【PVC现货】 今日国内PVC粉市场价格走低，主流市场多数下跌15-65元/吨。PVC期货弱势震荡，现货市场一口价报 盘部分小幅下调，高价几无成交支撑，部分实单小幅商谈，基差报盘变化不大，点价成交优势较明显。 下游采购积极性不高，现货市场成交平平。华东主流现汇自提4290-4400元/吨，华南主流现汇自提4350- 4390元/吨，河北现汇送到4200-4300元/吨，山东现汇送到4270-4400元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：据卓创资讯（301299）数据显示，本周PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.12%，环比上周下降2.27个百 分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率为77.01%，环比下降2.12个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为 74.06%，环比下降2.61个百分点。 库存：截至12月18日，中国PVC生产企业厂库库存可产天数在5.3天，环比减少2.75%，企业检修及降幅 减轻市场供应，叠加企业高预售交付增加，在库天数环比下降。 【PVC行情展望】 盘面受整体宏观提振走强，但刚需市场表现谨慎，采购积极性欠佳。需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季 下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期 ...

氯碱周报 S H ：供需仍存压力累库持续 ， 预计价格偏弱运行 V ：供应压力增长 ， 价格延续底部震荡 ◼ 期权策略建议：观望 ◼ 期货策略建议：偏空思路 ◼ 期权策略建议：暂观望 01 烧碱 壹 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，虽然企业库存开始去库，部分区域下游采买存积极性，但库存水平依然偏高，短期暂无明显利好显现，下周价格仍偏看空。华东 地区下周供应仍宽裕，传统需求淡季延续，且部分省份受外围低价货源冲击致使区域内碱价下滑。山东地区延续弱势，个别企业库存下滑及液氯价格下调的支撑，省内小范围企业 调涨，主力企业价格仍维持观望。整体看需求端支撑较弱，长期看供需仍有压力。预计烧碱价格偏弱运行。 ◼ PVC主要观点：供应端下周压力不减，开工率预计维持高位。需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期PVC市场继续 维持区间整理运行。11月-次年1月处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PVC - This week, the PVC spot market continued to be weak. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase, while the demand side remains sluggish. Considering the traditional demand off - season from November to January and the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, the overall demand has weak support for PVC. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is hard to be optimistic. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures should be treated with a rebound - shorting approach, and options should be on the sidelines [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Next week, the regional supply in East China will decline, and with the monthly contract signing, if the futures market continues to weaken, the spot price in East China is expected to decline. The Shandong market is unclear, and it is necessary to track the unloading situation of major downstream industries and the trend of liquid chlorine. The main downstream, alumina, continues to accumulate inventory, and its price is weakening, with weak price transmission to caustic soda. Overall, the demand side has weak support, and in the long - term, there are still supply - demand pressures. The caustic soda price is expected to run weakly. Futures should be considered with a short - bias, and options should be temporarily on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Analysis - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand adjustments, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the futures market accelerated its decline; the market was worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the subsequent supply recovery, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectation was poor, and the futures price was seeking the bottom due to factors like cost reduction, new capacity launch, and insufficient support from alumina in the medium - term [7]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 90.29%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from last week's 89.79%. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.44%, a 3.41% increase from the previous period. There were multiple caustic soda plant maintenance situations this week, with a total maintenance loss of 3.22 tons. There are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [26][27]. Demand - Alumina is expected to have many new capacity launches in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new capacity of alumina is 1230 tons (including 200 tons of replacement), with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 15 tons from April to June [31]. Export - In October, the caustic soda export weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price and Market Analysis - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and policy expectations. The core contradiction in the PVC spot market is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken [64][65]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased. There were 2 new sets of planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 77.48%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 80.15%, a 0.58 - percentage - point increase, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.31%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase [86]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand from the real estate end has a negative impact on PVC. According to the Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so there is no positive driving force for PVC downstream [94]. Inventory - PVC inventory has slightly decreased, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [102]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.21 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 323.38 tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. The import volume in October was 1.09 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars per ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 18.64 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC temporarily boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and the end of maintenance in some production enterprises, which weakens cost support, are expected to keep the pressure on PVC high [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Supply - side Situation - PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% due to the maintenance of some devices like Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang. However, it remains at a relatively high level in recent years [3][15]. - New production capacities include 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons/year each of Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua operating at low - load after commissioning [3]. - The maintenance of production enterprises such as Shandong Xinffa is about to end, which will weaken cost support [3]. 3.2 Demand - side Situation - The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly declined. Although it exceeds the levels of the past two years, it is still at a relatively low level [3]. - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area also showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [3][21]. 3.3 Export Situation - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. However, as India's anti - dumping tax is about to be implemented, traders are starting to wait and see, and PVC is sold at a lower price to increase volume. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month [3]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level [22]. 3.5 Market Indicator Situation - The current 01 basis is - 73 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively low - neutral level [9].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with most prices increasing by 5-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed a range-bound movement before rising, while traders' quoted prices remained largely unchanged [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to overall weak spot transactions [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method saw an increase to 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China decreased by 11.11% to 5.6 days, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] PVC Market Outlook - Last week, the PVC market stabilized after a decline, showing a trend of fluctuation [3] - Supply side remains low due to ongoing maintenance, but production is expected to increase as maintenance ends next week [3] - Demand from downstream remains weak with limited orders, while raw material costs are rising but expected to stabilize [3] - The market outlook suggests continued pressure on prices, but absolute prices are considered low, indicating potential for short-term rebounds [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with price changes mostly within 0-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed weakness, but overall trading remained slightly strong, with traders' prices remaining stable [1] - Downstream purchasing activity is generally moderate, leading to a subdued overall spot transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall PVC powder operating rate is at 80.8%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 81.76%, up 1.75 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 78.54%, up 1.33 percentage points [2] - As of October 9, PVC social inventory increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] - Inventory in East China is 973,100 tons, up 4.74% week-on-week, and 22.73% year-on-year; South China inventory is 63,200 tons, up 20.52% week-on-week, and 37.34% year-on-year [2] PVC Market Outlook - The PVC operating rate has declined significantly, with increased maintenance among production companies, slightly easing market supply pressure [3] - Despite a gradual recovery in domestic and foreign trade exports post-holiday, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure, although the rate of accumulation is slowing [3] - The external macroeconomic environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the short term, potentially impacting market trends [3] - Demand during the peak season has not shown significant improvement, with a noticeable contraction in profile demand [3] - Overall, upstream inventory willingness is decreasing, but export benefits are alleviating some excess pressure [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with futures showing volatility in the morning and rising in the afternoon. However, the actual trading volume remains weak due to poor purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [1] - The mainstream cash prices for PVC in different regions are as follows: East China at 4830-4940 RMB/ton, South China at 4860-4950 RMB/ton, Hebei at 4710-4820 RMB/ton, and Shandong at 4810-4870 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.26%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC is 74.42%, down 4.79 percentage points, while the ethylene method PVC operating rate is 70.24%, up 3.29 percentage points [2] - As of July 31, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.8 days, a decrease of 3.33% week-on-week, attributed to maintenance and reduced production due to uncontrollable factors [2] PVC Price Outlook - The market has rebounded after hitting the 60-day moving average support level, leading to an increase in spot prices. However, the fundamental outlook suggests continued pressure on PVC prices due to increasing inventory and limited demand improvement [3] - New production capacities are expected to come online in August, including from Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua, which will add pressure to the PVC supply side. Downstream production rates remain low, and purchasing enthusiasm is weak, indicating a continued weak market [3] - Overall, supply and demand pressures are significant, and PVC prices are likely to continue to decline, with the price focus potentially moving lower [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have increased, with significant regional price differences observed. The PVC futures market has shown an upward trend after fluctuating within a range, while traders' basis quotes have weakened, leading to higher fixed price offers without price advantages for point pricing transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with most buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sluggish spot market transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 75.07%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the previous week. The operating load rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 76.93%, down 3.8%, while the ethylene method PVC powder load rate is 70.23%, up 4.77%. As of July 10, the social inventory of PVC has increased by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous month, but has decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. The inventory in East China is 539,300 tons, and in South China is 52,600 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - The spot market prices for PVC have stabilized, with prices pushed up by the atmosphere of the black commodities market. Currently, the supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal shift towards increased supply and reduced demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement during the off-season remains low, and foreign trade export orders are average, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory. A substantial increase in inventory may require a significant decline in exports. However, due to a recent improvement in the macroeconomic environment and a collective rebound in commodities, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the short term, with the PVC market showing a relatively strong performance. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the time being [3]