国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：委油憋库贴水降，沥青裂解难增长 | 供应 | 本周（20251211-1217），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为29.2%，环比下降0.7%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为27.6%，环比下降 0.2%。分析原因主要是本周期虽然华东以及华南地区个别主营炼厂复产以及提产沥青，但山东个别炼厂间歇转产渣油，导致产能利用率下降。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251210-1216)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共35.0万吨，环比减少8.9%。分地区来看，华东以及山东减少明显，山东 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the current situation of the asphalt market, including the changes in production capacity utilization, shipment volume, and price differences. The production capacity utilization has increased due to the resumption of production in some refineries, while the shipment volume has decreased in some regions due to various factors such as changes in downstream demand and project suspension [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2510 and BU2511 are 3,463 yuan/ton and 3,450 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.64% and 0.88%. The trading volume of BU2510 is 31,559 lots, with an increase of 2,446 lots, and the position is 35,992 lots, with a decrease of 3,341 lots. The trading volume of BU2511 is 150,423 lots, with an increase of 37,975 lots, and the position is 244,770 lots, with an increase of 2,860 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts are 64,860 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis (Shandong - 10) is 77 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 yuan compared to the previous day. The 10 - 11 inter - period price difference is 13 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8 yuan. The Shandong - South China price difference is 20 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The East China - South China price difference is 120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price is 3,540 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price is 3,640 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate is 39.59%, with a decrease of 0.63%, and the refinery inventory rate is 27.11%, with an increase of 0.66% [1]. Market Information - **Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 4 - 10, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% increase from the previous period. This was due to the resumption of asphalt production at Hebei Xinghai's large - scale plant and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt led to a decrease in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [13]. - **Modified Asphalt Production Capacity Utilization**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the production capacity utilization of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period and a 0.2% decrease year - on - year. The supply of modified asphalt increased significantly, reaching a new high for the year and approaching the same - period level [13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [7].