拉加德10日在出席英国《金融时报》举办的相关活动时指出，欧元区对美国关税攻势的承受力强于预 期。她强调，欧盟并未对这些措施采取报复行动，欧元汇率保持稳定，且劳动力市场依然强劲。基于 此，继上次预测上调后，她预计在12月的政策会议上可能通过再次上调增长预期来反映这一积极态势。 随着决策层鹰派言论频出，货币市场正迅速重新评估欧洲央行的政策路径。交易员已不再预期明年会有 任何降息，目前市场定价显示，明年加息25个基点的概率已从周二的30%升至40%。另据掉期市场数 据，交易员预计到2026年底前加息的概率已升至50%，且完全排除了降息的可能性。 这一预期的根本性转变反映了决策者日益增强的信心，即借贷成本在可预见的未来可以维持不变甚至走 高。这一转变推动全球债券收益率走高，同时也标志着投资者认为欧洲央行的关注点正从刺激经济转向 巩固通胀治理成果与适应经济复苏。 来源：华尔街见闻 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，鉴于欧元区经济在面对外部贸易压力时展现出的韧性，欧洲央行下周公布的 新预测可能会上调经济增长预期。 经济展现韧性与预期上调 拉加德对欧元区经济前景表达了乐观态度，她指出，考虑到通胀率约2%的过往记录以及中期预测也维 持 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced slight declines last week, with the Dow Jones down 0.15%, Nasdaq down 0.51%, and S&P 500 down 0.31% [1] - European indices saw gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.74%, DAX 30 up 0.42%, and CAC 40 up 0.22% [1] Economic Indicators - Investors are closely watching U.S. employment data, particularly the September non-farm payrolls, which may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3][4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is currently at 86%, with a 70% chance of another cut in December [4] - The Eurozone is set to release preliminary inflation data, which could impact expectations for monetary easing [1][7] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising 5.32% to $65.02 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Ukraine, have contributed to supply shortages and increased oil prices [5] - Gold prices rose by 2.83% to $3775.30 per ounce following U.S. inflation data that met expectations [6] Corporate Earnings - Key companies to watch for earnings reports include Nike, Carnival, Jefferies, and Rivian [4] - The upcoming earnings reports will be critical in assessing the health of consumer spending and overall economic growth [4] Regulatory Changes - The Jiangsu provincial government announced the suspension of the automobile replacement subsidy policy effective September 28, 2025 [9] - This policy change may impact the automotive industry and consumer purchasing behavior in the region [9] Stock Market Developments - A total of 36 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to approximately 48.82 billion shares and a market value of about 400.81 billion yuan [22] - Notable companies with significant share unlocks include Ningbo Port (13.20 billion yuan), Wankai New Materials (4.66 billion yuan), and Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic (4.37 billion yuan) [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that the bank is prepared to adjust all tools to respond to economic challenges [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank is ready to implement necessary adjustments to its monetary policy tools [1] - Lagarde emphasized the importance of being proactive in addressing economic conditions [1] - The statement reflects the ECB's commitment to maintaining economic stability in the Eurozone [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the urgency for the European Central Bank to accelerate its actions and not delay any further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring the spillover effects of energy prices and may adjust its policy if the impact persists [1] Group 1: Policy Monitoring - The ECB is observing the inflation suppression effects of the recent euro appreciation [1] - If the ECB takes action within the next six months, it is more likely to be a loosening policy [1] - The ECB's policy must remain flexible while still being predictable [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The ECB's interest rates are very close to the center of the neutral range, indicating that the policy process may not be over yet [1] - The ECB should not become complacent or passive in its approach [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that being in a favorable zone does not imply that the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain unchanged in its monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The statement suggests that the ECB is open to adjusting its policies despite current favorable conditions [1] - This indicates a potential for future interest rate changes depending on economic developments [1] - The comments reflect the ECB's cautious approach to maintaining economic stability while being responsive to market conditions [1]