1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of asphalt has a high pressure, with the total planned production volume in December 2025 being 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% [7]. - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all at relatively low levels, and the overall demand is weak [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 12.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 2.11%. The decline in crude oil prices is expected to weaken the short - term support [8]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount. The social inventory is decreasing, the factory inventory is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing. The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing. It is expected that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2936 - 2988 in the short term [8]. - The positive factors are that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 29.9017%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises decreased by 0.59%, and the estimated maintenance volume increased by 14.29%. It is expected that the supply pressure will be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand of various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all in a relatively low state, indicating weak overall demand [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The decline in crude oil prices is expected to weaken the short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On December 12, the Shandong spot price was 2,930 yuan/ton, and the 02 - contract basis was - 32 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 721,000 tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The factory inventory is 591,000 tons, an increase of 0.51%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 470,000 tons, a decrease of 29.85% [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 02 - contract futures is below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2936 - 2988 in the short term [8] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, inventory, and production of various asphalt futures contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as the prices of different types of asphalt in various regions, such as heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and North China regions [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [16][17][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 asphalt contracts from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the correlation between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 [33][34] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41] - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trend of the weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [43][44] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46] - **Production**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [48][50] - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [51][53] - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55] - **Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the historical trend of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization from 2021 to 2025 [57][58] - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical trend of the estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [59][60] - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64] - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67] - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [72][73] - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report presents the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77] - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [84][85] - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report presents the historical trends of new local special - purpose bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt开工率**: The report presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率) from 2019 to 2025 [93][94][96] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory data [103][104]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner, with a bearish outlook [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2511, the opening price was 3412 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3440 yuan/ton, the highest was 3447 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3401 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.30%, and the trading volume was 17.54 million lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3353 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3385 yuan/ton, the highest was 3392 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3346 yuan/ton, the increase was 1.17%, and the trading volume was 5.38 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic major regional asphalt spot prices remained stable. The rebound of crude oil and asphalt futures had limited positive impact on the asphalt spot market, and the spot market remained cautious. The expected switch of Haisheng Petrochemical to produce residual oil and the production reduction plans of some refineries might cut supply, but the asphalt production switch plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical were implemented, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical, which had already switched production, continued to operate stably. It was expected that the operating load rate of asphalt plants would continue to rise. In terms of demand, the weather in the northern and central markets was favorable, and with the drive of project rush - work, there was some resilience in demand, while the demand in the southern region was affected by typhoon weather. Overall, demand remained stable [6]. 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3720 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Terminal demand was steadily released, and refinery supply continued to be abundant. However, near the end of the month, the circulation of some brand asphalt spot resources decreased, which supported the asphalt price. Today, the quotes of refineries and traders in Shandong region remained stable [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Today, the local storage areas in Foshan and Maoming gradually resumed shipping, but the market demand had not fully recovered, and the quotes of social warehouses remained stable. Although Maoming Petrochemical had completed this month's plan, with abundant social warehouse resources, there was no support for the asphalt price to rise [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][18][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, but the inventory is continuously being depleted. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive fundamentals, positive basis, and positive inventory trends. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States, a downward - sloping MA20 on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract with an increase in short positions [7][9][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1,225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port - diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - plant inventories are continuously being depleted, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the previous day's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, spot prices in different regions, downstream demand construction rates, asphalt coking profits, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss volumes, weekly construction rates, and weekly inventories, as well as their changes and percentage changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt processing [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative value of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the supply - side inventory situation [44][45]. - **Production**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall supply - side production situation [47][48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly asphalt construction rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the supply - side production activity [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of refineries [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73]. - The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand - side situation related to petroleum coke [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of policy on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [88][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand - side activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [96][97][99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production, which may reduce supply pressure next week [7]. - From the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level, indicating weak demand [7]. - From the cost side, the daily processing profit of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - In terms of basis, on September 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and factory inventory continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9]. - In terms of the market, the MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,400 - 3,440 [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased. Refineries reduced production this week, which may reduce supply pressure next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 9, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 110 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 122.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,400 - 3,440 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - The report provides a large amount of data on asphalt futures, including the prices, trading volumes, and inventory changes of different contracts, as well as the production, import, export, and inventory data of asphalt [16].