氯碱周报 S H ：下游需求较弱 ， 价格难言乐观 V ：供需仍处过剩格局 ， 价格趋弱运行 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ PVC主要观点：本周PVC现货市场延续弱势，下周供应端开工率会有提升。需求端维持低迷，关注12月亚洲合同价格公布。11月-次年1月处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室 外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面，前期印度官方取消2024年发布的进口PVC BIS认证政策，有利于国内PVC进入印度市场，虽然印度取消BIS认证， 但是反倾销税预期执行，预期外需难以提升。整体需求端对PVC支撑乏力，供需仍处过剩格局，价格难言乐观，虽然绝对价格偏低但难以形成向上驱动，预计延续底部趋弱格局。 ◼ 期货策略建议：反弹偏空对待 ◼ 期权策略建议：观望 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，下周华东区域性供应下降，但下周涉及月度合同签订，弱盘面持续趋弱预估下周华东现货报价还将下行。山东市场尚不明朗，还 需跟踪主力下游卸车情况及液氯的走势。主力下游氧化铝继续累库，价格趋弱运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC temporarily boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and the end of maintenance in some production enterprises, which weakens cost support, are expected to keep the pressure on PVC high [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Supply - side Situation - PVC开工率 decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% due to the maintenance of some devices like Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang. However, it remains at a relatively high level in recent years [3][15]. - New production capacities include 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons/year each of Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua operating at low - load after commissioning [3]. - The maintenance of production enterprises such as Shandong Xinffa is about to end, which will weaken cost support [3]. 3.2 Demand - side Situation - The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly declined. Although it exceeds the levels of the past two years, it is still at a relatively low level [3]. - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area also showed significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of November 16, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 19.73% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [3][21]. 3.3 Export Situation - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. However, as India's anti - dumping tax is about to be implemented, traders are starting to wait and see, and PVC is sold at a lower price to increase volume. Last week, export orders increased month - on - month [3]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Although the inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level [22]. 3.5 Market Indicator Situation - The current 01 basis is - 73 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively low - neutral level [9].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with most prices increasing by 5-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed a range-bound movement before rising, while traders' quoted prices remained largely unchanged [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to overall weak spot transactions [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method saw an increase to 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China decreased by 11.11% to 5.6 days, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] PVC Market Outlook - Last week, the PVC market stabilized after a decline, showing a trend of fluctuation [3] - Supply side remains low due to ongoing maintenance, but production is expected to increase as maintenance ends next week [3] - Demand from downstream remains weak with limited orders, while raw material costs are rising but expected to stabilize [3] - The market outlook suggests continued pressure on prices, but absolute prices are considered low, indicating potential for short-term rebounds [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with price changes mostly within 0-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed weakness, but overall trading remained slightly strong, with traders' prices remaining stable [1] - Downstream purchasing activity is generally moderate, leading to a subdued overall spot transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall PVC powder operating rate is at 80.8%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 81.76%, up 1.75 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 78.54%, up 1.33 percentage points [2] - As of October 9, PVC social inventory increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] - Inventory in East China is 973,100 tons, up 4.74% week-on-week, and 22.73% year-on-year; South China inventory is 63,200 tons, up 20.52% week-on-week, and 37.34% year-on-year [2] PVC Market Outlook - The PVC operating rate has declined significantly, with increased maintenance among production companies, slightly easing market supply pressure [3] - Despite a gradual recovery in domestic and foreign trade exports post-holiday, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure, although the rate of accumulation is slowing [3] - The external macroeconomic environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the short term, potentially impacting market trends [3] - Demand during the peak season has not shown significant improvement, with a noticeable contraction in profile demand [3] - Overall, upstream inventory willingness is decreasing, but export benefits are alleviating some excess pressure [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with futures showing volatility in the morning and rising in the afternoon. However, the actual trading volume remains weak due to poor purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [1] - The mainstream cash prices for PVC in different regions are as follows: East China at 4830-4940 RMB/ton, South China at 4860-4950 RMB/ton, Hebei at 4710-4820 RMB/ton, and Shandong at 4810-4870 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.26%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points week-on-week. The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC is 74.42%, down 4.79 percentage points, while the ethylene method PVC operating rate is 70.24%, up 3.29 percentage points [2] - As of July 31, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.8 days, a decrease of 3.33% week-on-week, attributed to maintenance and reduced production due to uncontrollable factors [2] PVC Price Outlook - The market has rebounded after hitting the 60-day moving average support level, leading to an increase in spot prices. However, the fundamental outlook suggests continued pressure on PVC prices due to increasing inventory and limited demand improvement [3] - New production capacities are expected to come online in August, including from Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua, which will add pressure to the PVC supply side. Downstream production rates remain low, and purchasing enthusiasm is weak, indicating a continued weak market [3] - Overall, supply and demand pressures are significant, and PVC prices are likely to continue to decline, with the price focus potentially moving lower [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for PVC is to short on rallies, with an outlook of oscillating downward [1] Core View of the Report - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate continues to decline, and downstream demand is weak. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement needs time. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, PVC faces significant pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The PVC operating rate is down 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and downstream operating rate is also low. The Indian BIS policy is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. Social inventory is increasing, and the real - estate market improvement is slow. New capacity is about to be put into production, and demand is not substantially improved, so PVC has great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2509 contract decreased 0.50% to close at 4980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34,568 lots in open interest to 967,347 lots [2] Basis - On July 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4840 yuan/ton. The V2509 contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 140 yuan/ton, strengthening by 80 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Some PVC plants are under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into operation in 2025, and another 1.1 million tons/year is expected to be put into operation in July [4] Demand - Real - estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to May, but year - on - year figures are still negative. The year - on - year decline in investment, sales, and completion area is large. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased 38.17% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of July 10, PVC social inventory increased 5.37% week - on - week to 623,600 tons, 34.15% less than the same period last year, and the inventory is still relatively high [6]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have increased, with significant regional price differences observed. The PVC futures market has shown an upward trend after fluctuating within a range, while traders' basis quotes have weakened, leading to higher fixed price offers without price advantages for point pricing transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with most buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sluggish spot market transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 75.07%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the previous week. The operating load rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 76.93%, down 3.8%, while the ethylene method PVC powder load rate is 70.23%, up 4.77%. As of July 10, the social inventory of PVC has increased by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous month, but has decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. The inventory in East China is 539,300 tons, and in South China is 52,600 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - The spot market prices for PVC have stabilized, with prices pushed up by the atmosphere of the black commodities market. Currently, the supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal shift towards increased supply and reduced demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement during the off-season remains low, and foreign trade export orders are average, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory. A substantial increase in inventory may require a significant decline in exports. However, due to a recent improvement in the macroeconomic environment and a collective rebound in commodities, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the short term, with the PVC market showing a relatively strong performance. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the time being [3]