作为衡量仓位和情绪的指标的一周风险逆转指标显示，自欧洲央行暗示已完成宽松政策以来，市场对欧元看涨期权的需求稳步上升。 来自存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据也证实了这一点：在周一交易的欧元兑美元期权中，超过三分之二是看涨押注，市场对行权价高于1.20的期权有 着显著的兴趣。 据熟悉资金流动的、因未获公开发言授权而要求匿名的外汇交易员称，先前曾通过复杂结构寻求看涨敞口的对冲基金，正转向对上涨的简单押注，这是市场 信心日益增长的迹象。 随着交易员们为本周美联储的降息做准备，欧元正迈向四年来的最高水平，美联储的降息将巩固其与欧洲央行日益分化的政策轨迹。 周二，欧元兑美元汇率攀升至自7月3日以来的最高点，逼近1.18关口，这一货币对在2025年已上涨近14%，有望创下有记录以来最佳的九个月表现。 若欧元兑美元汇率突破7月份1.1829美元的高点，将标志着自2021年9月以来的最强水平，期权市场暗示，这可能为冲向备受关注的1.20关口奠定基础。 欧元的需求正受到市场预期的支撑，即在美联储被视为即将开启宽松周期之际，欧洲央行将不会进行进一步的降息。年底前美联储将进行三次25个基点降息 的前景，正增强着这一欧洲共同货币的 ...

Core Insights - The euro has risen to its highest level since July 3, reaching 1.1791 USD, marking a 0.3% increase and nearly a 14% rise since 2025, the best nine-month performance on record [1] - A potential breakthrough above the July high of 1.1829 USD could set a new peak since September 2021, with options trading indicating a possible approach to the significant 1.20 USD level [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could create a divergence between the euro and European Central Bank rates, enhancing the euro's appeal [1] Market Sentiment - The one-week risk reversal indicator shows increasing demand for euro call options since the European Central Bank hinted at the end of its easing policy, with over two-thirds of euro-dollar options traded being bullish [2] - There is particularly strong demand for options with strike prices above 1.20 USD, indicating growing investor confidence [2] - Hedge funds that previously sought bullish opportunities through complex structures are now shifting to simpler bets on growth, reflecting an increase in market sentiment [2] Tactical Positioning - According to Morgan Stanley strategists, the tactical positioning of the dollar is neutral ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, suggesting that if the Fed confirms expectations for three rate cuts this year, the euro may have further upside potential [6]