日期：2025年11月23日 烧碱：震荡偏弱 PVC：低位震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：震荡偏弱 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.6%，较上周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最 大+2.9%至95.7%；华北+2.1%至79.9%，其中山东+2.8%至92.2%。华东、华中、西南有装置检修、减产，开工下滑，华东降幅最大 | | --- | --- | | | 4.8%至74.7%，华中-1.8%至76.5%，西南-3.4%至96.6%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题，本周广西、山西 ...

烧碱：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2357 780 2438 81 2025 年 11 月 12 日 以山东地区为基准，11 月 11 日山东液碱市场成交不佳，部分涨库存企业价格继续走跌，虽有省外订单 签订，但预计支撑有限。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业未来可能减产 装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯 碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同时出口承压， 导致国内供应压力进一步增大。 整体看，烧碱估值高度始终受氧化铝减产预期压制。成本端，液氯降价虽然能导致烧碱成本抬升，但只 能导致低位估值修复，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间始终有限。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链 负反馈。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is under pressure in the short - term after a valuation repair, and in the long - term, the negative feedback in the industrial chain may occur due to alumina production cuts. The situation can only be changed by supply - side production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2336, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 102 [2]. - On November 5, in Shandong, individual enterprises in southwestern and southern Shandong lowered their prices. Due to increased supply in the west, high - price products had poor sales, so they were sold at reduced prices [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices over the weekend increased the cost of caustic soda significantly. However, caustic soda enterprises did not cut production, resulting in insufficient upward drivers [3]. - The pattern of high production and high inventory of caustic soda continues, and the market is continuously shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other. The winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3]. - In the long run, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain, and only supply - side production cuts can change the situation. So, pay attention to the supply changes under the background of liquid chlorine and low profits [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply increase is obvious and the downstream demand is average, leading to a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventory and high pressure last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart devices in North and Central China, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The alumina downstream has a loose supply and low - profit situation, which may continue to suppress the industry's stocking demand; non - aluminum downstream has rigid procurement with little change. The liquid caustic soda inventory in factories is at a high level, increasing the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. Recently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has turned negative, the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed, some enterprises have reduced production, and the market expectation has improved. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2400 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract of caustic soda is 128064 hands (a decrease of 7183 hands), the net position of the top 20 futures is - 9167 hands, the trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 254103 hands (a decrease of 218494 hands). The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2503 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal is 649 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 375 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 75.5 yuan/ton (a decrease of 124.5 yuan/ton) [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2790 yuan/ton. From October 24th to 30th, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% month - on - month to 84.3%. From October 25th to 31st, the national alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.41% month - on - month to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% month - on - month to 44.26 tons. From October 24th to 30th, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC rebounds with macro - sentiment, but supply is ample and demand is average. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and V01 - 05 should be reverse - arbitraged when prices are high [3][4] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. There are new production capacities, and demand is affected by environmental control and seasonal factors. The market should be observed, and the impact of new alumina plant procurement needs to be noted [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4775 yuan/ton (+59). The East China basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 49), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.9) [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 71.65% (- 3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 73.74% (- 1.40%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3] - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports were 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the export of PVC products may be affected by anti - dumping investigations [3] - Futures: The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2361 yuan/ton (+20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 139 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 965.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1034.24 yuan/ton (- 101.01) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 80.80% (- 0.60%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina operating rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New production capacities have reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production. The supply is affected by new capacity releases and maintenance situations [3] - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency has decreased. The alumina operating rate has been slightly affected by environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will enter the off - season [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased [3] - Price support: The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi and ongoing caustic soda tenders may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory state [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price continues to decline. Supply is affected by increased maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in production. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. Inventory has increased, and the overall market situation is complex, with the short - term market expected to oscillate [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance increased, and production decreased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production decreased by 0.2 million tons to 83 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. In some regions, such as the Northwest and North China, the load decreased [3] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - peak, with insufficient resumption of non - aluminum demand. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased slightly, and the overall production of lithium hydroxide was basically flat after offsetting increases and decreases [3] - **Inventory**: The shipment pressure has increased recently, and caustic soda inventory has accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more has increased [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures**: The futures price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined significantly after the holiday. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The profit of chlor - alkali is at a high level, and the factory's operating load is maintained at a high level. With the increase in new maintenance this week, production has decreased. Post - holiday demand has improved slightly, and the supply pressure of caustic soda is expected to ease [9] - **Spot**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. The subsidy for liquid chlorine is low, and the price has dropped to - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali is good [9] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price has stabilized [34] - **Upstream Production**: Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has decreased slightly [37] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China has increased, and production has decreased [40] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has decreased [41] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [44] - **Alumina**: The start - up rate of alumina has recovered, and inventory has accumulated. The start - up rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices [56][57] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: The start - up of non - aluminum industries is stable but lower than the same period last year. It has entered the seasonal off - peak, and the start - up rate has begun to decline [66][67] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [74] - **Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in September and October, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the caustic soda futures showed a significant downward trend, with short - sellers actively increasing positions to push down the futures price, and there were stop - loss phenomena among long - sellers. The main reasons include weak spot prices, the non - decline of liquid chlorine prices contrary to expectations, and the continuous decline of alumina spot and futures prices. In the later stage, the caustic soda futures may be supported by the liquid chlorine price, especially during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the caustic soda futures should be treated with a volatile mindset [5]. Summary by Directory 01 Overview - **Supply**: In the period from September 19 - 25, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 0.6% week - on - week increase. Northwest had new device production cuts and maintenance, while North China and East China had increased loads after device maintenance. Next week, except for the Southwest region, other six regions are expected to increase their loads, with an estimated capacity utilization rate of about 85.9% and a weekly output of about 845,700 tons [5]. - **Demand - Alumina**: China's alumina production was 1.855 million tons, a decline from last week's 1.861 million tons. Shandong's alumina production remained flat at 626,000 tons. The liquid caustic soda purchase price of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong dropped to 740 yuan/ton, with a 100% converted price of 2,313 yuan/ton. Alumina prices and production profits declined recently [5]. - **Demand - Viscose Staple Fiber**: China's viscose staple fiber production was 90,000 tons, a 30 - ton increase from last week. As of September 25, 2025, the total daily output of 20 domestic viscose staple fiber enterprises was around 12,960 tons. The physical inventory of domestic viscose staple fiber factories was 128,200 tons, a 50 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 32,000 - ton increase compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 33.26%. The downstream demand for viscose staple fiber was weak [5]. - **Demand - Printing and Dyeing**: As of September 25, 2025, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.15%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang was 66.25%, remaining flat compared to the previous data and a 1.25% increase year - on - year. The overall startup rate of dyeing factories in Zhejiang remained stable, with orders featuring "short, frequent, and fast" characteristics. Most dyeing factories planned to have a 2 - 3 - day holiday during the National Day [5]. - **Export**: In August, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 213,500 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 66,800 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 391,200 tons (wet tons), a 3.4% week - on - week increase and a 26.26% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of domestic liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 20.78%, a 0.64% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of Shandong liquid caustic soda was 2,500 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was - 100 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 306 yuan/ton, at a historically low level. The decline in liquid caustic soda prices compressed the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a volatile mindset for single - side trading; no strategy for arbitrage and options [5]. 02 Price - The report presents price trends of Shandong chlor - alkali spot, flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, basis, inter - month spreads, raw salt, and coal, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [7][10][13][16] 03 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: Data on China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda device loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [20][21] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: Information on the liquid caustic soda inventory of Chinese sample enterprises, caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profits is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [23][24] - **Chlor - Alkali Device Maintenance Plan**: This week, many chlor - alkali devices have resumed operation after maintenance, and there are also some devices under maintenance. In the future, multiple enterprises have maintenance plans, including specific time and capacity information [26] 04 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Data on China's alumina production, Shandong's alumina production, alumina profit, Shandong alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchase price, and alumina inventory are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [29][30][31][32] - **Textile Industry**: Information on viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, inventory available days of viscose staple fiber in Chinese rayon yarn enterprises, textile enterprise weekly startup rate, order days, in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate is presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [34][35][37][38] - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: Data on pulp production, paper product production, and the inventory available days of paper products in upstream factories are provided, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [39][40] - **Export**: Data on China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume of caustic soda, and monthly export volume of caustic soda are presented, with data sources from Mysteel and compiled by Zhongtai Futures [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new capacity and some restarted plants. Although downstream demand has increased with more pre - sales, social inventory is rising, and export expectations are weakening in Q4. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation with potential for further profit compression [4]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been decreasing, while the orders for 50% caustic soda are improving. Production may increase slightly as some plants resume operation. Demand support is wavering, but cost support remains, and the profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures: The closing price of the main PVC contract is 4891 yuan/ton (- 47), with an East China basis of - 171 yuan/ton (+ 7) and a South China basis of - 81 yuan/ton (+ 17) [2]. - Spot: East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4720 yuan/ton (- 40), and South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4810 yuan/ton (- 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The calcium - carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium - carbide - based PVC gross profit is - 657 yuan/ton (- 155), the ethylene - based PVC gross profit is - 652 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.1) [2]. - Inventory and Operation: Factory inventory is 30.6 tons (- 0.4), social inventory is 53.5 tons (+ 0.3), the calcium - carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.91% (- 3.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 72.00% (- 5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.43% (- 3.96%) [2]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.6 tons (+ 6.7) [2]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2535 yuan/ton (- 69), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 35 yuan/ton (+ 69) [2]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1300 yuan/ton (+ 30) [2]. - Upstream Profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 179.78 yuan/ton (+ 0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1361.25 yuan/ton (- 20.00) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.83 tons (+ 2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.18 tons (- 0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate is 81.90% (- 1.50%) [3]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 86.23% (+ 1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.76% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.52% (+ 1.75%) [3]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply: Shaanxi Beiyuan plans to conduct maintenance, and some previously maintained plants have restarted, with expected lower maintenance losses. Newly - commissioned plants are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [4]. - Demand: Downstream pre - sales are increasing, and overall downstream operation has improved, but the trading atmosphere is average. Exports are increasing in the short - term but are expected to weaken in Q4 [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is rising, and the absolute inventory level is high [4]. - Price: The futures price is under pressure due to high - level warehouse receipts and hedging [4]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply: Some previously maintained plants in Hubei and Inner Mongolia have restarted, and new capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [4]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but high - price sales are difficult, and inventory is accumulating. Non - aluminum downstream operation is increasing, but there is a fear of high prices [4]. - Price: The price of 32% caustic soda has decreased, while the price of 50% caustic soda has stabilized [4]. - Profit: The profit is at a medium level compared to the same period, with cost support [4]. Strategy - **PVC** - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Inter - month Spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - 05 when the spread is high [5] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [5] - **Caustic Soda** - Unilateral: Wait - and - see [6] - Inter - month Spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - 05 when the spread is low [6] - Inter - commodity Spread: None [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The PVC market is volatile with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant, social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price. The烧碱 market has seen a continuous decline in spot prices, with demand support showing signs of loosening, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm and new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton (-12), with an East China basis of -178 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -98 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide price was 2,890 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+10), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was - 4.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 76.91% (-3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 72.00% (-5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.43% (-3.96%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2,604 yuan/ton (-37), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 104 yuan/ton (+37) [1][2]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (-90.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,381.25 yuan/ton (-56.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.83 tons (+2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.18 tons (-0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 65.76% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.52% (+1.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Although downstream demand has increased, the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has been continuously decreasing. Production may increase slightly, and demand support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm during the peak season and the start - up rhythm of new alumina plants in Guangxi [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy.