment needs post-Ramadan and seasonal consumption growth further driving palm oil prices up [3] - India's palm oil inventory at ports has dropped to a three-month low of 280,000 tons, increasing the urgency for importers to ramp up purchases [3] - Despite the optimistic outlook, Malaysian palm oil prices need to overcome challenges such as Indonesia's potential reintroduction of export taxes and fluctuations in international soybean oil prices and crude oil markets [3]

Core Insights - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged in May, indicating a strong demand and potential market recovery [1] - The reference price for crude palm oil exports in July has been raised, suggesting optimism in the market [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Indonesia's palm oil exports experienced a significant increase in May, reflecting robust demand [1] - The rise in exports may signal a recovery phase for the palm oil market [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - The reference price for July crude palm oil exports has been adjusted upwards, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - This price adjustment could influence future trading strategies and market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures prices have ended a four-day increase due to a cooling situation in the Middle East and a decline in palm oil exports from Indonesia, raising questions about the future price trends of palm oil [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Palm oil futures prices have experienced a four-day increase prior to the recent decline [1] - The cooling of the Middle East situation has contributed to the change in palm oil prices [1] - Indonesia's palm oil exports have decreased, impacting the overall market dynamics [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of palm oil prices remains uncertain following the recent developments in the Middle East and Indonesia's export situation [1]

Group 1 - Palm oil futures prices ended a two-day rally, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - India's palm oil imports surged, suggesting strong demand that could influence palm oil prices upward [1] - The question remains whether this robust demand will sustain the upward pressure on palm oil prices [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upward trend in palm oil prices driven by low inventory levels, while questioning whether increased production could pose a risk to this trend [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Palm oil futures prices are approaching a critical point, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The low inventory levels are a significant factor contributing to the rise in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Production Concerns - There is a concern that increased production may become a potential threat to the current price uptrend [1] - The balance between supply and demand will be crucial in determining the future direction of palm oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for palm oil, highlighting the decline in Indonesian palm oil inventories and the increase in Malaysian production, raising questions about whether the supply-demand balance will be disrupted and the future direction of palm oil prices [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesian palm oil inventories have decreased, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - Malaysian palm oil production is on the rise, which could lead to an oversupply situation [1] - The interplay between declining Indonesian stocks and increasing Malaysian output may impact the overall market balance [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The article raises concerns about the future trajectory of palm oil prices amid these supply changes [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring these developments to gauge potential price fluctuations [1]