随着品牌形象回升，公司已走出舆论影响，包装水市占率稳步提升；东方树叶在一元乐享加持下保持较 快动销；果汁产品受益于山姆渠道增速亮眼。 机构：长江证券 研究员：董思远/冯萱 事件描述 农夫山泉2025H1 实现收入256.2 亿元，同比+15.6%，归母净利润76.2 亿元，同比+22.2%。 事件评论 包装水如期恢复，各品类保持增长。2025H1 公司包装水/茶饮料/功能饮料/果汁/其他收入分别为 94.4/100.9/29.0/25.6/6.3 亿元，同比+10.7%/+19.7%/+13.6%/+21.3%/+14.8%。 毛利率同比提升，费用率显著优化，公司盈利能力再创新高。2025H1 公司毛利率同比+1.5pct 至 60.3%，主要因为PET、白糖等原材料价格下降，同时我们预计红瓶水修复、包装水产品结构优化对毛 利率亦有正向贡献。2025H1 公司销售/管理费用率同比-2.9pct/持平，销售费用率下降主要因为广告促销 费、物流等费用下降。公司2025H1 归母净利率达29.7%，同比+1.6pct，再创新高。 展望下半年，包装水基数下降，叠加竞争格局持续变化，包装水市占率或持续提升；一元乐享兑奖 ...

以下文章来源于侃见财经 ，作者侃见财经 侃见财经 . 看见不一样的财经！ 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 消费在回暖，市场在复苏。 来源丨 侃见财经 消费行业的困境正在扭转，一些在港股上市的消费类企业估值开始得到了重构。 根据相关统计显示，自去年9月至今，消费龙头农夫山泉股价涨幅超过了100%，市值再度站上了 5500亿港元大关。如果剔除因为舆论风波对农夫山泉的阶段性影响，其股价水平仅仅回到了2024年 5月水平。 但好在回暖的信号明显，农夫山泉距离历史高位仅有15%的空间。 侃见财经认为，随着农夫山泉企业韧性的凸显，市场将会给予其正确的定价，股价突破历史新高难度 不会太大。 需要说明的是，与以往消费普涨的阶段不同，分化将会成为消费市场的主流，尤其是餐饮类的企业， 其市场考验还在继续，餐饮龙头海底捞依旧还在煎熬，而九毛九、呷哺呷哺等二线品牌已跌入了"尘 埃"。 从市场的表现来看，目前火锅市场消费的热情正在下降，餐饮行业的风向以及消费者的喜好也有了比 较明显的变化。区别于可选消费，包装水、调味品等必需消费市场的抗周期性则比较强，市场的反馈 也明显更加积极。 例如，已经在港股上市的"酱油茅"海天味业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 25.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.62 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [2][6]. Summary by Sections - **Revenue Breakdown**: In H1 2025, the revenue from various product categories was as follows: packaged water 9.44 billion yuan (+10.7%), tea beverages 10.09 billion yuan (+19.7%), functional drinks 2.90 billion yuan (+13.6%), juice 2.56 billion yuan (+21.3%), and others 630 million yuan (+14.8%) [7]. - **Profitability**: The gross margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 60.3% due to a decline in raw material prices such as PET and sugar. The net profit margin reached 29.7%, up by 1.6 percentage points, marking a new high for the company [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The company expects continued growth in market share for packaged water, driven by a favorable competitive landscape and improved brand strength. Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.5 billion yuan, 16.6 billion yuan, and 18.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.29 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.65 yuan [7].

机构：华安证券 研究员：邓欣/韦香怡 公司发布25H 1业绩： 25H1：收入62.06 亿元（同比-18.52%），归母净利润8.05 亿元（同比-28.63%）；25H1 公司毛利率 46.67%（同比-2.6pct），归母净利率13%（同比-1.8pct）； 中期股息：拟于10.24 日按9.17 日股东名册派发中期股息，每股0.118 元（0.129 HKD）。 业绩情况落于预告范围内。 包装水：阶段性承压 行业竞争：25H1 公司包装水业务实现营收52.5 亿元，同比-23.1%；收入占比84.6%，同比-5.1pcts；主 因包装水销量减少、公司加大营销资源投入，以及渠道优化调整； 产品结构：25H1 小规格水/中大规格水/桶装水实现营收31.9/18.3/2.3 亿元，分别同 比-26.2%/-19.4%/-1.5%；高吨价的小规格水下滑更多也给整体水收入端带来压力； 盈利端： 费用率： 25H1 公司销售/ 管理/ 研发费用率分别为30.36%/2.33%/0.24%，同比+2.92pct/+0.43pct/持平； 规模效应下降导致各项费率抬升； 利润率：25H1 公司毛利率46.67%（同比 ...

此外，在上半年，华润饮料毛利率为46.67%，同比下滑2.6pcts。虽然原材料价格下降、生产 端控费降本提供正向帮助，但收入大幅下滑导致规模效应弱化、毛利较低的饮料占比增加、去 库导致渠道投入增加形成主要拖累。 但要看到，饮料市场依旧在增长周期。尼尔森IQ数据显示，在今年6月，国内饮料市场全渠道 增速为4.7%。 比如，农夫山泉财报显示，上半年，其营收同比增长15.6%至256.22亿元。其中，在包装水业 务，农夫山泉销售额同比增长10.7%至94.4亿元。同期，农夫山泉饮料业务收入同比增长 18.6%至161.8亿元。具体而言，即饮茶/功能饮料/果汁/其他产品收入100.9/29.0/25.6/6.3 亿 元，同比增长19.7%/增长13.6%/增长21.3%/增长14.8%。 亦要看到，农夫山泉的增长并不轻松。 记者丨贺泓源 李晴 编辑丨骆一帆 作为对比，2025年上半年，康师傅饮料收入同比下滑2.6%至263.59亿元。其中，茶饮料收入 同比下滑6.3%至106.7亿元；水销售额同比下滑6.0%至23.77亿元；果汁销售额同比下滑13.0% 至29.56亿元；碳酸及其他饮料收入同比增长6.3%至102 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 华润饮料（02460） 港股公司点评 包装水面临竞争压力，重视股东回报 | | | | 报告日期： | 2025-09-01 | | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（港元） | | 11.41 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（港元）16.78/10.30 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本（百万股） | 2,398 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2,232 | | 流通股比例（%） | 93.08 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 274 | | 流通市值（亿港元） | 255 | [公司价格与恒生指数走势比较 Table_Chart] -48% -22% 4% 30% 56% 10/24 1/25 4/25 7/25 华润饮料 恒生指数 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 分析师：韦香怡 执业证书号：S0010525060001 邮箱：weixiangyi@hazq.com [Table_CompanyR ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growth potential of the African consumer market, particularly in essential goods, driven by a young population and increasing penetration rates in essential categories [3][18]. Group 1: Overall Economic and Demographic Insights - Africa's GDP is projected to reach $3 trillion in 2024, accounting for 3.10% of the global economy, with a population of approximately 1.515 billion, representing 18.56% of the global population [3][33]. - The region has a youthful demographic, with a median age of around 21 years and 38% of the population aged 0-14, which supports the growth of essential consumer goods [3][36]. - East and West Africa show significant growth potential due to better business environments and relatively stable exchange rates compared to other regions [3][27]. Group 2: Consumer Market Characteristics - The African consumer market is characterized as an early seller's market, with essential goods penetration and per capita consumption steadily increasing [4][5]. - Essential categories, such as packaged water and beverages, are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9% and 15.7% respectively from 2021 to 2024, while optional categories lag behind with growth rates below 6% [4][5]. - Traditional offline channels dominate the retail landscape, with e-commerce projected to account for only 2% of total retail sales by 2024 [4][5]. Group 3: Regional Insights from Field Research - The field research covered major cities in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania, which together account for approximately 10% of Africa's total population and 8.2% of its GDP [8]. - The average annual spending per capita in these countries ranges from $1,000 to $2,000, with over 35% of expenditures allocated to essential goods [8][11]. - Consumer behavior is heavily influenced by traditional marketing channels, with limited penetration of modern retail formats [9][11]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Challenges - The African market presents opportunities for investment in essential goods due to the expanding population and increasing demand for these products [18][21]. - However, challenges include weak supply chain infrastructure, complex trade policies, and significant currency fluctuations, particularly in countries like Ghana where the currency has depreciated by 154% since 2022 [21][22]. - The operational complexity across different countries necessitates a high level of management capability and adaptability from companies looking to enter the market [23][24]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - International brands like Unilever and Nestlé have established a presence in Africa, while local brands often compete on price [4][20]. - Chinese companies are leveraging their supply chain and organizational management strengths to penetrate the market, focusing on localized innovation and cost-effective manufacturing [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 12.278 billion yuan for 1H25, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 578 million yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, with revenue meeting expectations but profit slightly below due to higher-than-expected expenses [1][2] Revenue Performance - The company experienced strong performance in carbonated and energy drinks, with packaged water showing recovery. Revenue growth was driven by both volume and price increases, with sales volume up 5.5% year-on-year and average selling price (ASP) benefiting from product price hikes [1] - Breakdown by category: - Carbonated drinks revenue increased by 9.4% to 9.38 billion yuan, with double-digit growth in sugar-free carbonated products - Juice revenue rose by 0.8% to 1.67 billion yuan, mainly due to the relaunch of the "Cooler" brand - Packaged water revenue grew by 8.2%, recovering from last year's contraction, driven by the "Ice Dew" brand - Coffee and other beverages saw a 13.8% revenue increase to 640 million yuan, with energy drinks up 36% and strong growth in the core brand "Monster" [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 38.1%, primarily due to the gradual release of product price hike benefits - The sales expense ratio increased by 3.8 percentage points to 26.3%, attributed to increased investment in freezers and expansion of sales points to promote business growth - The management expense ratio remained stable at 1.7%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year - Overall, the net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% due to the rise in sales expense ratio offsetting gross margin improvements [2] Future Strategy - The company plans to maintain high investment levels in the second half of the year to promote growth and is strategically entering the food distribution sector, with non-beverage business from vending machines reaching nearly 200 million yuan in 1H25 - Long-term plans include consolidating advantages in core categories like carbonated drinks and juices while strategically entering the health food sector to enhance operational efficiency through synergy between beverages and food [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains largely unchanged, with the company currently trading at 11 and 10 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios - The target price has been raised by 40% to 4.9 HKD, corresponding to 14 and 12 times the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios, indicating a 20% upside potential for the stock price while maintaining an outperform rating [2]

投资要点： 研究员：訾猛/颜慧菁/张宇轩 本报告导读： 25H1 公司营收较好增长，利润率继续扩张带动利润增长加速，上修盈利预测，并继续维持"增持"评 级。 机构：国泰海通证券 盈利预测与投 资建议。上修公司 25-27 年 EPS 为 1.35/1.62/1.91 元（原预测为1.32/1.57/1.86 元），给予 35 倍PE（25E），目标价51.92港元/股（港元兑人民币0.91 汇率计算），维持"增持"评级。 收入较好成长，毛销差改善显著。25H1 公司实现营收256.22 亿元（YOY15.66%，受益于PET 原材料以 及纸箱等包装物、白糖等原物料采购成本有所下降，公司毛利率+1.55pct 至60.32%。此外期间费用 率-2.90pct（其中销售费率-2.87pct（主要系广告及促销开支较去年同期有所下降，以及物流费率受产品 销售量的品项结构影响有所下降），管理费率和财务费率基本平稳）。此外其他收入及收益净额同比减 少2.32 亿元（主要系利率下降导致存款带来的利息收入减少），其他支持同比增加1.22 亿元（主要系捐 赠支出和汇兑损失），因此最终归母净利率+1.61pct 至29.75%， ...

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to decreased sales of packaged water and increased marketing expenditures [1] Financial Performance - The company recorded revenue of RMB 6,205.6 million, a decrease of 18.5% compared to RMB 7,616.0 million in the same period last year [1] - Gross margin for the reporting period was 46.7%, down by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to revenue decline and changes in product mix [1] - Net profit fell by 28.7% from RMB 1,154.9 million in the first half of 2024 to RMB 823.0 million in the reporting period, with net profit margin decreasing from 15.2% to 13.3% [1]