□ 李守伟徐勤村 绿色发展是中国式现代化的鲜明底色。当前，我国经济社会发展已进入加快绿色化、低碳化的高质量发 展阶段。党的二十届四中全会提出，"以碳达峰碳中和为牵引，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，筑 牢生态安全屏障，增强绿色发展动能"，为绿色金融赋能气候治理提供了根本遵循与行动指引。 构建政策协同机制，提升制度保障效能。政策协同是破解气候治理碎片化难题的关键，需构建跨部门、 跨区域、跨层级的协同联动体系。包括完善顶层制度设计，推动环保、金融、气象等多部门数据共享， 为金融工具创新提供数据根基。强化财政金融政策联动，建立财政贴息、风险补偿、税收优惠的组合激 励举措，以更好支持绿色信贷发展、降低绿色债券融资成本等；设立气候风险补偿基金，按一定比例补 偿金融机构绿色信贷不良贷款，提高金融机构放贷积极性；将气候风险纳入金融机构宏观审慎评估框 架。健全跨区域协同机制，组建区域气候治理联盟，共享创新经验与资源，形成全域协同的治理格局。 深化市场工具创新，挖掘碳资产价值潜力。市场创新是释放气候治理内生动力的核心，需聚焦碳资产价 值转化，构建多元化、多层次的市场体系。其一，完善碳市场运行机制，优化碳配额分配方式，拓宽市 场 ...

1月29日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2026年2月复旦碳价指数结果。此 次公布了2026年2月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2026年12月全国CEA价格指数、2026年2月全 国CCER价格指数以及2026年2月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 在发布环节，研究中心总结了1月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 77.54元/吨，相较于2025年12月的日均收盘价63.27元/吨显著上涨约22.55%。本月碳价整体呈现高位宽 幅震荡的特征，月初开盘后快速拉升至78元/吨附近，随后在73至82元/吨之间反复波动，多次出现单日 涨跌幅超过5%的情况，反映市场情绪分歧较大、短期波动加剧。第二，成交量方面，本月碳配额日均 成交量为62.97万吨，相较12月的205.14万吨减少约70%，符合履约结束后交易动机减弱、市场活跃度回 落的典型特征。尽管整体成交规模收缩，月内仍出现单日放量情形，如1月7日成交量骤增至337万吨， 反映部分机构与企业仍在进行年初配额结构布局或策略调整。整体来看，市场呈现"价稳量缩"的后履约 期态势，价格韧性凸显，但交易节奏明显 ...

发布日期:2026-01-29 关税潜忧仍在,EUA高位回落 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格86.4欧元/吨(-1.27%)，投标覆盖比1.48; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价87.13欧元/吨(-1.44%),成交3.70万手(0.93)。 信号强度:1(0为空仓,立1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:暂无新增。 逻辑 其他:(1欧洲议会下周将重新审议欧盟-美国贸易协议:(2欧洲同意大幅提升北海涡轮 机部署,目标为到2050年达到100吉瓦。 风险 1、欧盟经济衰退;2、欧盟增加拍卖以筹措资金;3、排放上限弱化 图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 EUA拍卖量 CBAM证书价格 拍卖收入 EUA拍卖价格 投标覆盖比 (万欧元) (欧元/吨) (欧元/吨) (万吨) 2026-01-26 23436 271. 25 86. 40 89. 54 1.48 2026-01-23 109. 30 2. 42 9565 89. 54 87.51 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-季节性图 图表3: EUA拍卖投标覆盖比-李节性图 —2022 —2023 ——2024 ——2026 ...

生态环境部公布的最新数据显示：截至2025年底，全国碳市场已完成3个履约周期的配额清缴，配额累 计成交量8.65亿吨，成交额576.33亿元。市场平稳有序运行，活力稳步提升。 2025年，全国碳市场交易规模增长但碳价出现下跌。2025年配额成交量2.35亿吨，同比增长约24%；年 度成交额146.30亿元，同比下降约20%。 2025年，我国碳市场运行呈现哪些特点？未来需从哪些方面完善？近日发布的《全球和中国碳市场回顾 与展望(2026)》系统阐述了上述问题。《中国化工报》记者采访了该报告的执笔人——北京理工大学管 理学院教授、博士生导师，能源与环境政策研究中心副主任王科。 实现首次扩围市场规模显著扩大 王科介绍，2025年全国碳市场最大的亮点是实现首次扩围，将钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业纳入配额管理， 成为增强市场有效性的关键举措。 "全国碳市场2019—2023年度仅纳入发电行业，行业类型单一，参与主体高度同质，碳价发现与跨行业 减排引导功能有限。2025年3月《扩围方案》发布后，市场实现3方面突破。一是规模显著扩大，覆盖企 业数量由每年2200家提升至约3700家，覆盖排放量由每年约50亿吨提升至80亿吨以上 ...

全国碳市场启动至今已4年有余，行业扩容、标准优化、制度升级仍在推进中。我们也期待"市场之 手"能更好发挥作用，推动越来越多的企业从"要我减排"变成"我要减排"，越来越多的资本向绿色领域 聚集，越来越多的低碳技术从实验室走向生产线，持续释放绿色转型的红利。 如果说有偿分配是"动力源"，那数据质量就是碳市场的"生命线"，容不得半点掺假。碳市场就像一 场"减排竞赛"，数据不准，就好比运动员手里的计时器出了错，公平性无从谈起。如今，碳数据管理迈 入精细化、智能化阶段，让每一笔碳排放都"有据可查、有数可依"。在一些大电厂里，自动监测设备24 小时监控着碳排放数据，数据准确率超过99%，企业还能因为数据质量高享受"简化核查"的便利；而在 钢铁厂，大数据、区块链技术构建的碳排放管控平台，把从炼钢到轧材的全流程碳排放都管了起来，既 避免了合规风险，还能通过数据分析找到减排关键点。实际上，只有数据准了，企业才知道自己减排空 间在哪，投资者才敢放心入场，碳市场才能真正发挥作用。而"奖优汰劣"的机制更让企业不敢怠慢—— 数据质量高的少跑腿，数据差的受约束，倒逼企业把数据管理当成"必修课"。 有了动力和底线，碳市场还需要金融活水的有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing development and optimization of local carbon markets in China, highlighting the tightening of quota management and the early release of carbon emission allowances as part of the country's dual carbon goals and the evolution of the national carbon market [1][4]. Group 1: Carbon Quota Management - Beijing's ecological environment bureau announced the pre-allocation of 2025 carbon emission quotas, which will be 70% of the 2024 approved quotas for key emission units that completed their 2024 quota compliance [3]. - Shanghai's carbon emission trading system for 2025 will have a total quota of 80 million tons, significantly reduced from 2024, signaling a tightening control on emissions [4]. - Tianjin's ecological environment bureau set a maximum adjustment amount of 5% of the annual carbon emission quota for 2025, promoting paid allocation and market regulation [4]. Group 2: Changes in Pre-allocation Timing - The pre-allocation of carbon quotas has been systematically advanced, with the deadline for 2025 quotas set for January 16, 2026, indicating a shift in policy focus towards enhancing market activity and liquidity [5][6]. Group 3: Expansion of Carbon Market Coverage - Local carbon markets are expanding from focusing solely on industrial sectors to include non-industrial sectors such as data centers, buildings, and transportation, reflecting a new phase of collaborative development [7]. - In Shanghai, the inclusion of sectors like aviation and commercial buildings into the carbon control framework marks a significant transition towards mandatory market mechanisms for carbon emissions [7]. Group 4: Alignment with National Regulations - Local carbon markets are moving towards comprehensive standardization, aligning closely with national regulations, as seen in the revision of Tianjin's carbon trading management measures to match the national framework [8]. Group 5: Need for Cross-Departmental Collaboration - As non-industrial sectors are integrated into local carbon markets, there is a recognized need for tailored policies that address the unique characteristics of these sectors, including carbon accounting and regulatory enforcement [9]. - The establishment of a cross-departmental mechanism for carbon emission accounting and data management is deemed essential for effective implementation [9]. Group 6: Implications for Corporate Carbon Management - The early release of carbon quotas necessitates that companies adopt a year-round carbon management approach, integrating carbon costs into their operational decisions [10]. - Companies are encouraged to develop internal monitoring systems for carbon emissions and to proactively manage carbon assets, including exploring financing options through carbon quotas [10].

Core Viewpoint - China's green finance is undergoing a significant transition, shifting from a focus on quantity to efficiency and from policy-driven to mechanism-driven growth [2] Group 1: Green Credit - Green credit remains the core and stable pillar of China's green finance system, with a projected balance of approximately 43.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.9% increase from 36.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 [3][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, green loans contributed 6.47 trillion yuan to the total loan increment, accounting for 43.9% of the total loan growth, indicating a shift from a temporary policy tool to a normalized direction for bank lending [6] Group 2: Green Bonds - The green bond market has shown a significant recovery in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of approximately 914.9 billion yuan from January to November, surpassing the total of 681.4 billion yuan for 2024 and nearing the historical high of 2022 [7] - Financial institutions dominate the green bond issuance, with green financial bonds accounting for about 492.3 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy, green infrastructure, and low-carbon transition projects [7] Group 3: Carbon Market - As of November 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of the national carbon market reached 818 million tons, with a total transaction value of 54.575 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.81% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for 2025 [10] - The carbon market is characterized by stable transaction volumes but a downward trend in prices, indicating a "stable volume, weak price" market feature [10] Group 4: Strategic Transition - The period from 2024 to 2025 is identified as a critical transition point from "growth in quantity" to "optimization in structure" for green finance, with a shift in policy focus towards the quality of fund allocation, emission reduction performance, and risk constraints [13] - By 2026, green finance is expected to further establish its "infrastructure-type" position within the financial system, transitioning from thematic investments to long-term asset allocations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The "2026 Energy Economic Forecast and Outlook Research Report" was released, highlighting the development trends and challenges in China's energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Development Outlook - The report on China's energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates that a sustainable internal driving force for the new energy system has been established, with traditional fossil energy consumption expected to enter a historical downward trend [2]. - The development of new energy is seen as a key pathway for macroeconomic counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation, contributing significantly to both qualitative and quantitative economic growth [2]. Group 2: Energy Economic Situation - The 2026 China Energy Economic Index report suggests that the macroeconomic situation in 2025 improved steadily with the support of the energy economy, and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to maintain strong momentum alongside batteries and photovoltaics in 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for the energy sector to enhance quality and efficiency through "anti-involution" policies, supported by traditional energy sources [3]. Group 3: Global Energy Transition - The global energy transition index report indicates that by 2024, the overall energy transition is expected to surpass 2015 levels, although the polarization of energy trade networks has increased system vulnerability [3]. - China ranks 13th globally in energy transition, with potential for improvement in sustainability dimensions [3]. Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil price analysis predicts that in 2026, the fundamental support for oil prices will weaken, leading to a more relaxed overall market structure, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices expected to average between $53-63 and $49-59 per barrel, respectively [3]. Group 5: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market report highlights significant growth in the national carbon market in 2025, with an expanded coverage scale and enhanced policy influence and market expectations [4]. - Future efforts are needed to boost market trading vitality and align with global carbon pricing mechanisms and cross-border emission reduction rules [4]. Group 6: Low-Carbon Computing Services - The low-carbon computing services report indicates that China's computing industry is entering a critical transformation phase focused on green, low-carbon, and efficient services [4]. - The report calls for the establishment of a low-carbon computing service system that integrates various market types and enhances sustainability [4].

Market Overview - The trading data for December 2025 shows significant fluctuations in prices and volumes, with a total trading volume of 5.08 million tons and a total trading value of 2290 million yuan [1][2]. Price Trends - The closing prices for the last three days of December 2025 were 1.28 yuan/ton, 3.07 yuan/ton, and 0.73 yuan/ton, indicating a notable increase on December 30 before a drop on December 31 [1][2]. - The highest price recorded was 3.07 yuan/ton on December 30, while the lowest was 0.73 yuan/ton on December 31 [1]. Regional Performance - In terms of regional trading volumes, Hubei recorded 4.31 million tons, Guangdong 9.95 million tons, and Fujian 10 million tons, indicating strong activity in these areas [3]. - The trading value in Guangdong was 6.28 billion yuan, while Hubei and Shenzhen had values of 3.07 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively [3]. Summary of Trading Activity - The total trading volume across all regions was 2290 million yuan, with a significant contribution from Hubei and Guangdong [2][3]. - The average trading price varied, with notable prices of 4.00 euros/ton on December 29 and 5.50 euros/ton on December 30 [4].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for January 2026, indicating a buy price expectation of 66.13 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 74.14 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in December 2026 is projected to be 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, reflecting an upward trend in carbon pricing [1] - The buy price index for January 2026 is 165.33, while the sell price index is 167.28, indicating a stable market outlook [1] Group 2 - The research center reported that the price of green certificates for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation in 2025 is expected to rise, with centralized project certificates priced at 5.93 CNY/unit, an increase of over 25% [2] - The price index for distributed project green certificates is 113.83, while biomass power generation certificates are priced at 4.6 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase across all categories [2] - The price ranking from highest to lowest remains centralized project certificates, distributed project certificates, and biomass power generation certificates [2] Group 3 - In December, the average closing price of CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, a notable increase of approximately 3.27% compared to November's average closing price of 59.87 CNY/ton [3] - The trading volume for carbon allowances in December averaged 201.28 million tons, a decrease of 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons, yet the market remained active with significant trading days [3] - The highest single-day trading volume was recorded on December 23, reaching 357.39 million tons, indicating robust market activity despite the overall decline in average volume [3]