12月2日，近期，比特币交易者正为潜在的价格下跌提前布局，CWG Markets外汇认为，新年初BTC可 能跌破8万美元。根据Derive联合创始人Nick Forster的分析，市场持仓数据显示，投资者正在增加防御 性策略，尤其是在12月26日到期的期权中，84000美元和80000美元的行权价未平仓合约集中度明显上 升，这表明交易者对下行风险高度警惕。CWG Markets外汇认为，这种仓位布局意味着2026年初比特币 低于8万美元的概率正在显著增加，同时显示短期市场情绪趋向谨慎，投资者在配置资产时更偏向防御 性。 从价格表现来看，比特币现货价格约在87000美元左右，较10月8日创下的126000美元历史高点已下跌约 30%，CoinDesk数据显示市场承压明显。CWG Markets外汇认为，这一跌幅不仅反映了近期市场的调 整，也显示投资者对比特币未来走势存在分歧，短期内可能出现大幅波动。Forster指出，目前短期波动 率已经超过长期波动率，这意味着市场预期新年前后比特币价格将出现较大起伏，底部尚未确认，投资 者仍需保持谨慎。CWG Markets外汇分析，随着价格接近关键支撑位，交易者可能采取更多 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price briefly fell below $100,000, experiencing a daily decline of over 5% [1] Group 1 - Bitcoin price reached a low of below $100,000 on November 5 [1] - The decline in Bitcoin price was more than 5% within the day [1]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in Bitcoin prices is accompanied by significant warning signals from both the options market and miner activities, indicating potential further downside risks [1][3]. Options Market Analysis - The Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew has risen above 10%, a notable increase from the neutral range of -6% to +6%, suggesting that professional traders are willing to pay a premium for put options to hedge against price declines [3][5]. - On Deribit exchange, the trading volume of put options exceeded that of call options by 50%, marking the highest level in over 30 days, indicating growing market pressure and a shift in trader sentiment towards bearishness [5]. Miner Activity Insights - Since October 9, miners have transferred approximately 51,000 Bitcoins to Binance, valued at over $5.7 billion, representing the largest inflow to an exchange since July [6][8]. - On October 11 alone, miners deposited over 14,000 Bitcoins to Binance, coinciding with a significant market event, which raises concerns about potential selling pressure [6][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that when miners transition from holding to selling, it often precedes significant price declines and negative market sentiment [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights a growing bearish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, indicated by a significant increase in the delta skew of Bitcoin options, which has surpassed 10% [1][3] - There is a notable influx of Bitcoin from miners to exchanges, with approximately 51,000 Bitcoins transferred to Binance since October 9, suggesting potential selling pressure [1][8] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The delta skew indicator for Bitcoin options has risen above 10%, reflecting a willingness among traders to pay a premium for put options to hedge against price declines [3][5] - The trading volume of put options has exceeded that of call options by 50% on Deribit, marking the highest level in over 30 days, indicating increased demand for downside protection [5][6] Group 2: Miner Activity - Miners have transferred 51,000 Bitcoins to Binance, valued at over $5.7 billion, with a significant portion occurring shortly after a major market downturn [8][10] - Historical patterns suggest that when miners begin to sell, it often leads to negative outcomes for the market, indicating a shift from holding to selling behavior [11][12][13]