Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].