智通财经APP获悉，近几周对比特币构成压力的沉重抛售压力似乎正在缓解，这燃起了市场对于本轮残 酷跌势接近尾声的希望。周二，截至发稿，比特币徘徊在88,000美元附近，从此前跌至七个月低点的颓 势中有所恢复。比特币最近的这轮暴跌曾引发大规模头寸清算，并使整个数字资产市场的市值蒸发超过 1万亿美元。 交易员的情绪依然谨慎，这凸显了市场的脆弱状态。比特币仍有望创下自2022年以来最差的月度表现， 而投资该代币的交易所交易基金(ETF)似乎也将遭遇自推出以来最严重的月度资金外流。 不过，在比特币小幅反弹之后，一些人看到了乐观的理由。Orbit Markets联合创始人Caroline Mauron表 示，在比特币期权市场，购买下跌保护的成本已大幅下降，一周看跌期权相对于看涨期权的溢价已从上 周五的2025年高点11%降至4.5%左右。她表示："这表明市场紧张程度已显著下降，投资者预计目前已 经见底。" 另一个引人关注的指标是比特币的14日相对强弱指数，在从10月初急剧下跌后，目前位于32。该指数在 30或以下通常表明资产超卖，而70或以上则相反。与此同时，比特币期权的隐含波动率——衡量未来预 期价格波动的指标——已回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, indicating that the current monetary policy is overly tight and poses increasing risks to the U.S. economy [1][3] Market Reaction - Milan's statements have led to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, with a noticeable split in bullish and bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin [1][3] - Following Milan's speech, Bitcoin's network transaction volume increased, and institutional investors like Grayscale slightly increased their holdings by 1.2%, indicating a shift towards bullish positions [3][4] Trading Strategies - Long-term investors are adopting Bitcoin bullish strategies based on expectations of a liquidity increase and asset appreciation due to potential rate cuts, with XBIT decentralized exchange seeing a 15% increase in long positions post-speech [3][6] - Short-term traders are more focused on the uncertainty of policy implementation, leading to a 58% increase in the frequency of opening and closing positions in Bitcoin perpetual contracts [4][6] Derivatives Market - The derivatives market reflects a divergence in market sentiment, with a 22% increase in CME Bitcoin options open interest and record high trading volumes for both $40,000 call options and $35,000 put options [4][6] Role of Decentralized Platforms - Decentralized trading platforms like XBIT are becoming crucial for investors, offering transparency and reducing counterparty risk in a volatile market environment [6][8] - XBIT's multi-source liquidity aggregation technology has helped maintain low trading slippage, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [6][8]

Group 1: Bitcoin Options Market - Over $5.4 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire, with Bitcoin trading near $102,159 and open interest clustered at critical strike levels [1] - The maximum pain point for Bitcoin options is at $107,000, indicating where most traders may incur losses as expiration approaches [2] - The Put-to-Call ratio (PCR) is 0.79, reflecting cautious optimism among traders who are slightly bullish despite recent volatility [3] - Total open interest stands at 45,802 contracts, with calls (25,570) outnumbering puts (20,233), indicating a notional value exceeding $4.6 billion [4] - Open interest clustering near key strikes suggests a market awaiting decisive direction, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $100,000 [5] Group 2: Ethereum Options Market - Ethereum options are trading near $3,347, with a maximum pain point close to $3,800, and a put/call ratio of approximately 0.9, indicating balanced yet defensive positioning [6] - Open interest for Ethereum is skewed toward calls, with 109,997 calls versus 103,571 puts, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.94 and a notional value of $716.85 million [7] - Traders are favoring defensive strategies such as calendar spreads and straddles to protect against downside while maintaining upside exposure [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Volatility - Despite warnings of structural fragility and end-of-cycle risks, many traders continue to sell options aggressively, indicating a persistent short volatility stance [8] - Concerns are focused on key levels for Bitcoin ($105,000, $102,000, and $97,000) and Ethereum ($3,650 and $3,400), fueling discussions about potential downside or ongoing market choppiness [8]

"当黄金冲破4000美元、纳斯达克指数狂揽16.17%、标普500稳步上涨11.95%时，被奉为'数字黄金'的比特币全年回报率仅5.78%——连银行定期存款都比 不上！" 2025年初，特朗普就职典礼上的加密狂热欢呼犹在耳边，现实却给了市场一记重拳。 自特朗普1月20日就职以来：比特币上涨5.78%、标普500指数上涨11.95%、纳斯达克指数上涨16.17%。来源：X 10万美元关口三次冲击三次溃败，矿工抛售潮席卷链上，机构资金连夜转向AI赛道，而期权热潮改写游戏规则，比特币的2025年，写满了"失望"二字。 但真正的投资者该看清：所有被时代寄予厚望的资产，都要经历从"野蛮生长"到"主流合规"的阵痛，比特币的2025，不是神话破灭，而是向成熟资产的艰 难蜕变。 潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳，而加密市场的潮水，正在经历一场前所未有的周期重置。 2025年的加密市场，早已告别了"凭信仰就能赚钱"的蛮荒时代。 上市公司持有比特币总供应量超5%，机构化程度空前提升；衍生品市场爆发式增长，期权未平仓合约创下630亿美元历史新高；比特币与宏观经济、传统 金融的联动性越来越强，再也不是可以脱离市场规律独立行走的"另类资产"。 ...

这两大指标的同步恶化，直接导致市场避险情绪升温，并对比特币的价格支撑位构成严峻考验。比特币 价格在周四一度跌至107600美元。 与此同时，矿工的动向也引发了市场的警觉。根据CryptoQuant的数据，自10月9日以来，矿工地址已向 币安交易所存入了约51000枚比特币。这一自7月以来最大规模的资金流入交易所的行为，从历史上看， 往往发生在价格疲软之前。 最新的市场动态显示，交易员正为潜在的更多下行风险做准备。据Cointelegraph今日报道，比特币期权 市场的一项关键指标"delta skew"已攀升至10%以上，表明专业交易员正以溢价购买看跌期权。这通常被 视为市场看空情绪的典型信号。 作者：龙玥，华尔街见闻 在近期比特币价格剧烈波动之际，来自期权市场和矿工链上活动的两个关键领先指标，正发出越来越强 的警示信号。 矿工大规模转账，历史预示抛售压力 除了衍生品市场的信号，比特币生态系统中最关键的参与者之一——矿工的动向，也为市场增添了不确 定性。 CryptoQuant的数据显示，自10月9日以来的七天内，矿工地址向币安交易所转移了51000枚比特币，价 值超过57亿美元。其中，仅在10月11日，矿工 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant increase in the proportion of put options in the Bitcoin options market, rising to 28% with a transaction amount exceeding $1.15 billion [1] - The majority of the transactions are concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money contracts set to expire this week and next month, with a trading range between $10.4K and $10.8K [1] - The skew has deepened negatively, reflecting heightened short-term volatility and panic levels approaching those seen after the market crash on the 11th [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within a narrow range of 2.3% since a sharp decline from $112,500, with a lack of momentum attributed to the U.S. Labor Day holiday and regulatory market closures [2] - The confidence in the $108,000 support level for Bitcoin is diminishing, as indicated by the derivatives market, with a potential liquidation risk of $390 million in leveraged long positions if the price drops below $107,000 [4][9] - The annualized premium for Bitcoin's monthly futures is currently at 7%, remaining stable within a neutral range of 5% to 10%, with previous bullish signals noted on August 24 [5] Group 2 - A significant Bitcoin whale has transferred $4 billion worth of Bitcoin to Ethereum (ETH), highlighting a "rotation" phenomenon as altcoins appear to benefit from the accumulation by enterprises [5] - The Deribit skew indicator shows a 7% premium for put options compared to call options, indicating a bearish sentiment among whales and market makers regarding the $108,000 support level [7] - A net outflow of $127 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signals unease among holders, reflecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties or Bitcoin-specific weaknesses [7]

Group 1 - Digital assets are under pressure as traders await Powell's highly anticipated speech on Friday [1] - Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen outflows for four consecutive trading days, with a total withdrawal of $1.9 billion [1] - The momentum driven by companies accumulating crypto assets appears to be weakening [1] Group 2 - Options trading activity indicates a shift towards defensive strategies, with the put/call ratio for contracts expiring on August 22 rising to 1.33 [1] - There will be $3.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring, with the largest open interest concentrated on $110,000 put options, reflecting market concerns about a short-term pullback [1] - Peter Chung, head of research at Presto, notes that the market is more sensitive to hawkish signals from Powell than dovish ones, as investors position themselves for uncertainty surrounding the speech [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price surpassed $117,000 on July 11, 2025, marking a historic high and indicating the potential onset of a digital asset era [3][10] Group 1: High-Level Risks and Rational Investment - Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin's price surge, high volatility remains a significant concern, with market sentiment fluctuations and potential regulatory tightening posing risks [3][8] - Investors entering at high levels must maintain rationality and be cautious of short-term adjustments that could lead to asset drawdowns [3][8] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Application Expansion - The widespread adoption of the Lightning Network has significantly improved transaction efficiency, transitioning Bitcoin from a speculative tool to a viable payment method [5] - An increasing number of businesses, including major e-commerce platforms and automotive manufacturers, are accepting Bitcoin, enhancing its real-world application value [5][6] Group 3: Global Macroeconomic Environment - Bitcoin's price increase is closely tied to the global macroeconomic landscape, with ongoing liquidity releases by major economies since 2022 contributing to inflationary pressures [6][8] - Bitcoin's decentralized and non-inflatable characteristics have attracted investors seeking a hedge against inflation and financial risks, positioning it as a digital gold alternative [6][8] Group 4: Institutional Investment Influx - The surge in Bitcoin's price is largely driven by institutional investors, with approximately 65% of large hedge funds and pension funds investing in Bitcoin and other major crypto assets by mid-2025 [8] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock have introduced Bitcoin ETFs and options products, facilitating easier access for retail investors [8] Group 5: Five-Year Tenfold Growth - Since first surpassing $11,700 in August 2020, Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations, achieving a tenfold increase to over $117,000 by July 2025 [9] - The rise is attributed to increased global acceptance of digital assets, continuous institutional inflows, and the proliferation of blockchain technology [9] Conclusion: A New Financial Chapter? - Bitcoin's breakthrough above $117,000 symbolizes a profound transformation in the global financial landscape, indicating the convergence of traditional and emerging digital financial systems [10] - In future asset allocation, Bitcoin and blockchain technology are expected to play increasingly vital roles, transitioning from the periphery to the mainstream [10]