今日早参 2025 年 7 月 22 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：日本参议院选举：执政联盟落败，关注财政政策变化 7 月 20 日举行的第 27 届日本参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政 联盟丧失参议院多数席位，1955 年以来首次同时丧失参众两院控制权，部分 极右翼政党表现超预期。往前看，关注首相石破茂是否会遭遇内部挑战以及 日本未来财政扩张力度。 风险提示：日本政局动荡；美国继续对日加征关税。 研报发布日期：2025-07-21 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 机械设备：雅江项目开工，何种机械设备受益？ 2025 年 7 月 19 日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程（核心项目墨脱水电站）正式 破土动工。项目主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设 5 座梯级电 站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元。参照三峡水电站静态投资为 1352.66 亿元/动态投 资为 2485.37 亿元，雅鲁藏布 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 07 月 21 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 宏观专题：《难征的税》2025-07-19 关税措施：高开低走。4 月 7 日以前美国在关税方面不断加码升温，在 4 月 9 日后开始逐渐降 温。这导致市场形成 TACO 的认识。 关税收入：增长远不及预期。1-5 月海关实际关税税率的增幅 6.5%远不及理论值 14.5%，因此关 税增收实际上也远不及预期: 一是中国通过转口、抢运的方式，降低了在美国进口中来自中国高关税产品的比重； 二是对墨西哥、加拿大 25%的芬太尼关税在实操中几乎没有生效。 三是可能出现产品层面的调整。税率提升越高的产品总体进口的比重下降更多。 关税的经济影响：为何低于预期？ 中国的出口出现量稳价增，后续将温和回落。一方面,转口抢运降低了中国出口产品总体收到的税 率，降低了关税对出口的负面影响;另一方面,来自非美非转口地的增量订 ...

证券研究报告 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 港股通 2025 年 7 月 21 日│中国香港 饮料 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 7 月 | 21 日│中国香港 | 饮料 | 目标价(港币): | 53.59 | | | | | | 吕若晨 | 研究员 | SAC No. S0570525050002 SFC No. BEE828 lvruochen@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 王可欣 研究员 趋势两条主线。从竞争主线来看，25 年以来，包装水行业的竞争同比缓和， SAC No. S0570524020001 SFC No. BVO215 wangkexin019215@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 目标价 (港币) | 53.59 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 (港币 截至 7 月 18 日) | 43.00 | | 市值 (港币百万) | 483,598 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 ...

Core Viewpoint - Consumer demand in the food and beverage sector is stabilizing at a low level, with structural highlights emerging despite overall weak consumer confidence. The sector is expected to improve marginally in the second half of 2025 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [1][4]. Group 1: Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a marginal improvement in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies to stimulate consumption and encourage childbirth [1]. - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March 2025, with expectations for continued growth in new consumption trends such as spicy snacks, healthy beverages, and sparkling yellow wine [1][4]. - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, is experiencing a valuation correction due to macroeconomic factors and policy impacts, with the fundamentals currently at a bottoming stage [1][4]. Group 2: Mass Food Segment - The mass food sector is expected to see stable demand growth, with high-growth sub-sectors like leisure snacks and soft drinks maintaining innovation and high market activity [4][7]. - The leisure snack market is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented and flavorful products, with ingredients like konjac and high-protein snacks gaining popularity [11][17]. - The soft drink sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly in health-related subcategories, with innovations in products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte water [19][27]. Group 3: Channel Trends - The snack retail channel is expanding, with significant growth in discount supermarkets and membership-based stores, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9]. - E-commerce channels, including short video platforms and community group buying, continue to grow, with notable sales increases during shopping festivals [9][19]. - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing transformations to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and store formats [9][10]. Group 4: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with demand expected to remain under pressure in the second half of 2025, although leading brands are focusing on long-term value creation [4][52]. - The impact of government regulations on consumption patterns is being monitored, with expectations for gradual recovery in consumer demand for baijiu [53][55]. - The pricing dynamics of leading brands like Moutai are stabilizing after significant fluctuations, indicating a potential for recovery in the market [55][57]. Group 5: Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some categories like liquid milk and cheese showing signs of improvement, while overall demand remains weak [30][31]. - The cost of raw milk has decreased, which is expected to benefit dairy companies' profit margins in 2025 [31][37]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist in emerging dairy categories and international markets, as companies expand their product lines and distribution channels [46][47]. Group 6: Frozen Foods and Condiments - The frozen food sector is expected to see revenue growth in the second half of 2025 as companies shift focus to consumer channels amid weak restaurant demand [49][50]. - The condiment industry is facing pressure from external demand but is benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may enhance profit margins [51]. - Companies are actively pursuing innovation and market expansion to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [51].

Overall Summary - The offline retail consumption situation for Q2 2025 shows a general decline in sales across major categories such as food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2][4][6]. Group 1: Retail Performance Overview - The analysis is based on data from the "Shangma Ying Brand CT," which monitors offline retail across various city levels and includes over 30,000 brands and 14 million product barcodes [2]. - The overall sales revenue for Q2 2025 is down approximately 7% year-on-year, with a better performance in order volume compared to average spending, indicating consumer pressure on budgets and prices [4][6]. - The price index for food, beverages, alcohol, and daily chemicals shows a gradual recovery, but remains under pressure, with most categories below the baseline index of 100 [4][6]. Group 2: Key Category Insights - In the food category, frozen products like frozen sausages have shown significant market share growth, while dairy products are stabilizing after previous declines [13][22]. - The beverage category has seen strong growth in sports and plant-based drinks, with some products exceeding 30% year-on-year growth, although the overall market remains competitive [17][29]. - The snack category is experiencing a decline in market share due to health trends and new retail formats, with significant drops in sales for various subcategories [14][22]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average spending per order has increased for certain categories like ready-to-drink juices and plant-based beverages, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-quality products [34][35]. - The average purchase quantity per order has decreased across all selected categories, suggesting a trend towards larger packaging or a focus on value [40]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the frozen food and beverage sectors, with numerous brands vying for market share [46][47].

全球快消品市场 格局演变洞察 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ 目录 01 快消品行业概述 02 全球快消品市场现状 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ 03 快消品行业发展趋势 04 快消品市场竞争格局 目录 RUNLINDA&LI 05 快消品行业渠道变革 06 快消品企业应对策略 07 快消品行业未来展望 08 案例分析 RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿÿ RUNLINDA&LIÿÿÿ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

板块在近段时间迎来一轮整体估值修复，随着业绩拐点的逐步到来，明年情绪 上可以更加乐观。 白酒板块看，当下白酒渠道从加杠杆阶段进入到去杠杆阶段，渠道库存有望逐 步出清，在龙头公司估值较低、预期已经下修，现金分红回报有吸引力的时点，股 价有望领先于业绩触底。 25 年关注政策刺激带动下的商务需求修复，高端白酒有望率先受益实现量价齐 升，次高端白酒承接，更具弹性。大众品 板块今年提前完成去库存，为明年增长蓄力，乳制品、调味品等板块进入改善 周期，龙头率先企稳业绩复苏带动盈利上修，饮料、零食、保健品、餐饮供应链等 细分板块仍有充足的成长驱动力。同时建议更多关注当前估值低具有一定安全垫， 并且有分红提升预期的标的，板块估值修复中反弹空间更高。 核心观点 证券研究报告| 行业深度报告 2024 年 12 月 17 日 签约客户可长按扫码阅读报告： 白酒板块：渠道包袱出清，股价拐点或先于业绩拐点。 经销商盈利水平持续性下降，导致其再投资意愿低迷。从企业应收账款（融资支持回款）数据来看， 24Q3 出现了拐 点，渠道进入去杠杆阶段。预计 2025 年实际销售与报表差异将收敛，产业进入真实动销去库存阶段。复盘 12-14 年上 ...