近期，全球金融市场波动加剧，新兴市场股票与货币遭遇重创，预计将录得近三周以来的最大跌幅。此 番动荡的根源在于美国科技股的大规模抛售，直接冲击了投资者对高风险资产的偏好。 据数据显示，MSCI新兴市场货币指数下滑0.3%，而涵盖发展中经济体股票的相应指数更是大幅下跌 1.3%。在这一背景下，台币与韩元表现尤为疲软，成为领跌货币。同时，半导体巨头台积电在股市中 的跌幅居首，进一步加剧了市场的不安情绪。 Faergemann进一步表示，他个人预测美联储将在9月采取降息措施，并在此后的12个月内，每季度都将 继续降息。他强调："这与我们预测的'软着陆'情景相吻合。我们认为，这样的政策走向对信贷市场， 包括新兴市场信贷而言，是有利的。然而，也需要注意到，当前市场估值可能已出现了一定程度的过度 膨胀。" 来源：https://www.cnu.com.cn/character/202508/106962.html PineBridge Investments的投资组合经理Anders Faergemann分析指出："前夜科技板块的剧烈震荡严重挫 伤了市场情绪，这与欧洲市场此前展现的积极态势形成了鲜明反差。" 美联储的货币政 ...

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - The potential for tariff adjustments may reshape supply chains and increase inflation, supporting gold prices [1] - The market anticipates a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could lower the dollar and bond yields, benefiting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Spot gold faced resistance at the key level of $3,400, reaching a two-week high of $3,409 before retreating due to short sellers [1] - The price trend is still forming an ascending triangle pattern, although a brief drop below the upward trend line last week has weakened this formation [1] - Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment, with a daily RSI of 57 and a positive MACD, although the ADX indicates insufficient trend strength [3] Group 3 - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, pushing silver above the short-term support level of $37.87 [5] - If silver maintains above this level, it may challenge the 14-year high of $39.53; however, if it falls below, it could drop to $36.90, with the 50-day moving average providing the next support [5] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest buying on a pullback at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, with further upside potential to $39.00 if broken [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, which is below expectations, and a notable downward revision of June's figures from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] Labor Market Data - July's unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - The labor market is described as being in a state of balance due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand [1] Economic Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is exacerbating the slowdown in job growth, alongside actions that reduce labor supply by targeting immigration [1] - Some economists believe that the window for the Federal Reserve to reinitiate easing policies is closing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the risks of rising prices, emphasizing the importance of its independence for price and macroeconomic stability [1] Group 1 - The central bank needs to observe whether food inflation will slow down as predicted [1] - Price trends are currently rising but remain below 2%, which is the reason for maintaining an accommodative policy [1] - The risk of lagging behind the yield curve is not considered high at this moment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risks to economic growth are still tilted to the downside, as stated by Lagarde, which is not surprising given that trade uncertainties have not changed significantly [1] Group 1 - The dovish stance suggests that the Eurozone may still require additional support from accommodative policies [1]

Macroeconomic Outlook - Goldman Sachs updates China's wage growth index [1] - Near-term significant easing policies are less likely [1] - Expect incremental policies in the second half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the potential reasons for a rate cut in July, emphasizing that the easing policy is not politically motivated [1]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,542.26 tons on June 30, with an increase of 18.8 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $36.33 per ounce on June 30, up 0.46%, with a daily high of $35.59 and a low of $36.33 [1][2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet expressed confidence in the progress of a significant bill aimed at comprehensive tax reform, which passed the Senate with a narrow margin [2] - The bill may lead to a substantial increase in the fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting demand for precious metals [2] - Anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2025, exceeding 60 basis points, is expected to support gold prices during periods of low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty [2]

Group 1 - The core narrative of inflation concerns has weakened, leading to a strong performance in the U.S. bond market in the first half of 2025, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 35 basis points, the largest decline in five years [1][3] - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, has contributed to a decrease in oil prices from over $75 per barrel to below $65, alleviating inflation fears [3] - Despite increased tariffs leading to higher import costs for businesses, consumer inflation has remained low, with a mere 0.1% month-over-month increase in May, below the expected 0.2% [3][4] Group 2 - Economists believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with significant price increases potentially reflected in upcoming data [4] - Market participants have reduced their inflation concerns and adjusted their yield expectations downward, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December 2025 [5] - The expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair succeeding Powell has intensified, with market analysts predicting a higher likelihood of declining interest rates if economic conditions remain weak [6]

Core Insights - A member of the Bank of Japan indicated that due to the tendency of the US, Europe, and emerging economies towards accommodative policies, Japan's economy may experience unexpected growth or face inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - The potential for unexpected growth in Japan's economy is linked to global monetary policies [1] - The accommodative stance of major economies could lead to inflationary pressures in Japan [1]