1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Report Information - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report [1] - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Date: September 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The asphalt market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. The short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral, and attention should be paid to the trading situation in Shandong [4]. - The "Short BU, Long SC" strategy should be continued [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 34.9%, a 6.8% week - on - week increase. The resumption of production at Hebei Xinhai and Ningbo Keyuan, along with stable production at major refineries, led to this increase. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production was - 491.7 yuan/ton, a 122.3 yuan/ton week - on - week increase [4]. - **Demand**: From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.7 tons, a 3.6% week - on - week decrease. Shipments decreased significantly in the Northeast and Shandong regions. In the Northeast, the increase in the price of low - sulfur asphalt reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while in Shandong, the suspension of surrounding projects led to a decline in terminal demand [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU followed the weak trend of crude oil, and the spot price remained stable. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3637 yuan/ton, a 9 yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuation range was 3633 - 3647 yuan/ton, showing a narrowing trend [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Positions**: Relevant data shows the trends of trading positions and the flow of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil [9][10]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: The report presents the price trends of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit margin in Shandong [13]. - **Spread - Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of basis and monthly spreads in different regions [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. From September 3 - 9, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 3.6% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 18.5%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase [22][26]. - **Supply**: - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: From September 5 - 11, 2025, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 59.9 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease and a 41.9% year - on - year increase. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 72.8 tons, a 1.9% decrease from September 8, and the social inventory of asphalt was 165.3 tons, a 1.4% decrease from September 8 [30]. - **Start - up**: The report shows the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions [33]. - **Inventory**: The report presents the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions and the overall market [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, and it is expected to further decrease next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [7]. - The cost side indicates that the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, while the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - The basis shows that on September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory and factory inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - Overall, it is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and refinery device maintenance volume changed, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate at 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate at 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工 rate at 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate at 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; and the waterproofing membrane开工 rate at 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term cost support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On September 11, the spot price in Shandong was 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 77 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 0.642 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; and port diluted asphalt inventory was 0.32 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42% [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions show a net short position, with an increase in short positions [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3,442 - 3,484 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, price changes, and basis changes of different contracts, as well as data on downstream demand开工 rates, asphalt coking profit spreads, weekly shipments, weekly production, weekly开工 rates, and weekly inventory [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Analysis - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent), which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, which can be used for relative value analysis [31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which helps to understand the price changes in the spot market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, which is useful for understanding the profit differences between different production processes [39]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Side Analysis - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical shipment volume trends of small - sample asphalt enterprises, which helps to understand the sales situation of asphalt [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, which is important for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes, which helps to understand the overall supply situation of asphalt [47]. - **Merey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Merey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt, which helps to understand the production capacity of local refineries [54]. - **开工Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt开工rates, which helps to understand the production activity of asphalt [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trends of estimated maintenance losses, which is important for analyzing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59]. 3.8 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Analysis - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt, which is important for analyzing the overall inventory situation [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [69]. 3.9 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation - It presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import volumes, as well as the import price spread of South Korean asphalt, which is important for analyzing the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72]. 3.10 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Side Analysis - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industrial applications [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption, which helps to understand the overall demand situation [81]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), and various types of asphalt开工rates (heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), which helps to comprehensively analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84]. 3.11 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which is important for comprehensively analyzing the supply - demand relationship of asphalt [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is still high. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the refinery reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - The demand for asphalt is currently below the historical average. The construction and road - related asphalt开工率 (operating rates) are mostly lower than historical levels, although the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased slightly [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is negative but increasing, and the delayed coking profit in Shandong is decreasing. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit is narrowing, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%, and the sample enterprise production was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. The refinery's production cut this week will reduce supply pressure in the future [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 28, the spot price in Shandong was 3,510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05% [8]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the market will be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差 (Main Contract Spread)**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing market structure and arbitrage opportunities [22]. - **沥青原油价格走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend)**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **原油裂解价差 (Crude Oil Cracking Spread)**: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [28]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio)**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships between different energy products [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the regional asphalt spot market [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润 (Asphalt Profit)**: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the profitability of the asphalt industry [37]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势 (Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread)**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **出货量 (Shipment Volume)**: The historical trends of small - sample asphalt enterprise shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of sales [44]. - **稀释沥青港口库存 (Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory)**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the supply situation from the perspective of inventory [46]. - **产量 (Production)**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation [49]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势 (Marine - derived Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production)**: The historical trends of Marine - derived crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **地炼沥青产量 (Local Refinery Asphalt Production)**: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply contribution of local refineries [55]. - **开工率 (Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity level of the asphalt industry [58]. - **检修损失量预估 (Estimated Maintenance Loss)**: The historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单 (Exchange Warehouse Receipts)**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing market supply and demand expectations [64]. - **社会库存和厂内库存 (Social Inventory and Factory Inventory)**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the inventory distribution and market supply and demand situation [67]. - **厂内库存存货比 (Factory Inventory - Stock Ratio)**: The historical trends of the factory inventory - stock ratio from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [70]. - **进出口情况 (Import - Export Situation)** - **沥青出口走势 (Asphalt Export Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt export from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international market demand for domestic asphalt [73]. - **沥青进口走势 (Asphalt Import Trend)**: The historical trends of asphalt import from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of international supply on the domestic market [73]. - **韩国沥青进口价差走势 (Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread)**: The historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the cost - effectiveness of imported asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **石油焦产量 (Petroleum Coke Production)**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **表观消费量 (Apparent Consumption)**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the overall market demand [82]. - **下游需求 (Downstream Demand)** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势 (Highway Construction Fixed - Asset Investment)**: The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in highway construction [85]. - **新增地方专项债走势 (New Local Special Bonds)**: The historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the financial support for infrastructure construction and asphalt demand [86]. - **基础建设投资完成额同比 (Year - on - Year Growth of Infrastructure Investment Completion)**: The historical trends of the year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the overall infrastructure construction situation and asphalt demand [86]. - **下游机械需求走势 (Downstream Machinery Demand)**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction projects [89]. - **压路机销量走势 (Roller Sales)**: The historical trends of roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road compaction [91]. - **沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate)** - **重交沥青开工率 (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **按用途分沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate by Use)**: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity levels of different types of asphalt [97]. - **下游开工情况 (Downstream Operating Conditions)** - **鞋材用sbs改性沥青开工率 (SBS - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate for Footwear)**: The historical trends of SBS - modified asphalt operating rate for footwear from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the footwear industry [100]. - **道路改性沥青开工率 (Road - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of road - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road construction [100]. - **防水卷材改性沥青开工率 (Waterproofing Membrane - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate)**: The historical trends of waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the waterproofing membrane industry [102]. - **供需平衡表 (Supply - Demand Balance Sheet)**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand situation [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]