研究报告 – PVC 月报 金融研究院 报告日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 节后修复与去库预期博弈 基差收敛但库存压力仍在 2 月 PVC 市场在春节假期前后呈现"预期先行、现 实滞后"的特征：现货端（常州 SG-5）月均价约 4764 元/吨，较 1 月抬升约 2.9%；期现结构仍处于 深度贴水，但节后收敛迹象较为明确。资金层面， 节后成交与持仓同步回升，2 月日均成交约 94.8 万手、日均持仓约 163.9 万手，分别较 1 月提升约 5.9%和 5.6%。交割端，注册仓单在 2 月回落约- 4.7%，未见明显被动累库压力。基本面方面，春节 因素导致社会库存与厂库阶段性累库。成本与利润 结构有所改善，乙烯法毛利由 1 月均值亏损转为 2 月均值小幅盈利，电石法亏损收窄。展望 3 月，需 求端的复工复产与"金三银四"补库预期将推动库 存去化，但库存高位与供应弹性仍将限制趋势性上 行空间，盘面更可能在"去库验证—基差修复—利 润驱动供给回升"的链条中反复博弈。 范阿骄 一、行情回顾 （1）期货价格震荡下行，月末加速回落 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号： Z0016954 2026 年 2 ...

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have decreased, with most mainstream markets dropping by 15-65 yuan/ton [1] - PVC futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, and the spot market has seen slight price adjustments with limited high-price transactions [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to average transaction volumes in the spot market [1] PVC Production and Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information, the overall PVC powder operating rate is 76.12%, a decrease of 2.27 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 77.01%, down by 2.12 percentage points, while the ethylene method is at 74.06%, down by 2.61 percentage points [1] - As of December 18, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.3 days, a decrease of 2.75% due to reduced market supply and increased pre-sale deliveries [1] PVC Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound operation due to cautious demand and low purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The demand side remains under pressure, with seasonal declines in construction activities and reduced real estate demand negatively impacting the market [1] - Export demand, particularly from India, is limited, and international competition is fierce, leading to an overall weak demand environment for PVC [1]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Although enterprise inventories have started to decline and there is some downstream purchasing enthusiasm in some regions, inventory levels remain high. In the short term, there are no obvious positive factors, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is expected to continue range - bound operation. Supply pressure remains high next week, demand is under pressure both domestically and internationally, and cost - side support is expected to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue the weakening trend. [2][3] - Futures strategy advice: Hold short positions for caustic soda and maintain a bearish mindset for PVC; Option strategy advice: Observe for both caustic soda and PVC. [4][5] Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The caustic soda price has experienced multiple fluctuations due to factors such as macro - environment changes, alumina demand, inventory levels, and cost changes. Currently, it is expected to be weak. [8] - **Supply Situation**: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.84%, a 0.02 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.71%, an increase of 0.26%. On December 10, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China decreased by 5.14% compared to December 3, and in Shandong, it decreased by 18.12%. [27] - **Device Status**: There are multiple caustic soda plants under maintenance or with planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical, Zhejiang Juhua, and Ningbo Wanhua. The total maintenance loss this week is 239 tons. [28] - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. [32] - **Non - Alumina Downstream**: The textile starting rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber starting rate has increased. [51] - **Export Situation**: In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined. [58] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: The PVC price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and energy prices. Currently, the core contradiction is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken. [65][66] - **Profit Situation**: The industry profit has continued to deteriorate, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method. [71] - **Supply Situation**: This week, the domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased slightly. The overall operating load rate was 78.39%, a 0.62 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the calcium carbide - method PVC powder operating load rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points, and the ethylene - method PVC powder operating load rate increased by 4.75 percentage points. [87] - **Device Status**: There are multiple PVC plants under long - term shutdown, maintenance, or with planned maintenance, such as Taiwen Salt Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Ningbo Hanhua. [89] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure from both demand and industry competition. The real - estate sector still gives negative feedback on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. [95] - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with the housing sales price index and land transaction area showing certain trends. [96] - **Inventory Situation**: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year. [103] - **External Market and Export**: Some external market prices have weakened. In October 2025, PVC exports were 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. Imports were 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton. [110][121]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views PVC - This week, the PVC spot market continued to be weak. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase, while the demand side remains sluggish. Considering the traditional demand off - season from November to January and the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties in India, the overall demand has weak support for PVC. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is hard to be optimistic. It is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures should be treated with a rebound - shorting approach, and options should be on the sidelines [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Next week, the regional supply in East China will decline, and with the monthly contract signing, if the futures market continues to weaken, the spot price in East China is expected to decline. The Shandong market is unclear, and it is necessary to track the unloading situation of major downstream industries and the trend of liquid chlorine. The main downstream, alumina, continues to accumulate inventory, and its price is weakening, with weak price transmission to caustic soda. Overall, the demand side has weak support, and in the long - term, there are still supply - demand pressures. The caustic soda price is expected to run weakly. Futures should be considered with a short - bias, and options should be temporarily on the sidelines [4]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Analysis - The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand adjustments, and cost fluctuations. For example, the 8 - month contract repaired the basis, and the futures market accelerated its decline; the market was worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the subsequent supply recovery, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectation was poor, and the futures price was seeking the bottom due to factors like cost reduction, new capacity launch, and insufficient support from alumina in the medium - term [7]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 90.29%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from last week's 89.79%. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.44%, a 3.41% increase from the previous period. There were multiple caustic soda plant maintenance situations this week, with a total maintenance loss of 3.22 tons. There are also planned maintenance schedules in the future [26][27]. Demand - Alumina is expected to have many new capacity launches in the first quarter of next year and may start stockpiling in the fourth quarter. From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new capacity of alumina is 1230 tons (including 200 tons of replacement), with an estimated annual capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual output of alumina in 2025 is over 8800 tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 80 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 15 tons from April to June [31]. Export - In October, the caustic soda export weakened, and the estimated export profit declined [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Price and Market Analysis - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and policy expectations. The core contradiction in the PVC spot market is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken [64][65]. Supply - This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased. There were 2 new sets of planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 77.48%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 80.15%, a 0.58 - percentage - point increase, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 71.31%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase [86]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand from the real estate end has a negative impact on PVC. According to the Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so there is no positive driving force for PVC downstream [94]. Inventory - PVC inventory has slightly decreased, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years [102]. Export - In October 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.21 tons, with an average export price of 605 US dollars per ton. The cumulative export from January to October was 323.38 tons. The single - month export decreased by 9.91% month - on - month, increased by 34.28% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 48.88% year - on - year. The import volume in October was 1.09 tons, with an average import price of 725 US dollars per ton. The cumulative import from January to October was 18.64 tons. The single - month import decreased by 24.14% month - on - month, increased by 20.66% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 1.74% year - on - year [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC temporarily boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and the end of maintenance in some production enterprises, which weakens cost support, are expected to keep the pressure on PVC high [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Supply - side Situation - PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% due to the maintenance of some devices like Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang. However, it remains at a relatively high level in recent years [3][15]. - New production capacities include 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons/year each of Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua operating at low - load after commissioning [3]. - The maintenance of production enterprises such as Shandong Xinffa is about to end, which will weaken cost support [3]. 3.2 Demand - side Situation - The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly declined. Although it exceeds the levels of the past two years, it is still at a relatively low level [3]. - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area also showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [3][21]. 3.3 Export Situation - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. However, as India's anti - dumping tax is about to be implemented, traders are starting to wait and see, and PVC is sold at a lower price to increase volume. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month [3]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level [22]. 3.5 Market Indicator Situation - The current 01 basis is - 73 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively low - neutral level [9].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with most prices increasing by 5-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed a range-bound movement before rising, while traders' quoted prices remained largely unchanged [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to overall weak spot transactions [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method saw an increase to 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China decreased by 11.11% to 5.6 days, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] PVC Market Outlook - Last week, the PVC market stabilized after a decline, showing a trend of fluctuation [3] - Supply side remains low due to ongoing maintenance, but production is expected to increase as maintenance ends next week [3] - Demand from downstream remains weak with limited orders, while raw material costs are rising but expected to stabilize [3] - The market outlook suggests continued pressure on prices, but absolute prices are considered low, indicating potential for short-term rebounds [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with price changes mostly within 0-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed weakness, but overall trading remained slightly strong, with traders' prices remaining stable [1] - Downstream purchasing activity is generally moderate, leading to a subdued overall spot transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall PVC powder operating rate is at 80.8%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 81.76%, up 1.75 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 78.54%, up 1.33 percentage points [2] - As of October 9, PVC social inventory increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] - Inventory in East China is 973,100 tons, up 4.74% week-on-week, and 22.73% year-on-year; South China inventory is 63,200 tons, up 20.52% week-on-week, and 37.34% year-on-year [2] PVC Market Outlook - The PVC operating rate has declined significantly, with increased maintenance among production companies, slightly easing market supply pressure [3] - Despite a gradual recovery in domestic and foreign trade exports post-holiday, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure, although the rate of accumulation is slowing [3] - The external macroeconomic environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the short term, potentially impacting market trends [3] - Demand during the peak season has not shown significant improvement, with a noticeable contraction in profile demand [3] - Overall, upstream inventory willingness is decreasing, but export benefits are alleviating some excess pressure [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with futures showing volatility in the morning and rising in the afternoon. However, the actual trading volume remains weak due to poor purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [1] - The mainstream cash prices for PVC in different regions are as follows: East China at 4830-4940 RMB/ton, South China at 4860-4950 RMB/ton, Hebei at 4710-4820 RMB/ton, and Shandong at 4810-4870 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.26%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC is 74.42%, down 4.79 percentage points, while the ethylene method PVC operating rate is 70.24%, up 3.29 percentage points [2] - As of July 31, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.8 days, a decrease of 3.33% week-on-week, attributed to maintenance and reduced production due to uncontrollable factors [2] PVC Price Outlook - The market has rebounded after hitting the 60-day moving average support level, leading to an increase in spot prices. However, the fundamental outlook suggests continued pressure on PVC prices due to increasing inventory and limited demand improvement [3] - New production capacities are expected to come online in August, including from Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua, which will add pressure to the PVC supply side. Downstream production rates remain low, and purchasing enthusiasm is weak, indicating a continued weak market [3] - Overall, supply and demand pressures are significant, and PVC prices are likely to continue to decline, with the price focus potentially moving lower [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have increased, with significant regional price differences observed. The PVC futures market has shown an upward trend after fluctuating within a range, while traders' basis quotes have weakened, leading to higher fixed price offers without price advantages for point pricing transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with most buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sluggish spot market transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 75.07%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the previous week. The operating load rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 76.93%, down 3.8%, while the ethylene method PVC powder load rate is 70.23%, up 4.77%. As of July 10, the social inventory of PVC has increased by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous month, but has decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. The inventory in East China is 539,300 tons, and in South China is 52,600 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - The spot market prices for PVC have stabilized, with prices pushed up by the atmosphere of the black commodities market. Currently, the supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal shift towards increased supply and reduced demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement during the off-season remains low, and foreign trade export orders are average, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory. A substantial increase in inventory may require a significant decline in exports. However, due to a recent improvement in the macroeconomic environment and a collective rebound in commodities, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the short term, with the PVC market showing a relatively strong performance. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the time being [3]