氯碱日报 | 2025-08-26 烧碱下游继续上调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5047元/吨（+28）；华东基差-297元/吨（-8）;华南基差-187元/吨（+2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4750元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4860元/吨（+30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格630元/吨（+0）；电石价格2755元/吨（+0）；电石利润-39元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-223元/吨（+8）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-592元/吨（-52）；PVC出口利润14.1美元/吨（+1.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-2.1）；PVC社会库存50.8万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率76.07%（-3.14%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.44%（-5.48%）；PVC开工率75.02%（-3.82%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量72.5万吨（-6.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2732元/吨（-9）；山东32%液碱基差-45元/吨（+40）。 市场分析 PVC： PVC受黑色板块情绪影响，期价反弹，近期需关注宏观及 ...

入 期 市 市 服 热 线 客 ll 方 图 有 网 型 ted ML www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ta 10 ntal | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | | ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 碱数据目报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | | 从业资格证:F3054270 2025/08/25 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | 指标 | | 2025/08/21 2025/08/22 | | 涨跌值 | 行情综述 | | 山东 | | 200 | 200 | 0 | | | 原盐 | 江苏 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | | 西北 | | 200 | 200 | | | | 电石 | 山东 | 2755 | 2755 | | | | 内蒙 | | 2210 | 2260 | 50 | | | 山东 | | -200 | -200 | 0 | | | 液氯 | 江苏 | -200 | -200 | 0 | 今日国内液碱市 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-14 液碱去库，山东主力下游采购价上调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 市场分析 PVC： 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5016元/吨（-31）；华东基差-136元/吨（+31）;华南基差-76元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4880元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-252元/吨（-231）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-489元/吨（-10）；PVC出口利润6.9美元/吨（-2.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.7万吨（-0.8）；PVC社会库存48.1万吨（+3.3）；PVC电石法开工率77.83%（+3.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.55%（+7.31%）；PVC开工率77.75%（+4.49%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量83.2万吨（-2.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2481元/吨（-21）；山东32%液碱基差19元/吨（+21）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions today, with prices in most regions remaining stable. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily, while the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased. Chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong had good shipments and low inventory pressure. Due to some enterprises having low loads or undergoing maintenance, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda remained stable, and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda rose steadily. Demand in Jiangsu was average, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda decreased slightly. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 - 865 yuan/ton, and the local large - scale alumina factory's purchase price was 750 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1270 - 1350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The PVC price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan, and the futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10. With intense long - short game, it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Price Changes - **Raw Salt**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest remained unchanged at 200, 250, and 200 respectively [1]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 to 2325, while the price in Shandong remained at 2780 [1]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest changed to - 100, - 50, and - 600 respectively, with increases of 100, 30, and 0 [1]. - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 800, 890, etc. [1]. - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 1300, 1400, etc. [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, the Southwest, etc. remained unchanged [1]. - **PVC**: The price in Shandong increased by 30 to 4830, and the price in Inner Mongolia remained at 4580 [1]. - **Futures and Related Indicators**: The futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10 to 2502, and the basis in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 [1]. 2. Price Spreads - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 100 in Shandong [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 625 in Shandong [1]. - **Regional Spreads of 50% Caustic Soda and Caustic Soda Flakes**: Remained unchanged in various regions [1]. 3. Profits and Electricity Prices - **Chlor - Alkali Profits**: In Shandong, it increased by 100 to - 165, and in the Northwest, it increased by 20 to 818 [1]. - **Electricity Prices**: Remained unchanged in Shandong and Inner Mongolia at 0.75 and 0.5 respectively [1].

期货研究报告|氯碱月报 2025-08-03 供需压力仍存，氯碱短期承压 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 PVC 基本面分析：供应方面，前期检修回归复产，且氯碱利润支撑下整体开工走高， 叠加渤化与万华新增 90 万吨产能 8 月逐步量产，PVC 产量预期继续回升，供应端压力 仍较大。需求端，PVC 下游制品开工延续同期低位，企业采购积极性偏低，内需延续 疲弱；出口端印度进口 PVC 政策与雨季的影响，或仍会拖累出口持续性表现。产量上 升、需求疲软下，PVC 社会库存预期延续累库格局。前期 PVC 受宏观扰动上涨，老旧 产能 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The supply pressure of PVC remains high due to limited new maintenance, slight decline in overall operating load, and expected new production capacity in June - July. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, with the possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The cost support is not strong, and the price is driven up by market sentiment. It is recommended to take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term [3][4]. - Caustic Soda: The overall operating rate of caustic soda is at a high level, and the supply pressure will increase with expected new production capacity in June - July. The demand from the alumina sector has a slight recovery, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The short - term price follows the basis repair logic, but the inventory is high, and the comprehensive profit has room for compression. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [3][4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4900 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+9), and the South China basis is - 50 yuan/ton (-11) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit is - 8.3 US dollars/ton (-4.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory is 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 76.74% (-0.09%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2288 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 306 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 900.3 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 267.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1284.03 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 36.65 tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.85 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.20% (+0.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 80.80% (+0.24%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Limited new maintenance, slightly lower overall operating load, high supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Weak domestic demand, slow inventory depletion rate, and possible inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - Cost: Weak cost support [3]. - Price: Driven up by market sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: High overall operating rate, increasing supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Slight recovery in alumina demand, weak non - aluminum demand, and continuous negative feedback from the demand side [3]. - Price: Short - term basis repair logic, but high inventory and lack of upward driving force [3]. Strategy - PVC: Take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term. Pay attention to export dynamics and new production progress [4]. - Caustic Soda: Take a cautious and bearish view, as the inventory is high and the comprehensive profit has room for compression [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-10 检修驱动有限，烧碱盘面震荡下行 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4816元/吨（+26）；华东基差-136元/吨（-6）;华南基差-26元/吨（-16）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4680元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4790元/吨（+10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润80元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-426元/吨（+121）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-15）；PVC出口利润3.0美元/吨（-2.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存39.8万吨（+1.4）；PVC社会库存36.1万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率79.90%（+4.19%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.13%（-0.58%）；PVC开工率77.47%（+2.87%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.6万吨（+8.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2308元/吨（-27）；山东32%液碱基差442元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...

2025 年 6 月 10 日 【市场状况分析】 6 月烧碱检修叠加氧化铝补库仍能支撑市场，关键在于囤货的持续性。山东某氧化铝企业的烧碱库存低， 假如后期累库，按历史高位发货量 1.7-1.8 万吨，其烧碱库存累库 5000-6000 吨/天，那再次降价可能到 6 月下旬之后。但补库之后，在需求负反馈的情况下（非铝弱势，氧化铝企业和出口贸易商囤货或放缓），市 场仍会倾向做空氯碱利润。 从供应端来看，烧碱后期 6 月份仍然存在较多新增检修，尤其山东检修较多，但由于利润不亏损，厂家 负荷普遍处于高位。未来仍要关注耗氯下游对烧碱供应的传导影响，虽然从一季度看，由于烧碱的高利润， 耗氯下游的影响变得相当有限。 成本端，考虑到今年煤价和电价整体下滑，自备电厂企业毫无减产动力，网电企业也仍有较大盈利空 间，烧碱估值的下方空间会打开，但同样需要关注液氯价格变动。 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | | 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | ...

资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 4834 | 4680 | -154 | -37 | 【现货消息】 PVC 现货市场震荡企稳为主，午后受黑色盘面情绪影响盘中价格上涨，然 PVC 供应基本面未有变化， 且成本端价格维持偏弱，远期需求仍有不确定性忧虑，现货成交重心波动有限，华东地区电石法五型现汇库 提在 4620-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4800-5050 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。市场持续做空氯碱利 润，导致 PVC 期货价格创年内新低。不过由于 PVC 估值低位，空头止盈意愿也较强，因此不宜追空。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PV ...

资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货研究 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2371 870 2719 348 2025 年 6 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 880 元/吨，较上期价格持稳。假期市场整体维稳，个别企 业大稳小动。假期送主要下游 32 碱量偏大，但随着省外订单发货，量呈现减少。 【市场状况分析】 6 月烧碱检修叠加氧化铝补库仍能支撑市场，关键在于囤货的持续性。山东某氧化铝企业的烧碱库存低， 假如后期累库，按历史高位发货量 1.7-1.8 万吨，其烧碱库存累库 5000-6000 吨/天，那再次降价可能到 6 月下旬之后。但补库之后，在需求负反馈的情况下（非铝弱势，氧化铝企业和出口贸易商囤货或放缓），市 场仍会倾向做空氯碱利润。考虑到烧碱现货难上涨，短期也难下跌，因此市场走出正套格局的下跌行情。 ...