12月10日，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）发布2025年11月棕榈油供需数据。数据显示，当月马棕产量环 比虽有回落，但仍处于历史同期高位；同时，由于出口大幅下滑导致期末库存明显高于市场预期，整体 报告呈现利空基调。 需求方面，近期中国持续采购12月船期货源，同时因国际豆油与棕榈油价差扩大，市场预期印度可能增 加棕榈油进口。然而，12月马来西亚棕榈油出口或难以显著改善，主要原因是印尼在12月大幅下调出口 关税，从而挤占马来西亚棕榈油的出口份额。此外，11月马来西亚国内消费量大幅上升，但部分原因或 来自棕榈油的隐形出口，预计12月马棕国内消费高企的态势或难以延续。 整体来看，如果12月马棕减产幅度有限，同时出口持续疲弱，则马棕存在继续累库可能，继续对价格构 成压制。国内方面，12月棕榈油供需格局预计仍保持宽松。伴随进口成本下降，国内近月采购量增加， 而需求端未见明显提振，下游企业多按刚需补库，国内库存延续上升趋势，限制现货基差上行空间。 | 2025 年 11 R | | --- | | 月 MPOB 供需数据 | | | | | | | 早位:方吃 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

在产地减产担忧、印度需求转向等利多驱动下，12月首周，国内棕榈油现货价格周环比上涨2.44%。后 期来看，随着产地减产预期逐步兑现，预计12月棕榈油价格或偏强运行。 11月底，产地天气扰动令市场对棕榈油产量下滑存在担忧，推动棕榈油价格走高。国内来看，截至12月 5日，国内24度棕榈油现货价格参考8831元／吨，周均价为8777元／吨，环比上涨209元／吨，涨幅 2.44%。 从产地市场来看，马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）最新数据显示，马来西亚11月毛棕榈油产量环比下降 4.38%，此前机构预估降幅为2.9%，产量降幅超出此前预期，对价格构成利多支撑。但马棕产量整体仍 处于相对高位，叠加当月马棕出口量环比大幅下降约15%，因此尽管产量降幅扩大，市场预计11月马棕 库存仍可能继续累积。 10月以来，受棕榈油价格持续下跌影响，国际豆油与棕榈油价差明显扩大。印度贸易商预计，该国11月 棕榈油进口量将环比增加4.6%至63万吨。另有市场消息显示，因全球豆油价格上涨，印度炼油厂已取 消约7万吨原定于12月至1月交付的豆油采购，转而寻求更具价格优势的替代油脂。目前印度市场棕榈油 价格较豆油低100美元／吨以上，性价比显著回 ...

| í | 行情回顾 . | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 1 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. | 棕榈油产区天气 | | = ( | 国际供需 5 | | 1. | 马棕 11月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 8 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | N NO NO 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 13 | 【国富棕榈油研究周报】棕榈油价格上涨，关注 MPOB 报告数据 20251208 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月8日 07:21 上海 油脂油料周度行情 目录 2公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 图: BMD马棕行情图 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至12月5日收盘,BMD 马棕 02 合约收于 4152 令吉/吨, 较上周上涨 0.92%。本周马棕价格上涨,主要受市场预期 ...

【国富棕榈油研究周报】棕榈油价格上涨，关注产地天气情况 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 油脂油料周度行情 目录 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 1 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | = ( | 国际供需 | | 1. | GAPKI 9月报告 | | 2. | 马棕 11月预测 7 | | 3. | 其他重要资讯 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 11 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 14 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 一、 行情回顾 1. BMD 马棕 图: BMD马棕行情图 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月28日,BMD马棕 02 合约收于 4114 令吉/吨,较 上周上涨 1.13%。本周马棕价格上涨, ...

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil spot prices experienced a rebound in July and August, but saw a correction in September as market bullish factors were exhausted. However, tight fundamentals in Malaysia are expected to limit the price decline [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - In September, the CFR price for 24-degree palm oil in China was reported at $1,106 per ton, with an average import cost of approximately 9,438 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.24% [1]. - The domestic average price for 24-degree palm oil was 9,378 yuan per ton in September, down 0.17% from August. Despite this, high import costs are expected to suppress further declines in spot prices [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - India's palm oil imports peaked in August but are expected to decline to around 830,000 tons in September, indicating weakening demand support for palm oil prices [3]. - Seasonal patterns suggest that palm oil production typically peaks in October, but adverse weather in Malaysia has led to an unexpected decline in production, with September output estimated at 1.76 million tons. This tightening supply may bolster palm oil prices [3]. - The seasonal index indicates a high probability of palm oil price increases in October, supported by a "weak supply, strong demand" scenario in Malaysia. However, domestic demand may not improve significantly, potentially limiting price increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the fourth quarter due to seasonal production declines in Malaysia and increased domestic consumption, alongside low inventory levels in India driving demand for imports [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - Malaysia's palm oil production is anticipated to decrease in the fourth quarter following seasonal trends [1] - The country plans to initiate sustainable aviation fuel production by the end of the year, which may impact palm oil supply dynamics [1] Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption of palm oil in Malaysia is expected to rise, contributing to a tighter supply outlook [1] - India's low vegetable oil inventory levels are leading to heightened demand for palm oil ahead of the Diwali festival, supporting export activities from producing regions [1] Group 3: Price Implications - The combination of reduced supply from Malaysia and increased demand from India is likely to provide support for international palm oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The July report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) indicates that the increase in palm oil supply outpaced demand, aligning with the trend of inventory accumulation, but the actual inventory was significantly lower than market expectations, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][8] Supply and Demand Summary - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09% [2] - Exports rose to 1.3091 million tons, up 3.82% month-on-month, while imports decreased to 61,000 tons, down 12.82% [2] - By the end of July, palm oil inventory increased to 2.1133 million tons, a month-on-month rise of 4.02% [2][8] - The actual production was lower than the market forecast of 1.83 million tons, providing price support [4] Market Dynamics - The increase in exports in July contributed positively to palm oil prices, although overall exports remain at a low level compared to the past five years [6] - Demand from the Indian market was a significant factor in boosting palm oil exports, despite a slight decrease in import volume to 850,000 tons [6] - The report indicated that the inventory increase was lower than expected due to higher-than-anticipated domestic consumption, which heightened market bullish sentiment [8] Price Outlook - Multiple positive factors are expected to drive palm oil prices higher in August, including the MPOB report, increased soybean oil export demand, and supportive policies in Indonesia [9] - The palm oil market is anticipated to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand, with seasonal production cycles continuing [9] - The domestic market may see improved demand due to upcoming festivals and the back-to-school season, despite some constraints from price differentials with soybean oil [9] - The expected price range for domestic palm oil in August is projected to be between 9,200 and 9,650 yuan per ton [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in palm oil prices, driven by various factors including weather conditions, export dynamics, and market demand, particularly from India and Indonesia [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In late July, rumors of domestic companies exporting soybean oil to India led to a decrease in palm oil demand, causing prices to drop to a low of 8746 yuan/ton [4]. - However, by early August, reports of poor palm oil production in Indonesia led to a rebound in prices, surpassing 9000 yuan/ton with an increase of nearly 3% [4]. - The article notes that Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to face challenges due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures in July, which could affect fruit quality and yield [5][10]. Group 2: Production and Export Trends - In June, Indonesia's palm oil production was estimated to decrease by 7%-8% due to lower rainfall, with cumulative production reaching 27.69 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons compared to the same period in 2024 [10]. - The article highlights that Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 2.588 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 30.5% due to a decrease in export tariffs [10]. - As of mid-July, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was approximately 7.42 billion liters, aligning closely with annual targets despite concerns about the implementation of B40 biodiesel blending [11]. Group 3: International Trade and Demand - India's palm oil imports in June rose to 960,000 tons, up from 590,000 tons in May, indicating a recovery in demand [16]. - However, in July, palm oil imports decreased to 855,000 tons, attributed to high domestic prices, while soybean oil imports increased to 495,000 tons [16]. - The article also mentions that South American soybean oil exports are expected to slow down, which may lead India to rely more on palm oil imports in the upcoming months [17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that palm oil prices may remain strong in the short term due to ongoing demand from India and biodiesel requirements in Indonesia [19]. - However, after the Diwali festival in October, palm oil imports may decline as inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia rise, potentially leading to a market shift towards weaker demand [19].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of palm oil are weak, and it is expected that the short - term palm oil price may fluctuate weakly [2][12] 3. Summary by Directory 5. Market Outlook - The United States started imposing a 19% import tariff on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil on August 1st, and the EU set a zero - tariff quota of 1 million tons for Indonesian CPO [2][12] - In July 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the palm oil production increased by 7.07%. Malaysian palm oil exports in July are expected to decline by 6.71% - 9.58% [12] - The inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil in the domestic market has been slightly repaired. Recently, the center of the market has moved down. Enterprises in various markets are more active in quoting prices. Downstream buyers make rigid - demand purchases, and some high - cost - performance resources in the market have sold well [2][12]

Group 1 - The strong demand for palm oil in the Indian market is a key factor driving the rise in Malaysian palm oil futures prices, with India expected to import over 800,000 tons of palm oil in June [1] - In May, India's palm oil imports reached 660,000 tons, a 12% increase compared to the previous month, indicating a positive trend in purchasing activity [1] - Indian buyers are strategically stockpiling palm oil due to relatively low international prices, with some refineries already pre-booking shipments for July [1] Group 2 - The robust demand from India is seen as a timely boost for the market, with replenishment needs post-Ramadan and seasonal consumption growth further driving palm oil prices up [3] - India's palm oil inventory at ports has dropped to a three-month low of 280,000 tons, increasing the urgency for importers to ramp up purchases [3] - Despite the optimistic outlook, Malaysian palm oil prices need to overcome challenges such as Indonesia's potential reintroduction of export taxes and fluctuations in international soybean oil prices and crude oil markets [3]