格隆汇2月25日｜法国兴业银行策略师表示，即使进行干预以支撑日元，其反弹空间也有限。他们指 出，在美国官员进行汇率检查后，美国和日本曾考虑进行协调干预，尽管可能需要实际干预才能扭转日 元的人气。即便如此，如果相对增长前景没有转变，美元兑日元汇率也不可能大幅下跌。伦敦证券交易 所集团数据显示，美元兑日元一度升至两周高点156.82。当地媒体报道称，日本首相高市早苗对进一步 加息表示保留，同时政府向日本央行董事会提名了两位被视为倾向于宽松政策的学者。 ...

周一，日本首相高市早苗领导的自民党取得选举胜利，日元小幅走软，日经指数创纪录高位，亚洲其他股市追随华尔街涨势开盘上扬，韩国股市大涨逾 4%。贵金属再次反弹，白银站上80美元。 日本公共广播机构NHK数据显示，执政的自民党单独获得众议院三分之二的超级多数席位。这一议席比例为日本战后选举中任何政党的最高水平。 日经225指数涨幅扩大至5.15%，史上首次站上57000点。日本东证指数涨幅扩大至3%。软银集团股价上涨8.5%，为1月28日以来最大涨幅。 日元兑美元汇率交投于157.50附近。日本30年期国债收益率上升6.5个基点，至3.615%。日本10年期国债收益率上行4.5个基点至2.275%。 自民党在众议院获得绝对多数席位，为高市早苗实施更多债务驱动的财政刺激扫清了障碍，市场预期宽松政策将持续，令日元承压。但由于跌幅较大，亦存 在日本当局进行口头干预的风险。 韩国首尔综指高开4.1%，韩国三星电子股价涨逾6%。 大宗商品市场，现货黄金涨至5040美元附近，日内涨1.6%；现货白银站上80美元关口，日内涨超3%。布伦特原油下跌1.3%，因中东局势紧张缓解。 铁矿石将受到关注。周末期间，随着热带气旋接近澳大利亚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook believes that the current policy interest rate is only slightly restrictive and suggests waiting for a period before further rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - Cook stated that a significant amount of easing policy was introduced at the end of last year, indicating that the current economic conditions warrant a wait-and-see approach [1] - She emphasized the importance of observing the labor market and inflation situation before making further policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Inflation and Price Levels - Cook mentioned that the impact of tariffs suggests that the rise in price levels should be temporary [1] - The goal is to return to a path of anti-inflation, and she characterized the current policy stance as a very mild restriction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman may not lead to a shift towards interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] Group 1 - Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macro suggests that if Powell remains on the board after his term ends in May, the President will need to appoint Warsh using Stephen Miran's expiring seat [1] - Miran has consistently voted in favor of lowering the federal funds rate at every meeting since his appointment, indicating that appointing Warsh could result in the loss of a valuable voice supporting rate cuts for President Trump [1] - Tombs emphasizes that if Warsh is appointed, the implementation of loose monetary policy is not guaranteed [1]

瑞士Vontobel全球公司债主管Christian Hantel表示，当前美国经济前景依然乐观，经济持续增长，劳动 力市场虽然略显疲软但已趋于稳定。通胀率仍高于美联储的目标水平，这使得近期降息缺乏充分依据。 投资者应将关注点转向3月和6月的FOMC会议，视其为潜在的政策调整窗口。但如果经济形势需要，这 些调整也可能推迟到2026年下半年进行。市场将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔释放的任何关于美联储对进 一步宽松政策的开放态度信号。但就目前而言，美联储谨慎行事、逐次会议决策的方式似乎将继续保 持。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but ultimately rose due to signals of easing fiscal and monetary policies from the U.S., alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures increased by 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.1%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) fell by 0.39%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) dropped by 1.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed a desire to lower interest rates, stating that rates are a key driver of future economic growth [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan projected a potential interest rate cut of approximately 150 basis points in 2026, which could create around one million jobs without triggering inflation [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict has significantly enhanced the safe-haven attributes of gold and silver [1] - Despite a pre-holiday decline due to margin adjustments, gold and silver prices rebounded quickly afterward, indicating a strong reaction to geopolitical tensions [1] - The current conflict has led to an inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasury bonds and ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts, further weakening the dollar's credibility and prompting central banks to increase gold holdings [1]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a notable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds. The Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past eight days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 999 million yuan, totaling 3.795 billion yuan and an average daily net inflow of 474 million yuan [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights three key areas of focus for bond market investments in 2026: the performance of the equity market, the easing of central bank monetary policy, and the potential rebound of inflation. Current bullish sentiment in the market may lead to rising interest rates, contingent on economic data supporting the stock market [1] - The Guosheng Fixed Income team anticipates a recovery in the bond market post-holiday, driven by improved redemption pressure due to new public fund fee regulations and enhanced overall allocation strength as bank indicator pressures ease [1] Group 2 - The Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF (551030) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond Index, which selects bonds with AAA ratings and implied ratings of AA+ and above. This ETF offers advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, high transparency, and high efficiency in subscription and redemption, which help diversify investment risks and improve capital efficiency [2] - Huaxi Securities believes that the policy dividends will create a broad market space for Sci-Tech bonds, with the Sci-Tech Bond ETF being the only indexed tool for technology sector bonds, expected to highlight its long-term allocation value and market influence [2] - Penghua Fund has established a long-term strategy for "fixed income tool-type products" since the second half of 2018, actively positioning itself in various fixed income index products and aims to become a domestic expert in fixed income indices [2]

新年伊始贵金属走高， 黄金从上一交易日触及的两周低点回升，其他贵金属也缩减了过去一周积累的 一些跌幅。现货金上涨0.8%至每盎司4,346.69美元，从周三触及的两周低点回升。现货金12月26日曾触 及4,549.71美元的纪录高位。美国2月期金上涨0.5%，至4,360.60美元。黄金在2025年全年大涨64%，创 1979年以来最大年涨幅。对美联储降息和进一步宽松政策的押注、地缘政治冲突、各国央行的强劲买需 及上市交易基金持仓增加，都推动了黄金去年的涨势。投资者目前预计美联储今年至少会降息两次。现 货银上涨2. 1%，至每盎司72.75美元，周一曾创下83.62美元的历史新高。 白银2025年大涨147% ，涨幅 远超黄金，成为有记录以来涨幅最大的一年。现货铂金上涨0. 2%，报每盎司2,057.74美元，周一曾升至 2,478.50美元的历史高点，去年涨幅达127%，也是有记录以来最强劲的年度表现。现货钯金上涨2.4%， 至每盎司1,642.90美元，去年全年涨幅达76%，为15年来最佳。（智通财经） ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, indicating a favorable outlook for future growth and profitability [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant sell-off in technology stocks, which has adversely affected market sentiment, particularly in precious metals like silver and gold, which have seen historical price fluctuations [5]. - Analysts predict a forthcoming bullish trend in the market, suggesting potential recovery and growth opportunities for investors [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Overview**: The report discusses the recent downturn in technology stocks and its impact on the overall market, particularly the volatility in precious metals [5]. - **Analyst Predictions**: There is an expectation of a rebound in the market, with analysts forecasting a potential uptrend in stock prices, especially in sectors that have been previously undervalued [5].

Group 1 - The latest spot price of London gold is $4355.41 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $23.76 per ounce, or 0.55% from the previous trading day [1] - The highest price during the day reached $4355.92 per ounce, while the lowest dipped to $4322.53 per ounce [1] - The previous closing price was $4331.65 per ounce, and the opening price today was $4329.39 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in early December, signaling a "pause" in monetary policy actions [2] - Analysts expect the upcoming meeting minutes to indicate that further rate cuts will only occur if necessary, reflecting a cautious stance among officials [2] - There is a division among officials regarding inflation and growth risks, with some advocating for a cautious approach due to inflation concerns, while others focus on the labor market and support maintaining a loose monetary policy [2] Group 3 - The daily trend for London gold is weakening, currently in a repair phase, with a significant bearish candle formed yesterday [3] - The gold price has broken below the upward channel's lower boundary and is now in a downward channel, indicating limited rebound potential [3] - The market shows a strong wait-and-see sentiment, as reflected by a significant decrease in trading volume compared to the previous day [3]