据熟悉资金流向的外汇交易员称，对冲基金一直是本周欧元看涨走势的主要推手，它们大举买入如果欧 元走强就能获利的普通期权和奇异期权。 此外，策略师表示，欧元前景仍将主要受欧元区与美国利率差异的主导。市场普遍预期美联储明年将进 行一系列降息，这可能会打压美元，进而提振欧元。 "利率降低和美元走弱是相伴而行的，"东方汇理资产管理公司全球货币管理主管Andreas Koenig表示， 他认为特朗普将影响美联储在中期选举前进一步放松政策，"我认为首先发生的是美元走弱，然后是 （美国）经济加速增长。" 这些资金流向表明，等到决策者结束会议时，欧美汇率将在该水平之上交易。 在美联储本周连续第三次降息以及欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔发表鹰派言论后，欧元徘徊在两个多月来的高 点附近。目前期权市场对于欧洲央行12月18日决议的情绪是近三个月来最看涨的。 在彭博社的一项调查中，超过60%的受访者表示，欧洲央行接下来更有可能提高借贷成本而不是降低， 这与10月份相比是一个显著的转变，当时只有三分之一的人持此观点。然而，他们并不认为这会很快发 生：存款利率预计将在12月18日以及接下来的两年内维持在2%。 在决议前买入波动率的成本达到了三个月来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Euro is experiencing a rebound against the US dollar due to diverging monetary policies between the US and the Eurozone, alongside marginal improvements in the Eurozone economy [1][2] - The divergence in monetary policy is a key driver of exchange rate fluctuations, with market expectations for a 60% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, contrasting with the ECB's hawkish stance [1][2] - Economic data shows resilience in the Eurozone, with Germany's services PMI at 51.4 and Eurozone GDP growing by 0.1% in Q3, indicating a recovery supported mainly by the services sector [2][3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a bullish sentiment for the Euro, with a "double bottom" pattern forming at the 1.1500 level and a "golden cross" occurring between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - The exchange rate fluctuations are impacting trade and investment, with recommendations for Eurozone exporters to lock in forward exchange rates and multinational companies to consider early currency purchases to manage financial risks [3] - Investors are advised to monitor key signals such as US non-farm payroll data and Eurozone inflation reports, while focusing on the support at 1.1550 and resistance at 1.1580 for trading strategies [3]