据熟悉资金流向的外汇交易员称，对冲基金一直是本周欧元看涨走势的主要推手，它们大举买入如果欧 元走强就能获利的普通期权和奇异期权。 此外，策略师表示，欧元前景仍将主要受欧元区与美国利率差异的主导。市场普遍预期美联储明年将进 行一系列降息，这可能会打压美元，进而提振欧元。 "利率降低和美元走弱是相伴而行的，"东方汇理资产管理公司全球货币管理主管Andreas Koenig表示， 他认为特朗普将影响美联储在中期选举前进一步放松政策，"我认为首先发生的是美元走弱，然后是 （美国）经济加速增长。" 这些资金流向表明，等到决策者结束会议时，欧美汇率将在该水平之上交易。 在美联储本周连续第三次降息以及欧洲央行执委施纳贝尔发表鹰派言论后，欧元徘徊在两个多月来的高 点附近。目前期权市场对于欧洲央行12月18日决议的情绪是近三个月来最看涨的。 在彭博社的一项调查中，超过60%的受访者表示，欧洲央行接下来更有可能提高借贷成本而不是降低， 这与10月份相比是一个显著的转变，当时只有三分之一的人持此观点。然而，他们并不认为这会很快发 生：存款利率预计将在12月18日以及接下来的两年内维持在2%。 在决议前买入波动率的成本达到了三个月来 ...

Group 1 - The current trend of the US dollar appears to be more aligned with changes in economic growth expectations rather than fluctuations in interest rate differentials [1]

Core Insights - Traditional currency strategies on Wall Street are failing, leading to confusion among even the most experienced forex traders [1][4] - The dollar has unexpectedly depreciated significantly this year, with declines exceeding 10% against the euro and Swiss franc, influenced by Trump's tax and tariff policies [1][4] - A currency fund index has returned only 0.6% this year, potentially marking the worst annual performance since 2017 [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traders are struggling to understand the rapid and severe changes in the market, with previously reliable trading signals now frequently failing [4][5] - The traditional reliance on interest rate differentials to predict currency movements has become ineffective, as evidenced by the euro's 13% rise against the dollar this year [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rates are maintained between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the European Central Bank has lowered rates to 2%, which should theoretically support a strong dollar [6] Group 2: Changing Correlations - The expected correlation between the dollar and other assets, such as oil, has weakened, complicating trading strategies [10][11] - The dollar, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has shown instances of moving inversely to the VIX fear index, indicating a shift in market behavior [10] - New market forces, including capital flowing out of the U.S. and foreign investors purchasing dollar-hedging products, are emerging but are difficult to track due to a lack of relevant data [11] Group 3: Trader Sentiment - Traders express a sense of confusion and hesitation in establishing positions due to the failure of traditional models and strategies [5][6] - There is a growing trend among traders to adopt a more cautious approach, executing simpler and smaller-scale trades in response to increased uncertainty [11]