Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth, driven by a recovery in the packaged water business and effective cost management [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 25.622 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit of 7.622 billion, up 22.16% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 60.32%, an increase of 1.55 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 29.75%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [2]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the packaged water segment was 9.443 billion, growing by 10.69% year-on-year [2]. - The tea beverage segment generated 10.089 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 19.68% [2]. - Functional beverages and juice drinks reported revenues of 2.898 billion and 2.564 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.62% and 21.28% [2]. - The company added three new water sources in H1 2025, enhancing its competitive advantage in the packaged water business [2]. Investment Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 14.7 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 21%, 15%, and 13% respectively [1]. - The latest closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 33x, 29x, and 25x for 2025-2027 [1]. - The dual business model of "water + tea" is expected to provide stable cash flow and potential for new growth opportunities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Insights - The company's packaging water business is showing signs of recovery, leading to a significant improvement in profitability [3][7] - The financial performance for H1 2025 includes a revenue of 25.622 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit of 7.622 billion, up 22.16% year-on-year [7][8] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 14.707 billion, 16.879 billion, and 19.027 billion respectively, with growth rates of 21%, 15%, and 13% [3][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 42.667 billion - 2024: 42.896 billion - 2025E: 50.325 billion - 2026E: 56.864 billion - 2027E: 63.553 billion - The corresponding net profit figures are: - 2023: 12.079 billion - 2024: 12.123 billion - 2025E: 14.707 billion - 2026E: 16.879 billion - 2027E: 19.027 billion - The report indicates a gross margin of 60.32% for H1 2025, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [3][8] Business Performance - The breakdown of revenue by product line for H1 2025 is as follows: - Packaging water: 9.443 billion, up 10.69% - Tea drinks: 10.089 billion, up 19.68% - Functional drinks: 2.898 billion, up 13.62% - Juice drinks: 2.564 billion, up 21.28% - Other products: 0.629 billion, up 14.78% [7][8] - The company has expanded its water source locations, adding three new sites to enhance its competitive edge [7]

公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 27 日 农夫山泉 (09633) 上 市 公 司 ——艰难时点已过 25 年关注瓶装水业务复苏 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,667 | 42,896 | 49,355 | 55,402 | 61,534 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12,079 | 12,123 | 13,990 | 15,800 | 17,772 | | 同比增长率（%） | 42 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 12 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.58 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 42.28 | 37.55 | 37.08 | 36.13 | 35.23 | | 市盈率 | 2 ...