1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to active replenishment by non-aluminum downstream last week, liquid caustic soda plant inventories were seasonally reduced, but inventory pressure remains high. Shandong chlor-alkali profits decreased month-on-month and entered a state of theoretical loss. Currently, there are still few maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants, and there is no signal of production reduction in the industry, so the high operating rate is expected to continue in the short term. In February, some alumina enterprises will undergo maintenance due to factors such as environmental protection and flexible production, and the consumption of the alumina industry is expected to decline marginally. As the Spring Festival approaches, some non-aluminum downstream enterprises will gradually take holidays and stop work, leading to a seasonal decline in non-aluminum demand for caustic soda. Today, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong turned negative, deepening the theoretical loss of Shandong chlor-alkali, and strengthening the cost support for caustic soda. With the game between weak supply and demand and cost support, caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The daily range of SH2603 is expected to be around 1900 - 2000, and the daily range of SH2605 is expected to be around 2120 - 2200 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the trading volume was 260,268 lots, a decrease of 187,719 lots; the open interest was 112,328 lots, a decrease of 20,346 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts was -17,061 lots, a decrease of 9 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, and the converted 100% caustic soda price was 1844 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan. The price in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 237.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From January 30 to February 5, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. From January 31 to February 6, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.71% month-on-month to 84.06%. From January 30 to February 5, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43% month-on-month, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 22.74% month-on-month to 27.91%. As of February 5, SH2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 1954 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating loads of plants in Central and South China increased, while those in North, East, and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the average operating rate of caustic soda in the whole country changed little. Affected by the maintenance of some domestic alumina plants, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the whole country was 471,400 wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 2.97%. From January 30 to February 5, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 121 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driver and expected to be mainly oscillating [3] Core View - This week, the maintenance of caustic soda decreased, production increased, but the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, and the inventory of some sample enterprises increased. The cost of raw materials decreased, energy cost remained flat, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The spot price was at a low level, and the disk price rebounded slightly. The short - term market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3][6] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 87.4%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and East China decreased, while the load in Southwest Sichuan increased [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. The comprehensive start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.09%, a 0.72% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Inventory**: Bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 520,300 wet tons, a 2.11% week - on - week increase and a 110.11% year - on - year increase. The storage ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 30.02%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The storage ratios in North, Northwest, Central, East, South, Southwest, and Northeast China increased week - on - week. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China decreased by 4.76%, and that in East China decreased by 15.71% [3] - **Basis**: Neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around - 37, with the disk price at a premium [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. This week, the raw material cost decreased, energy cost remained flat, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the price of caustic soda continued to decline, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine remained stable, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute disk price is low, and the main contract is at a slight premium [3] - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. There is no relevant policy for the time being [3] - **Investment View**: The short - term disk has no obvious driver and is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for the time being [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - This week, the Shandong spot price fell, and the futures oscillated. The disk price rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine dropped, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was in the red, there was less maintenance, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the seasonal off - peak season, downstream demand was for rigid needs, traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak, and export transactions were average. Shandong faced great inventory accumulation pressure, the spot price was not yet stable. The current trading was a game around cost, and the price of caustic soda was prone to fluctuations. It is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [6] - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts increased their positions [25] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Due to the tight supply of coal, the electricity price increased [33] - **Upstream Production**: The start - up remained at a high level, and inventory was destocked [35] - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38] - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [39] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42] - **Alumina**: The start - up of alumina recovered, and inventory was accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, port inventory of bauxite increased, alumina profit was poor but there was no significant production cut, and the supply of bauxite was in surplus [54][62] - **Non - aluminum Demand**: The non - aluminum industry entered the seasonal off - peak season, and the start - up declined. The printing and dyeing market was weak, and the short - term market recovery was weak [63][64] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate rebounded [71]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract down by 1.91% to 2105.0 CNY/ton as of December 5 [1] Inventory and Production - As of December 4, caustic soda enterprise inventory reached 504,800 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons or 7.45% from the previous week; over the past month, inventory has accumulated an increase of 90,000 tons, representing a 21.70% rise [2] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more reached 504,800 tons (wet tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.43% and a year-on-year increase of 79.32% [2] Market Position and Trading - As of December 4, the top 20 futures companies in caustic soda held a total of 196,700 long positions and 227,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.86; the net position was -31,200 contracts, an increase of 2,954 contracts compared to the previous day [2] Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, production load in North, Central, and East China has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda rising; however, downstream demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels compared to previous years [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that the caustic soda market continues to face downward pressure due to high inventory levels and insufficient downstream demand, although there is still some profit in the chlor-alkali sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to 2157.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% [1] Inventory and Production - As of November 27, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more reached 46.98 million tons (wet tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.89% and a year-on-year increase of 87.95% [2] - The average utilization rate for caustic soda production was 85.0%, up 0.4% from the previous week, with increases noted in North China, Central China, and East China regions [2] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The top 20 futures companies for caustic soda held a total of 178,200 long positions and 197,800 short positions, resulting in a net position of -19,600, which decreased by 1,030 from the previous day [2] - The market is characterized by a significant accumulation of inventory due to relaxed supply and moderate downstream demand, leading to a downward trend in caustic soda prices [4] Industry Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, the overall supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December, with production capacity utilization likely to increase due to the restart of some facilities in East and North China [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates a weak trend for caustic soda, with high inventory pressure and insufficient downstream demand, while the integrated profit from chlorine-alkali remains low [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to ample spot supply and average downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulated last week, resulting in high pressure. The slight increase in raw salt prices and the decline in caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices in Shandong led to a decrease in the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises. [2] - This week, the restart of several plants is expected to increase the caustic soda capacity utilization rate. Short - term alumina enterprises show no signs of large - scale production cuts, and their operation is expected to remain stable. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement. The new alumina production capacity in Guangxi is in the procurement stage, but the positive impact is limited under the background of high caustic soda production and inventory in China. The market is bearish on the future chlor - alkali profits, and the basis of the 01 contract remains high. [2] - In terms of valuation, plants above 2200 still have profit margins. Attention should be paid to the support around 2200 and the pressure around 2300. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2229 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2229 yuan/ton and 2380 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 19 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was - 19656 hands, a decrease of 2067 hands. The trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 241509 hands, an increase of 79282 hands. The position of the main caustic soda contract was 150260 hands, an increase of 5169 hands. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2375 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 217.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 656 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 125.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.5 yuan/ton. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. [2] - From November 15th to 21st, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.46%. From November 14th to 20th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.59% week - on - week to 90.09%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 66.55%. [2] - As of November 20th, SH2601 fluctuated weakly and closed at 2229 yuan/ton. Last week, the loads in North and Northeast China increased, while there were plant overhauls in East, Central, and Southwest China. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. [2] - From November 14th to 20th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 379 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week. [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is "shockingly weak" [1]. - The investment rating for PVC is "low - level shock" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report Caustic Soda - High production and high inventory patterns continue, and the market keeps shorting chlor - alkali profits. The impact of alumina's production increase and reduction expectations on caustic soda can basically offset each other. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure. Long - term alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industry chain [5]. - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. With limited cost support and no production cuts by manufacturers, it's difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [5]. PVC - The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to change in the short term. Although the futures price has reached a historical low and some devices may reduce production, the high - start and weak - demand pattern persists before the 03 contract. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year can be expected [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The load in North and Northeast China has increased, while that in East, Central, and Southwest China has decreased due to device maintenance and production cuts [5]. - Demand: The alumina industry is likely to reduce production, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. Export orders are few, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Valuation is suppressed, and high - production pressure persists in winter. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [5]. PVC - Supply: The high - production structure is hard to change in the short term. The 2026 spring and summer maintenance may be stronger than this year [7]. - Demand: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition, and domestic demand related to real estate is weak [7]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Low - level shock, stop losses on short positions, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at 4,600 and the lower support at 4,400. Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread. Inter - variety: None [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The basis of caustic soda 01 is strong, while the 1 - 5 month spread is weak [10]. - The export market still has support but is undergoing structural adjustment. The cumulative export volume of liquid caustic soda from January to September is 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.29%. It's expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year in 2025, exceeding 4 million tons [14][18]. - The FOB price in Northeast Asia is continuously falling, currently at $380 per dry ton [19]. - The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong is decreasing, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is declining. The price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, suppressing the spot market [25][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows rising production and inventory, being weak. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65% [37][38][40]. - Maintenance will significantly decrease after November. In 2025 and 2026, caustic soda production capacity will continue to be put into operation, with a growth rate of over 3% [43][45]. - In November, the large - scale industrial electricity price in Shandong has increased, raising caustic soda costs. Liquid chlorine has not provided significant subsidies, so the cost support for caustic soda is limited [46][50]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the production and profit of propylene oxide have recovered, the production of epichlorohydrin has recovered while the profit has declined, and the production of dichloromethane and chloroform has declined while the profit has recovered [53][57][62]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - In 2025, the alumina production capacity has expanded significantly, with an expected new capacity of 9.5 million tons. In 2026, the new production capacity in the first quarter is relatively concentrated, with an expected annual increase of 13.9 million tons [66][68]. - Alumina's production, inventory, and profit are showing a downward trend, and there is an expectation of production cuts. The alumina industry has a negative feedback effect on caustic soda, and the high - profit hoarding of caustic soda in late 2024 is hard to replicate [70][76]. - The pulp industry's production capacity is expanding, and the demand is in the peak season, but the terminal profit is being compressed. The production capacity of the finished paper industry is stable, and the production of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry are stable. The production of the water treatment industry is stable, and the production of the ternary precursor industry is increasing [83][90][94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating strongly, and the 1 - 5 month spread is oscillating weakly [104]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate has increased month - on - month. In November 2025, maintenance has decreased. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, and there will be no new production capacity in 2026 [110][114][115]. - The profit of the northwest integrated device is at a low level, and winter is the traditional off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, weakening the impact of profit on supply [117]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced inventory, while the social inventory is at a high level. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall start - up rate of the PVC downstream has decreased month - on - month [121][126][132]. - From January to September, the cumulative export volume is 2.9216 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 50.63%. India is still the most important export destination. The number of PVC warehouse receipts is continuously increasing [139][140].

烧碱：震荡为主 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2357 780 2438 81 2025 年 11 月 12 日 以山东地区为基准，11 月 11 日山东液碱市场成交不佳，部分涨库存企业价格继续走跌，虽有省外订单 签订，但预计支撑有限。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业未来可能减产 装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而冬季本身是氯 碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同时出口承压， 导致国内供应压力进一步增大。 整体看，烧碱估值高度始终受氧化铝减产预期压制。成本端，液氯降价虽然能导致烧碱成本抬升，但只 能导致低位估值修复，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间始终有限。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链 负反馈。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is under pressure in the short - term after a valuation repair, and in the long - term, the negative feedback in the industrial chain may occur due to alumina production cuts. The situation can only be changed by supply - side production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 5, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2336, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was 102 [2]. - On November 5, in Shandong, individual enterprises in southwestern and southern Shandong lowered their prices. Due to increased supply in the west, high - price products had poor sales, so they were sold at reduced prices [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The sharp decline in liquid chlorine prices over the weekend increased the cost of caustic soda significantly. However, caustic soda enterprises did not cut production, resulting in insufficient upward drivers [3]. - The pattern of high production and high inventory of caustic soda continues, and the market is continuously shorting the chlor - alkali profit. The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other. The winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises, and the supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3]. - In the long run, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain, and only supply - side production cuts can change the situation. So, pay attention to the supply changes under the background of liquid chlorine and low profits [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply increase is obvious and the downstream demand is average, leading to a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventory and high pressure last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart devices in North and Central China, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The alumina downstream has a loose supply and low - profit situation, which may continue to suppress the industry's stocking demand; non - aluminum downstream has rigid procurement with little change. The liquid caustic soda inventory in factories is at a high level, increasing the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. Recently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has turned negative, the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed, some enterprises have reduced production, and the market expectation has improved. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2400 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract of caustic soda is 128064 hands (a decrease of 7183 hands), the net position of the top 20 futures is - 9167 hands, the trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 254103 hands (a decrease of 218494 hands). The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2503 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal is 649 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 375 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 75.5 yuan/ton (a decrease of 124.5 yuan/ton) [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2790 yuan/ton. From October 24th to 30th, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% month - on - month to 84.3%. From October 25th to 31st, the national alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.41% month - on - month to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% month - on - month to 44.26 tons. From October 24th to 30th, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC rebounds with macro - sentiment, but supply is ample and demand is average. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and "15th Five - Year Plan" real estate policies. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and V01 - 05 should be reverse - arbitraged when prices are high [3][4] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. There are new production capacities, and demand is affected by environmental control and seasonal factors. The market should be observed, and the impact of new alumina plant procurement needs to be noted [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4775 yuan/ton (+59). The East China basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 49), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8), and the PVC export profit is - 4.6 dollars/ton (- 0.9) [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social PVC inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 71.65% (- 3.08%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 78.56% (+2.46%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 73.74% (- 1.40%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.5 tons (+8.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed production, and new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, resulting in an abundant supply [3] - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory has slightly decreased, but the absolute inventory level is high [3] - Export: In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative exports were 292.15 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.58%. However, the export of PVC products may be affected by anti - dumping investigations [3] - Futures: The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures price persists [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2361 yuan/ton (+20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 139 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 965.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 133.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1034.24 yuan/ton (- 101.01) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.43 tons (+1.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 80.80% (- 0.60%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina operating rate is 86.27% (+0.05%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 67.31% (+0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 88.61% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: New production capacities have reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production. The supply is affected by new capacity releases and maintenance situations [3] - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency has decreased. The alumina operating rate has been slightly affected by environmental control. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will enter the off - season [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased [3] - Price support: The expected commissioning of alumina plants in Guangxi and ongoing caustic soda tenders may support the caustic soda price in the next two months [3]