张尧浠：12月降息预期再反转、金价短期再待非农指引 上交易日周三(11月19日)：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收涨，多头动力未能持稳增强，但也处在中轨上方，美联储会议纪要整体显示未来仍偏向宽松政策，故 此，前景上，金价仍偏向看涨。短暂的回撤或震荡调整，也仍是在为多头制造入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4066.08美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4055.54美元，之后震荡反弹回升，一直延续到美盘23点时段录得日内高点4132.38美 元，并就此连续跳水走低，2小时左右再度触及日内低点一线，最终触底回升，收于4077.77美元，日振幅76.84美元，收涨11.69美元，涨幅0.29%。 影响上，日内受到周二公布的ADP周度就业数据显示就业疲态延续，增强了市场对美联储可能在12月降息的预期等预期推动金价走强，但美盘时段此预期 又被反转，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温至30%，美俄被曝绕开乌克兰秘密拟定28点和谈框架减弱避险情绪，美元指数强势走强收涨，打压金价连续跳 水，最终由于支持买盘和美联储会议纪要：多数官员认为随着时间的推移会进一步放松政策而限制了回落力量，使其反弹收涨。 展望今日周四(11月20日)：国际黄金开盘 ...

2025年11月18日，实物黄金周大生黄金报价1288元/克，相比昨日下跌了17元/克。铂金价格今天报价 626元/克，相比昨日保持不变。 基本面： 美联储副主席杰斐逊周一讲话强调，随着货币政策逐步回归中性水平，未来降息需更加谨慎。这番表态 进一步浇灭了市场对宽松政策的期待。在低利率和经济不确定性环境下，无息资产黄金通常更具吸引 力，但当前环境令其承压。 周大生 黄金价格 铂金价格 金条价格 单位 2025年11月18日 1288 626 - 元/克 2025年11月17日 1305 626 - 元/克 金投网提示：以上报价仅供参考，据此交易，风险自担。 附表： ...

Core Insights - The central bank has implemented an 800 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term, aimed at injecting liquidity into the market and alleviating year-end funding pressure [1][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - This operation is not just ordinary liquidity injection but a precise measure to ensure mid-term liquidity in the banking system, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased operations [3] - The net injection in November is expected to reach 500 billion yuan, the highest monthly figure since February of this year [3] Group 2: Underlying Reasons - The operation addresses the peak of local government bond issuance, with 500 billion yuan of local government debt needing liquidity support by year-end [4] - It complements the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, which is expected to boost credit demand [4] - The action aims to stabilize market expectations, fulfilling the central bank's commitment to maintain ample liquidity as stated in its third-quarter report [4] Group 3: Implications for Long-term Investors - The continuous liquidity support indicates that the easing policy will not shift, providing solid long-term support for the A-share market [5] - Investors should focus on sectors that benefit from policy support, such as new energy, semiconductors, and infrastructure [5] - While liquidity is abundant, market differentiation will persist, and investors should avoid chasing high-valuation themes, instead favoring undervalued leaders [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, with market expectations for further rate cuts this year diminishing [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped by 3.1%, falling below $108,000, before the decline moderated [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] Group 2 - Markets' CFO Charlie Sherry noted that Powell's comments triggered some risk-averse sentiment, compounded by the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, which led to market volatility [3] - While technology stocks are rising, cryptocurrencies have not followed suit, indicating relative weakness and hesitation in digital assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly decided to maintain its policy interest rate unchanged after three consecutive rate cuts, pausing the assessment of previous easing measures and ongoing fiscal stimulus impacts [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The central bank's decision came as a surprise, as most analysts had anticipated a fourth consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points [1] - Prior to this decision, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell to a 14-month low in September, limiting the central bank's ability to support the Indonesian rupiah [1] Group 2: Currency Outlook - Despite the Indonesian rupiah maintaining a strong exchange rate against the US dollar this month, economists expect downward pressure on the currency due to capital outflows [1]

Group 1 - US Treasury prices continue to rise, with mid-term yields dropping to their lowest point in a year due to concerns over regional bank failures and ongoing trade tensions, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1][2] - The 5-year US Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points to 3.51%, the lowest level since early October 2024, while the 2-year yield fell to levels not seen since 2022, and the benchmark 10-year yield dropped below 4% [1][2] - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $4,380, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic turmoil [1] Group 2 - Concerns over problematic loans disclosed by two regional US banks have intensified fears of a broader crisis, leading to a surge in demand for US Treasuries as part of a global risk-off trend [2] - The US fiscal deficit and trade tensions have further weakened risk sentiment, with the 10-year Australian Treasury yield falling to 4.09%, the lowest since early April, and Japanese Treasury yields also declining [2] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have supported the bond market, reinforcing expectations for more accommodative policies, with indications of potential rate cuts of 25 basis points [2]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $4200 per ounce, with a peak of $4218.13 on October 15, marking a daily increase of 1.85% [1] - COMEX gold also saw significant gains, reaching a high of $4235.8 per ounce, with an increase of over 1.7% [2] - Major gold jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, raised their gold prices to around 1230-1235 RMB per gram, reflecting a notable increase from the previous day [2] Group 2 - Analysts from ING noted that gold and silver have been the best-performing commodities this year, with prices rising over 55% and 80% year-to-date, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's easing policies and geopolitical tensions [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks further accelerated gold prices, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts in October and December, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, both favorable for gold [2][3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has extended into its third week, has delayed the release of important macroeconomic data, keeping market focus on Federal Open Market Committee members' speeches [3] Group 3 - Yunnan Copper announced an expected production of 16 tons of gold and 680 tons of silver by 2025, although the impact of rising precious metal prices on overall performance is limited due to low self-sufficiency in copper concentrate [4] - Nepean Mining indicated that a new mine is expected to produce approximately 1.1 tons of gold annually, alongside copper and silver production [4] - Western Gold announced plans for a share reduction by a major shareholder, with a total of up to 1.822 million shares to be sold, representing a reduction of no more than 2% of total shares [4] Group 4 - China National Gold reported the completion of a share reduction plan by CITIC Securities, involving the sale of 13.9194 million shares, accounting for 0.83% of the total share capital, with a total amount of 117.7 million RMB [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the re-emergence of the trade war between the US and China, with the US imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, 2025, and implementing export controls on key software [2][7] - The ongoing trade conflict is seen as a continuation of the trade barriers established since April 2025, which have not been resolved despite multiple rounds of negotiations [2][8][11] - The potential for a spiral escalation in trade tensions is noted, with both sides likely to continue retaliatory measures, impacting various sectors beyond trade [2][12] Group 2 - Short-term market impacts are expected to be manageable, as the A-share market rebounded quickly after previous trade war shocks, indicating investor resilience and experience [2][13] - In the medium term, structural investment opportunities are anticipated, particularly in sectors benefiting from import substitution and potential domestic policy easing [2][13] - Investment recommendations include increasing allocations to defensive sectors such as utilities and banks in the short term, while focusing on strategic technology sectors like nuclear fusion, AI, and semiconductor manufacturing for medium-term opportunities [3][13]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommends that South Korea maintain accommodative fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery while emphasizing the importance of structural reforms for long-term growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF forecasts South Korea's economy to grow by 0.9% this year, accelerating to 1.8% by 2026, driven by supportive policies and strong semiconductor exports [2] - Inflation is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's target of 2% during this period [2] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests that South Korea has sufficient policy space to stimulate the economy, but the policy mix should remain flexible to adapt to changing external risks [1] - The IMF supports the South Korean government's new economic growth strategy focused on artificial intelligence applications, service exports, and innovation, but stresses the need for accelerated reforms [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The IMF indicates that monetary easing will help drive economic recovery, given that inflation expectations are well-controlled and overall inflation risks are balanced [1] - There is speculation that the Bank of Korea may restart its easing cycle during the next policy meeting on October 23, with indications from committee members that a rate cut this year is reasonable [1]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]